Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Forecasts a quiet season: 9/4/

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 30, 2018 7:39 am

TSR lowers numbers from the April ones to 9/4/1.Read it at first post of thread
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1

#62 Postby tolakram » Wed May 30, 2018 7:55 am

Here is the TSR skill index based on hindcasting their technique. TSR produced this chart.

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1

#63 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 30, 2018 8:02 am

The abstract of this May 30 forecast:

The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) pre-season forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018
anticipates levels 50% or more below the long-term norm. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to
30th November 2018 and employs data through to late May 2018. The TSR forecast has lowered since
early April 2018 due to considerable cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic
and Caribbean Sea associated with a strengthened Azores high pressure system during April and May.
These cooler waters are expected to persist through the summer and to be accompanied by enhanced trade
winds and enhanced sea level pressures in the regions where hurricanes form. These environmental
factors are all inhibiting to hurricane activity. Despite the expectation for a quiet hurricane season sources
of uncertainty remain primarily concerning how cool the tropical North Atlantic will be in AugustSeptember.
At present there is a 69% likelihood that hurricane activity in 2018 will be in the lowest onethird
of years since 1950.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Forecasts a quiet season: 9/4/

#64 Postby LarryWx » Wed May 30, 2018 8:23 am

cycloneye wrote:TSR lowers numbers from the April ones to 9/4/1.Read it at first post of thread


Looking back at their late May/early June forecasts back to 2000, this is one of the quietest forecasts they've had and is pretty close to the forecasts for 2000, 2002, and 2015. It is quieter than their 2009 forecast.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1

#65 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 30, 2018 9:01 am

So we have two camps in terms of numbers for this season.

There’s those forecasting an average to slightly above average season like currently CSU, and North Carolina State which actually goes hyperactive with their predictions (that’s too overdone IMO).

Then there’s those forecasting a near normal or below average season like TSR, and likely CSU according to little hints of what he may be doing to his numbers in the May release tomorrow morning.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1

#66 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 30, 2018 9:05 am

Woh-hoo,this thread is up there in google list!!!

https://www.google.com.pr/search?rlz=1C ... D2XBi4qgs8
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1

#67 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed May 30, 2018 9:14 am

If CSU changes their forecast to below average tomorrow as expected, that would make NOAA a major outlier.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1

#68 Postby CFLHurricane » Wed May 30, 2018 10:51 am

TSR’s reasoning is certainly interesting, but i think they’re going to eat their hat on this one if Florida’s wet start to the rainy season is any indication.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1

#69 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 30, 2018 11:02 am

CFLHurricane wrote:TSR’s reasoning is certainly interesting, but i think they’re going to eat their hat on this one if Florida’s wet start to the rainy season is any indication.

What do you mean?
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1

#70 Postby CFLHurricane » Wed May 30, 2018 11:23 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
CFLHurricane wrote:TSR’s reasoning is certainly interesting, but i think they’re going to eat their hat on this one if Florida’s wet start to the rainy season is any indication.

What do you mean?


One thing I noticed from the slower seasons (2013-2015) was the underwhelming wet season in Central Florida. The difference was stark in comparison to 2016 and 2017 with the wet season getting off to a consistently vigorous start.

I chalk it up to an atmosphere being favorable for thunderstorms in general also being favorable for cyclones seeing as thunderstorms are the starting point for any cyclone.

This is also likely related to an active tornado season being associated with an active tropical cyclone season. This year just has the same feel as other seasons with above normal activity.

(I can feel the charts incoming to prove me wrong :lol: )
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1

#71 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 30, 2018 11:29 am

CFLHurricane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
CFLHurricane wrote:TSR’s reasoning is certainly interesting, but i think they’re going to eat their hat on this one if Florida’s wet start to the rainy season is any indication.

What do you mean?


One thing I noticed from the slower seasons (2013-2015) was the underwhelming wet season in Central Florida. The difference was stark in comparison to 2016 and 2017 with the wet season getting off to a consistently vigorous start.

I chalk it up to an atmosphere being favorable for thunderstorms in general also being favorable for cyclones seeing as thunderstorms are the starting point for any cyclone.

This is also likely related to an active tornado season being associated with an active tropical cyclone season. This year just has the same feel as other seasons with above normal activity.

(I can feel the charts incoming to prove me wrong :lol: )


2018 Tornado season has been below average.

Image

Image
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1

#72 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 30, 2018 1:01 pm

@RyanMauee
In a year of expected below average tropical storm activity in the Atlantic, and cooler water in the Main Development Region, perhaps the named storms number can be padded with more of these Subtropical Storms
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1

#73 Postby LarryWx » Wed May 30, 2018 4:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:@RyanMauee
In a year of expected below average tropical storm activity in the Atlantic, and cooler water in the Main Development Region, perhaps the named storms number can be padded with more of these Subtropical Storms


I don't know if Ryan is indirectly relating his comment to Alberto, but Alberto was a legitimate storm with ~990 mb minimum SLP. They've been counting and/or naming STSs since the early 1970s. So, that is nothing new. Besides, they easily could have called Alberto tropical if they wanted but held off. One way or another a 990 mb storm, the strongest storm May Gulf storm since 1863 that wasn't extratropical, deserved to be named.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Forecasts a quiet season: 9/4/

#74 Postby LarryWx » Wed May 30, 2018 4:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:TSR lowers numbers from the April ones to 9/4/1.Read it at first post of thread


This TSR forecast for the Lesser Antilles landfalls has only 1 TS and no Hs. So, 1/0/0. Do I think 1/0/0 is realistic? Yes. Here's why:

- Since 1995, the average # of L. Ant. landfalls has only been 1.6/0.7/0.3. So, 1/0/0 isn't that far off from the longterm average.
- Since 1995, 8 of the 23 years had 1/0/0 or less: 2016, 2013, 2009, 2006, 2003, 2002, 2001, and 1997 with 2006, 2003, and 1997 at 0/0/0. So, 1/0/0 or less isn't rare at all since it has occurred about 1 every 3 seasons even during the active era that started in 1995.
- Of those 8, only 4 were oncoming El Nino's. Even one of the 3 0/0/0 years, 2003, wasn't an oncoming El Nino. So, although an oncoming El Nino certainly raises the chance for a very quiet L. Ant. year (4 of the 7 El Nino's were 1/0/0 or quieter there vs only 4 of the other 16), it isn't required. Regardless, there's a higher than average chance there will be El Nino by winter.
- Keeping in mind that May Eurosip forecasts have done pretty well overall since records start in 2008, look at this May 2018 Eurosip forecast for ASO, which has the highest SLPs vs norms in the Caribbean:

https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax-gre ... _vDxOZ.png
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#75 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 31, 2018 9:24 am

CSU update is just out! Surprised that he didn’t lower the numbers even more than what he did.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1002187491363901440


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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#76 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:51 pm

Weather channel reduces forecast to 11/4/2.

Image

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/vi ... ok-updated
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#77 Postby ouragans » Sat Jun 30, 2018 11:17 am

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 2 forecast=10/4/1

#78 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:04 am

CSU downgrade the numbers from the May ones (14/6/2) to 10/4/1 (With Alberto 11) Read forecast here.

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 2 forecast=10/4/1

#79 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:05 am

Klotzbach is now saying 11/4/1 (includes Alberto), to only 10 more named storms this season.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 2 forecast=10/4/1

#80 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:14 am

An ACE of 60 is probably the most telling number. Much quieter than recent times!
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