Big ones for 2018

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Hurricaneman
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Big ones for 2018

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:47 am

Here is my list of storms for 2018 with big hits in caps

Alberto: forms off the east coast from a frontal trough June 15th and peaks as it moves northeast at 50 mph June 17

Beryl: forms in the western Caribbean on June 16th and moves west making landfall in Belize on June 17 at peak intensity at 45mph

Chris: first hurricane of the season forms in the Bahamas from a stalled front July 3rd and peaks at 80mph near Bermuda July 8th

DEBBY: forms in the eastern Caribbean on July 15 and intensifies into a 135mph hurricane upon first landfall in western Cuba July 17 and re-emerges as a 110mph hurricane and gains peak intensity in the central GOM as a 140mph hurricane on July 18th and makes landfall as a 120mph hurricane around Morgan City LA on July 19th

Ernesto: forms near the coast of Africa August 12th and peaks at 125mph August 15th and goes north and out to sea

Florence: forms at 10n 45w on August 16th but is sheared by Ernesto until 60w on August 17th and reaches peak intensity in the central Caribbean as an 85 mph hurricane August 19th and landfalls in Honduras as a 60 mph tropical storm August 20th

Gordon: forms in the GOM August 17 and make landfall in Brownsville as a 50mph TS on August 18th

HELENE: forms north of PR August 20th and rapidly intensifys into a 160 mph hurricane at Bahamas landfall August 22nd and peaks the first time later that day at 185mph into Kendall, Fl and re-emerges as a 135mph hurricane later that day and peaks again at 195mph in the central GOM turning north with a little east hitting shear and dry air land falling in Mobile AL as a 120mph hurricane August 25th

Isaac: forms from tropical wave near CV islands August 27th and peaks as a 80mph hurricane in the central Atlantic August 29th and gets blasted by shear and dies

Joyce: forms near Tampa September 1st and stalls in Tampa bay and peaks as a 40mph TS heading north dying over Gainesville

Kirk: forms near Bermuda from a combination of a front and tropical wave on September 3rd making landfall in Bermuda at peak intensity of 80mph on September 4th

Leslie: forms near the Azores September 6th and peaks at 85mph September 8th and makes landfall in Normandy France as a 50mph Ts September 11

MICHAEL: forms from a tropical wave around Antigua September 13 and intensifies as it approaches the Bahamas as a 170mph hurricane September 15 as it turns north hitting Cape Hatteras as a 135mph hurricane September 18 and a second landfall near Levittown NY as a 120 mph hurricane the next day

Nadine: forms from a tropical wave NE of the islands September 21 and peaks the next day at 45mph as it gets sheared out by the tutt

Oscar: forms near Hispaniola September 25th and peaked near Bermuda as a 125mph hurricane missing landfall on September 28th

Patty: last MDR storm of the year forms in the central Atlantic October 1st and peaks at 100mph on its way out to sea October 5th

Rafael: forms in the eastern Caribbean October 5th and peaks at 75mph whole land falling in PR October 7th

SARA: strongest storm of the season forms October 12th in the western Caribbean and kind of meanders northeast of Honduras rapidly intensifying to 205mph and a similar pressure to Wilma October 15th before moving to the Yucatán channel October 18 and turning northeast into Tampa as a 160mph hurricane October 20th making another landfall in Wilmington NC as a 120mph hurricane October 21 and another landfall in Buzzards Bay, MA as a 80 mph hurricane late that day

TONY: form from a feeder band from Sara October 18 and rapidly intensifies to 145mph before moving west into Honduras as a 130 mph hurricane October 20th

Valerie: Forms 25n 50w October 31 and peaks at 60mph November 2nd

William: forms in the western Caribbean November 4th and peaks at 85mph November 6th and makes landfall in Beaumont as a 50 mph Ts November 10

Alpha: forms near the Canary Islands November 30 and hits Morocco at peak as a 50mph TS December 2nd

Beta: forms near key west December 15th and peaks off the Carolinas as a 65mph Ts December 16th

Equals 23/15/8
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#2 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:32 pm

Isaac. Got to have that last original I name retired eventually. Florence and Gordon might cause trouble.
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#3 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:08 am

Self-explanatory. Initially, this was written not as a prediction, but given the increasing favorability of the Atlantic basin for tropical cyclogenesis next season here you go

http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season_(Xtyphooncyclonex)
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:25 am

Here's how I fantasize the season, based on how we have been describing things.

