Big ones for 2018

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DANKENGINE420
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#21 Postby DANKENGINE420 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:43 pm

ditto shell mound

these "big ones" i predicted are just majors but fishies tbh
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#22 Postby DANKENGINE420 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:44 pm

anyways what about big ones for epac (#teamlane2018)

us aussies got marcus
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#23 Postby Weather150 » Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:52 pm

Shell Mound wrote:I don't have any "big ones" for 2018 because I expect El Niño to be in place. 2019 has the potential to feature some big names as El Niño weakens/dissipates. The Atlantic is likely to be extremely warm in 2019, given post-El Niño heat transfer so soon after the last big El Niño (2015–16). The heat transfer from that event was evident in the warm +AMO in 2017 vs. 2015–16. That heat has not fully dissipated and is likely to be a factor combined with even more heat transfer in 2019. 2019 has the potential to be on a par with 2017 or 1933 if other cards are played right. The PDO is likely to be more negative in 2019 than in the past several years combined, which would favour a stronger subtropical ridge, combined with warm +AMO and likely lower sea-level pressures than in 2018. Don't be surprised if 2019 becomes one of the greatest (most active and intense) Atlantic seasons of all time. Yes, this is a bold hypothesis, but I'm willing to make it.

I think the chance of an El-Nino forming in 2018 is pretty slim.
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#24 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:55 pm

Weather150 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:I don't have any "big ones" for 2018 because I expect El Niño to be in place. 2019 has the potential to feature some big names as El Niño weakens/dissipates. The Atlantic is likely to be extremely warm in 2019, given post-El Niño heat transfer so soon after the last big El Niño (2015–16). The heat transfer from that event was evident in the warm +AMO in 2017 vs. 2015–16. That heat has not fully dissipated and is likely to be a factor combined with even more heat transfer in 2019. 2019 has the potential to be on a par with 2017 or 1933 if other cards are played right. The PDO is likely to be more negative in 2019 than in the past several years combined, which would favour a stronger subtropical ridge, combined with warm +AMO and likely lower sea-level pressures than in 2018. Don't be surprised if 2019 becomes one of the greatest (most active and intense) Atlantic seasons of all time. Yes, this is a bold hypothesis, but I'm willing to make it.

I think the chance of an El-Nino forming in 2018 is pretty slim.

Even if it does form, which is not the likeliest scenario,I doubt the Atlantic will have no strong storms.
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#25 Postby BadLarry95 » Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:14 pm

Florence
Isaac
Michael

(Florence and Isaac are the last remaining original F and I names from the 6 lists)
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#26 Postby NotSparta » Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:02 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Weather150 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:I don't have any "big ones" for 2018 because I expect El Niño to be in place. 2019 has the potential to feature some big names as El Niño weakens/dissipates. The Atlantic is likely to be extremely warm in 2019, given post-El Niño heat transfer so soon after the last big El Niño (2015–16). The heat transfer from that event was evident in the warm +AMO in 2017 vs. 2015–16. That heat has not fully dissipated and is likely to be a factor combined with even more heat transfer in 2019. 2019 has the potential to be on a par with 2017 or 1933 if other cards are played right. The PDO is likely to be more negative in 2019 than in the past several years combined, which would favour a stronger subtropical ridge, combined with warm +AMO and likely lower sea-level pressures than in 2018. Don't be surprised if 2019 becomes one of the greatest (most active and intense) Atlantic seasons of all time. Yes, this is a bold hypothesis, but I'm willing to make it.

I think the chance of an El-Nino forming in 2018 is pretty slim.

Even if it does form, which is not the likeliest scenario,I doubt the Atlantic will have no strong storms.


2015, with a super El Nino, was still able to spawn storms such as Joaquin
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#27 Postby bg1 » Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:19 pm

I've been meaning to respond. Here is my hypothetical season in motion, or you can just read below…



Link: https://youtu.be/0l56QOTuFFE

TD One (July 21-22) 30 kts / 35 mph
Some random western Caribbean low that forms S of Jamaica and dissipates N of Honduras.
ACE: 0.0000

TS Alberto (August 11-15) 50 kt / 60 mph
Bahamas depression heads NW and hits WPB, Florida (50 mph) and the Panhandle (60 mph). Curves back NE after reaching Mississippi and then dissipates.
ACE: 2.2100

TS Beryl (August 25-29) 55 kt / 65 mph
Depression forms in W Gulf, heads NNE and then NNW into Galveston at peak (65 mph). Fortunately, this storm keeps moving N until it dies out.
ACE: 2.155

H2 Chris (August 27-Sept 13) 85 kt / 100 mph
Tropical storm forms SE of Cape Verde islands and takes its sweet merry time organizing, causing flashbacks to 2013-2015. Heads over Martinique as a moderate TS, and finally becomes the first hurricane of the season on Sept 4. Reaches peak twice heading NNW before first landfall on the Yucatan (75 mph). Turns more NW before final landfall E of Galveston Sept 10 (85 mph).
ACE: 21.1625

