Hypothetical Season

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Hypothetical Season

#1 Postby Pressure » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:42 am

In the Off-Season (Dec~April), I really miss the season rush (ok not the hurricanes hitting people etc.). So I usually make seasons just as Potential analogs for a future season , who knows. Feel free to post as many Hypothetical Seasons as you wish! I’ll put mine below :darrow:
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:24 pm

Pressure wrote:In the Off-Season (Dec~April), I really miss the season rush (ok not the hurricanes hitting people etc.). So I usually make seasons just as Potential analogs for a future season , who knows. Feel free to post as many Hypothetical Seasons as you wish! I’ll put mine below :darrow:

I see nothing below
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#3 Postby Pressure » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:41 pm

Hypothetical Season:
12/6/3

Alberto TS 60 999
May 22-26

Beryl TS 70 992
Jun 18-22

Chris C2 105 977
Jul 27- Aug 2

Debby C3 125 954
Aug 9-22

Ernesto TS 50 1000
Aug 15-17

Florence C2 110 974
Aug 23-30

Gordon C1 85 987
Sep 1-11

Helene C4 155 939
Sep 6-19

Isaac TS 70 990
Sep 12-17

Joyce C5 175 907
Sep 29- Oct 2


Kirk TS 65 1002
Oct 9-11[exits Basin]-14

Leslie TS 60 996
Oct 28- Nov 3




Image
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#4 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:11 pm

Here is a hypothetical 2018 season I made using the Wikipedia WPTC Track Maker:

https://imgur.com/BO5tes7


16 tropical depressions, 14 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes. Have not calculated ACE yet.

C1 Alberto June 29-July 5 75 mph, 987 mbar
TS Beryl July 14-16 50 mph, 999 mbar
TD Three July 27-28 35 mph, 1009 mbar
C3 Chris August 11-20 120 mph, 961 mbar
C4 Debby August 19-31 145 mph, 942 mbar
TS Ernesto August 25-29 65 mph, 997 mbar
C2 Florence September 1-10 110 mph, 968 mbar
TS Gordon September 5-6 45 mph, 1003 mbar
C4 Helene September 8-22 150 mph, 936 mbar
TS Isaac September 16-19 40 mph, 1006 mbar
C3 Joyce September 25-29 115 mph, 964 mbar
C1 Kirk September 30-October 4 80 mph, 982 mbar
TD Thirteen October 3-5 35 mph, 1007 mbar
C4 Leslie* October 12-19 150 mph, 929 mbar
C1 Michael October 22-26 85 mph, 979 mbar
TS Nadine November 29-December 2 60 mph, 990 mbar

*Strongest storm of the season
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#5 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:29 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Here is a hypothetical 2018 season I made using the Wikipedia WPTC Track Maker:

https://imgur.com/BO5tes7


16 tropical depressions, 14 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes. Have not calculated ACE yet.

C1 Alberto June 29-July 5 75 mph, 987 mbar
TS Beryl July 14-16 50 mph, 999 mbar
TD Three July 27-28 35 mph, 1009 mbar
C3 Chris August 11-20 120 mph, 961 mbar
C4 Debby August 19-31 145 mph, 942 mbar
TS Ernesto August 25-29 65 mph, 997 mbar
C2 Florence September 1-10 110 mph, 968 mbar
TS Gordon September 5-6 45 mph, 1003 mbar
C4 Helene September 8-22 150 mph, 936 mbar
TS Isaac September 16-19 40 mph, 1006 mbar
C3 Joyce September 25-29 115 mph, 964 mbar
C1 Kirk September 30-October 4 80 mph, 982 mbar
TD Thirteen October 3-5 35 mph, 1007 mbar
C4 Leslie* October 12-19 150 mph, 929 mbar
C1 Michael October 22-26 85 mph, 979 mbar
TS Nadine November 29-December 2 60 mph, 990 mbar

*Strongest storm of the season

This may be a little off-topic, but how do you make a season tracking chart like that? I'd be interested in making one for my 1979 Typhoon Season reanalysis.
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#6 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:12 am

1900hurricane wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Here is a hypothetical 2018 season I made using the Wikipedia WPTC Track Maker:

https://imgur.com/BO5tes7


16 tropical depressions, 14 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes. Have not calculated ACE yet.