Image

20 named storms, 13 hurricanes, 7 majors

H Alberto
February 22 - 24 (indeed, uses warm Gulf Stream and hybrid characteristics)
70 kt / 984 mb

TS Beryl
May 25 - 28
45 kt / 1006 mb
Landfall Florida: 45 kt / 1006 mb

TS Chris
June 30 - July 6
60 kt / 997 mb
Landfall Guyana: 55 kt / 999 mb

MH Debby

July 15 - 20
110 kt / 960 mb
Landfall NE Honduras: 90 kt / 979 mb
Landfall Belize: 100 kt / 968 mb

TS Ernesto
July 31 - August 3
55 kt / 992 mb

MH Florence
August 2 - 21
130 kt / 932 mb
Landfall Fogo Island: 115 kt / 952 mb
Landfall Guadeloupe: 105 kt / 946 mb
Landfall S Dominican Rep.: 130 kt / 932 mb
Landfall E tip Cuba: 60 kt / 989 mb
Landfall SE Florida: 105 kt / 961 mb

H Gordon
August 5 - 9
65 kt / 995 mb
Landfall Yucatan: 50 kt / 1000 mb
Landfall NE Mexico: 65 kt / 995 mb

MH Helene
August 21 - September 2
155 kt / 904 mb
Landfall St. Vincent: 150 kt / 929 mb
Landfall Jamaica: 150 kt / 910 mb
Landfall Cayman Brac: 125 kt / 932 mb
Landfall W tip Cuba: 115 kt / 934 mb
Landfall Louisiana: 100 kt / 946 mb

TS Isaac
August 23 - 24
35 kt / 1011 mb

H Joyce

September 3 - 8
80 kt / 986 mb
Landfall W tip Cuba: 60 kt / 997 mb
Landfall Florida: 50 kt / 992 mb

MH Kirk
September 4 - 13
110 kt / 954 mb

MH Leslie
September 7 - 18
125 kt / 938 mb

H Michael

September 15 - 22
90 kt / 972 mb

MH Nadine
September 28 - October 8
105 kt / 946 mb
Landfall Madeira: 100 kt / 946 mb
Landfall Spain: 80 kt / 966 mb

TS Oscar
October 6 - 9
40 kt / 1006 mb

TS Patty
October 7 - 8
35 kt / 1005 mb
Landfall S Mexico: 35 kt / 1005 mb

H Rafael
October 11 - 16
75 kt / 976 mb

MH Sara
October 14 - 24
185 kt / 867 mb (no, not misprints; resembles Patricia)
Landfall Trinidad: 30 kt / 1010 mb
Landfall Bonaire: 75 kt / 990 mb
Landfall Curacao: 70 kt / 991 mb
Landfall Aruba: 70 kt / 992 mb
Landfall N tip Colombia: 55 kt / 992 mb
Landfall Providenciales: 95 kt / 967 mb
Landfall Florida: 120 kt / 930 mb
Landfall North Carolina: 90 kt / 942 mb
Landfall New Jersey: 75 kt / 948 mb

TS Tony
October 30 - November 2
60 kt / 981 mb

H Valerie
November 11 - 15
75 kt / 991 mb
Landfall Panama: 75 kt / 991 mb
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:51 am

:uarrow: Would be VERY surprised to see another high-latitude Tropical Atlantic Irma-like track that does what it did anytime soon. Something heading North or Northeast out of the Western Caribbean in October similar to Irene (1999) or Wilma would not surprise me. Kind of surprised that we didn’t see anything more significant in the Western Caribbean this past October.
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#6 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:09 pm

I expect a couple big ones for 2018, most likely between August and October. Watch out in the F-M part of the alphabet.
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:31 pm

Something to note: on the 2018 list, only four names have been retired since the list was introduced (Gilbert, Joan, Keith and Sandy), and there have been no double-retirements.
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#8 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:35 am

Gordon.

Every year ending with an 8 since 1968 has seen either a nasty one or a solid candidate for such a storm starting with the letter G.

1968 - Gladys
1978 - Greta
1988 - Gilbert
1998 - Georges
2008 - Gustav

-Andrew92
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#9 Postby J_J99 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:20 pm

Helene.... Isaac.... Joyce..... the big three of '18?
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