TS Debby (Sept 9-18) 55 kt / 65 mph
Depression forms in MDR and becomes named late the next day. Misses Antilles to the N and attempts a recurve toward Canada but is swallowed by another low.
ACE: 4.205

SS Ernesto (Sept 9-15, Pt until 16th) 50 kts/60 mph
Happy little subtropical storm out in the middle of nowhere.
ACE: 2.7050

TS Florence (Sept 10-14) 45 kt / 50 mph
Meandering depression off Southeast coast heads toward Charleston as a TS then makes a U-turn, then a wider U-turn, before being eaten by that low that would take Debby four days later.
ACE: 1.9350

TS Gordon (Sept 10-17, PT until 18th) 55 kt / 65 mph
Western Caribbean storm heads NW into Cuba (60 mph) and Alabama (65 mph). Curves NE, staying just E of the Appalachians and dissipates in Maryland.
ACE: 4.7325

C2 Helene (Sept 10-21) 90 kts / 105 mph
Tropical storm forms in BOC and drifts SE, then drifts back WNW toward Mexico, slowly strengthening into a large hurricane. Abruptly cuts NNE, deciding to slowly parallel Mexico and later Texas as a Category 2, causing extensive flooding, wind damage, and beach erosion. Eventually strikes Louisiana at 85 mph.
Helene would later be retired due to the damage in Mexico.
ACE: 17.2500

C1 Isaac (Sept 10-14) 75 kts / 85 mph
Eastern Caribbean TS (!) heads NW, scraping northeast Puerto Rico (80 mph). Curves into middle Cuba (80 mph) and gets shredded by the mountains.
ACE: 17.2500

TS Joyce (Sept 10-20) 60 kts / 70 mph
A very cruel TS. Forms quite a bit NNE of Puerto Rico and begins to recurve E of the Bahamas. It then proceeds to draw Florence away from the southeast coast and swallow it. Accelerating to the it would then absorb Debby four days later. Heads out for the higher latitudes… but is tackled from behind?!
ACE: 10.0275

C3 Kirk (Sept 10-21, PT until 25th) 110 kt / 125 mph
Tropical storm forms in the MDR, misses Antilles and recurves while giving trackers twin Category 3s to enjoy safely! It must have hated Joyce for it shreds it to bits while racing ENE near Canada. Turns into a powerful extratropical storm and dissipates four days later far N of the Azores.
ACE: 31.1250

C4 Leslie (Sept 10-18, PT until 20th) 125 kt / 145 mph
Tropical storm forms SW of the Cape Verde islands, starts to recurve 2.5 days later, peaks about the apex of the curve and turns extratropical NE of the Azores. Dissipates just SW of Britain.
ACE: 25.6050

TS Michael (Sept 10-17) 55 kt / 65 mph
Tropical storm forms SW of Azores heading SW, performs a clockwise loop, then turns NE before dissipation.
ACE: 5.2600

TS Nadine (Oct 13-17, PT until 18th) 50 kts / 60 mph
After a long lull, another storm finally appears several hundred miles S of Newfoundland. Heads W before curving to the NE and striking the eastern portion of NFW (50 mph).
ACE: 3.1375

Total: 14/5/2
ACE: 136.9





By the way, did you notice anything... strange... with the timing of the storms?



Image
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#28 Postby NotSparta » Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:30 pm

bg1 wrote:I've been meaning to respond. Here is my hypothetical season in motion, or you can just read below…



Link: https://youtu.be/0l56QOTuFFE

text removed


Yeah like half of them form September 10
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#29 Postby Kazmit » Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:30 pm

:uarrow: 11 simultaneous storms would certainly be... interesting to see.
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#30 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:22 pm

The Atlantic's first (and likely only) set of octuplets? :lol:
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#31 Postby StruThiO » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:01 am

:uarrow: :lol: :lol:

I think the "big one" depends on ENSO state. If we have an el nino, the big one is likelier to be closer to the beginning of the alphabet due to lack of quantity of storms. Otherwise, It'll probably be "I" again imo. Without any sound science to back it up, looking at the names Helene Leslie and Patty sound the scariest plus Gordon always seems to be decently strong.
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#32 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu May 17, 2018 1:47 am

Based on my research from looking at previous seasons in the active era, the best chance for a big one earlier in the alphabet would be if it forms when the peak starts (August, ala Bonnie 98 or Bret '99), and takes a damaging path similar to Fran or Harvey. Erika, Dean and Charley all occurred in August, and they are the last legit early alphabet retirements we've had to come from a normal season or circumstance, as Dennis formed in 2005 with an unusually active July, and Allison was a rare flooding event that lasted through several states and weeks.
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#33 Postby HurricaneBrain » Fri May 25, 2018 12:28 pm

Gordon and Isaac will be the big ones.
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Re: Big ones for 2018

#34 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:32 pm

BadLarry95 wrote:Florence
Isaac
Michael

(Florence and Isaac are the last remaining original F and I names from the 6 lists)


You were correct about Florence and incorrect about Isaac. Michael is up for grabs now though :eek:
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