The CSU August forecast is up at the first post list
. 12/5/1 that includes the TC's already in the books.
Below is the Abstract:
Information obtained through July 2018 indicates that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane
season will have activity below the median 1981-2010 season. We estimate that the
remainder of 2018 will have about 3 hurricanes (average is 5.5), 9 named storms (average
is 10.5), 40 named storm days (average is 58), 12 hurricane days (average is 21.3), 1
major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane (average is 2.0) and 2 major hurricane days (average is
3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be below the longperiod
average. We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net
Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2018 to be below their long-term averages for the
remainder of the season.
The tropical Atlantic remains anomalously cool, and vertical wind shear across
the Caribbean has been quite strong over the past month. The tropical Atlantic has also
been very dry in July. All these conditions tend to be associated with quieter Atlantic
hurricane seasons. There remains uncertainty as to if an El Niño will develop over the
next few months. However, regardless if conditions remain in ENSO-neutral territory or
anomalously warm to a weak El Niño event, we believe that the hurricane-unfavorable
conditions in the Atlantic are likely to persist over the next several months.
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