Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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cycloneye
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 2 forecast=10/4/1 (11 with Alberto)

#81 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:15 am

Analog years are:

1986
1990
1994
2009
2014

Code: Select all

Year NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC
1986 6 23.25 4 10.50 0 0.00 36 37
1990 14 72.25 8 26.75 1 1.00 97 100
1994 7 28.75 3 7.25 0 0.00 32 35
2009 9 30.00 3 12.00 2 3.50 53 70
2014 8 35.00 6 17.75 2 3.75 67 82
Average 9.0 39.5 5.1 16.5 1.3 2.0 63 71
2018 Forecast 11 45 4 15 1 2 60 70
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 2 forecast=10/4/1 (11 with Alberto)

#82 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:05 am

10/4/1 for the rest of the season seems very reasonable. In my opinion we may only see 8-9 more storms.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 2 forecast=10/4/1

#83 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:02 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:An ACE of 60 is probably the most telling number. Much quieter than recent times!


A lot of us that were affected by Harvey, Irma, etc. cheer for this to be true, but as we all know....one. What I've been noticing this season, and maybe it's simply because I'm hypersensitive this year, is that along the Gulf Coast, we've had more potential home grown systems this season.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#84 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:19 pm

alor city need rest in 2018 too rebuild like Texas ans key west hope what ever form are sea fish
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 5 forecast: 9/4/1

#85 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:51 am

TSR remains at 9/4/1 in the July 5 forecast.They say there are uncertainties about the subtropical Atlantic on how many systems form in that area due to the very warm waters. Read the TSR
forecast at the first post of thread list of experts
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 5 forecast: 9/4/1

#86 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:07 am

wow, ACE of 36. That's pretty low
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 5 forecast: 9/4/1

#87 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:11 am

NotSparta wrote:wow, ACE of 36. That's pretty low


The actual number is 2.4.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 5 forecast: 9/4/1

#88 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:18 am

cycloneye wrote:
NotSparta wrote:wow, ACE of 36. That's pretty low


The actual number is 2.4.


I know that's the current ACE, but 36 for the whole season is the lowest ive seen
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 5 forecast: 9/4/1

#89 Postby canes92 » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:45 am

Predictions calling for quieter season it seems, is it possible that the active cycle that started in 1995 has come to an end? Of course that don't mean there couldn't be any dangerous storms that make landfall.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 5 forecast: 9/4/1

#90 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:32 pm

Time for a much-needed break after the active 2016 and hyperactive 2017 seasons.

By the way, we have a storm called Maria and it could turn into a category 5 very soon.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 5 forecast: 9/4/1

#91 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:24 pm

canes92 wrote:Predictions calling for quieter season it seems, is it possible that the active cycle that started in 1995 has come to an end? Of course that don't mean there couldn't be any dangerous storms that make landfall.


El Nino is increasingly likely and is probably playing a role in any reduced forecast numbers we're seeing.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 5 forecast: 9/4/1

#92 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:52 am

If Beryl and 96L somehow both managed hurricane intensity (unlikely but possible) that
would throw a wrench into these predictions already, would only leave them 2 more
Hurricanes for the rest of season.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 5 forecast: 9/4/1

#93 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:57 am

If I were betting I would take an over for the numbers from CSU and TSR , they seem to low
I think a near average season most likely.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 2 forecast=10/4/1 (11 with Alberto)

#94 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:55 am

cycloneye wrote:Analog years are:

1986
1990
1994
2009
2014

Code: Select all

Year NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC
1986 6 23.25 4 10.50 0 0.00 36 37
1990 14 72.25 8 26.75 1 1.00 97 100
1994 7 28.75 3 7.25 0 0.00 32 35
2009 9 30.00 3 12.00 2 3.50 53 70
2014 8 35.00 6 17.75 2 3.75 67 82
Average 9.0 39.5 5.1 16.5 1.3 2.0 63 71
2018 Forecast 11 45 4 15 1 2 60 70


It's nice to know that the season is half over and it's only July 11. :D
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 5 forecast: 9/4/1

#95 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:02 am

AtlanticWind wrote:If I were betting I would take an over for the numbers from CSU and TSR , they seem to low
I think a near average season most likely.

i agree i think wont be bad as 2017 but dead as csu saying other way saying below average more like average season
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 5 forecast: 9/4/1

#96 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:10 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:If I were betting I would take an over for the numbers from CSU and TSR , they seem to low
I think a near average season most likely.

TSR's forecast especially has a high chance to bust. 36 ACE for the whole season? ACE is already at 12, that would be only 24 ACE for the rest of the season (which was less that what 2013 had at peak season). CSU's prediction of 60 ACE seems more reasonable but even that may be too low.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#97 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:12 pm

What CSU was betting on was that the MDR would remain well below normal, but it’s actually slightly above normal and getting warmer
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#98 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:04 pm

A certain pro did go 16/8/3. Same one who went 18 storms and an ACE over 180 last year when everyone was convinced we would have el niño
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU: 12/5/1 (Includes Alberto,Beryl,Chris)

#99 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:02 am

The CSU August forecast is up at the first post list. 12/5/1 that includes the TC's already in the books.

Below is the Abstract:

ABSTRACT
Information obtained through July 2018 indicates that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane
season will have activity below the median 1981-2010 season. We estimate that the
remainder of 2018 will have about 3 hurricanes (average is 5.5), 9 named storms (average
is 10.5), 40 named storm days (average is 58), 12 hurricane days (average is 21.3), 1
major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane (average is 2.0) and 2 major hurricane days (average is
3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be below the longperiod
average. We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net
Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2018 to be below their long-term averages for the
remainder of the season.

The tropical Atlantic remains anomalously cool, and vertical wind shear across
the Caribbean has been quite strong over the past month. The tropical Atlantic has also
been very dry in July. All these conditions tend to be associated with quieter Atlantic
hurricane seasons. There remains uncertainty as to if an El Niño will develop over the
next few months. However, regardless if conditions remain in ENSO-neutral territory or
anomalously warm to a weak El Niño event, we believe that the hurricane-unfavorable
conditions in the Atlantic are likely to persist over the next several months.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU: 12/5/1 (Includes Alberto,Beryl,Chris)

#100 Postby SoupBone » Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:26 am

cycloneye wrote:The CSU August forecast is up at the first post list. 12/5/1 that includes the TC's already in the books.

Below is the Abstract:

ABSTRACT
Information obtained through July 2018 indicates that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane
season will have activity below the median 1981-2010 season. We estimate that the
remainder of 2018 will have about 3 hurricanes (average is 5.5), 9 named storms (average
is 10.5), 40 named storm days (average is 58), 12 hurricane days (average is 21.3), 1
major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane (average is 2.0) and 2 major hurricane days (average is
3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be below the longperiod
average. We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net
Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2018 to be below their long-term averages for the
remainder of the season.

The tropical Atlantic remains anomalously cool, and vertical wind shear across
the Caribbean has been quite strong over the past month. The tropical Atlantic has also
been very dry in July. All these conditions tend to be associated with quieter Atlantic
hurricane seasons. There remains uncertainty as to if an El Niño will develop over the
next few months. However, regardless if conditions remain in ENSO-neutral territory or
anomalously warm to a weak El Niño event, we believe that the hurricane-unfavorable
conditions in the Atlantic are likely to persist over the next several months.


This mirrors the forecast from our paid weather service. The Atlantic is forecast to remain an unfavorable area for development. My concern is a home-grown system, ramping up quickly because of the GoM SST's, which are really high right now. All it would take would be a few days of reduced shear, and then we have a big problem.
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