C1 Alberto June 29-July 5 75 mph, 987 mbar
TS Beryl July 14-16 50 mph, 999 mbar
TD Three July 27-28 35 mph, 1009 mbar
C3 Chris August 11-20 120 mph, 961 mbar
C4 Debby August 19-31 145 mph, 942 mbar
TS Ernesto August 25-29 65 mph, 997 mbar
C2 Florence September 1-10 110 mph, 968 mbar
TS Gordon September 5-6 45 mph, 1003 mbar
C4 Helene September 8-22 150 mph, 936 mbar
TS Isaac September 16-19 40 mph, 1006 mbar
C3 Joyce September 25-29 115 mph, 964 mbar
C1 Kirk September 30-October 4 80 mph, 982 mbar
TD Thirteen October 3-5 35 mph, 1007 mbar
C4 Leslie* October 12-19 150 mph, 929 mbar
C1 Michael October 22-26 85 mph, 979 mbar
TS Nadine November 29-December 2 60 mph, 990 mbar

*Strongest storm of the season

This may be a little off-topic, but how do you make a season tracking chart like that? I'd be interested in making one for my 1979 Typhoon Season reanalysis.

You have to install the WPTC track maker. It is a little complex to install, instructions are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:WikiProject_Tropical_cyclones/Tracks. Basically it uses a c-compiler to take lines of HURDAT OR ATCF and produce a track with them.
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#7 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Mar 17, 2018 12:10 am

2018: El Niño Scenario

Image
Fig. 1. Hypothetical 2018 Atlantic hurricane season (track map).

10 named storms / 4 hurricanes / 2 majors

TS Alberto
May
45 kt / 1002 mb
Landfall Yucatán: 35 kt / 1006 mb

TS Beryl
June
40 kt / 1007 mb
Landfall St. Vincent & the Grenadines: 40 kt / 1007 mb

TS Chris
June
45 kt / 1003 mb
Landfall Tamaulipas: 35 kt / 1006 mb

H Debby
July
75 kt / 979 mb

TS Ernesto
July
50 kt / 1001 mb
Landfall Virgin Islands: 50 kt / 1001 mb

TS Florence
August
60 kt / 987 mb

MH Gordon
August
130 kt / 933 mb
Landfall Nova Scotia: 90 kt / 947 mb
Landfall Newfoundland: 80 kt / 952 mb

MH Helene
September
120 kt / 942 mb

TS Isaac
September
35 kt / 1005 mb
Landfall NW Florida: 35 kt / 1007 mb

H Joyce
October
85 kt / 970 mb
Landfall Nova Scotia*: 70 kt / 958 mb

*ET impact

Big names: Gordon and Joyce (based on impacts to Canada).
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#8 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:38 pm

2018: Neutral ENSO Scenario

Image

15 named storms / 7 hurricanes / 4 majors

TS Alberto
June
50 kt / 998 mb
Landfall Isla de la Juventud, Cuba: 50 kt / 999 mb
Landfall W Cuba: 45 kt / 1000 mb
Landfall NW Florida: 45 kt / 1002 mb

TS Beryl
July
55 kt / 993 mb
Landfall Georgia/South Carolina border: 50 kt / 995 mb

H Chris
July
85 kt / 974 mb

MH Debby
July – August
130 kt / 930 mb
Landfall Martinique: 115 kt / 952 mb
Landfall S Dominican Republic: 120 kt / 937 mb
Landfall S Haiti: 100 kt / 957 mb
Landfall E tip Cuba: 80 kt / 981 mb
Landfall Sabana-Camagüey Archipelago, Cuba: 65 kt / 988 mb
Landfall Florida Keys: 75 kt / 984 mb
Landfall NW Florida: 75 kt / 982 mb

TS Ernesto
August
50 kt / 1002 mb
Landfall Barbados: 50 kt / 1003 mb
Landfall St. Lucia: 50 kt / 1004 mb

H Florence
August
80 kt / 980 mb
Landfall Yucatán: 60 kt / 990 mb
Landfall Veracruz: 70 kt / 986 mb

MH Gordon
August
155 kt / 910 mb
Landfall Great Inagua: 125 kt / 933 mb
Landfall Sabana-Camagüey Archipelago, Cuba: 135 kt / 925 mb
Landfall Louisiana: 90 kt / 948 mb

TS Helene
August
45 kt / 1000 mb

TS Isaac
August
40 kt / 1004 mb

MH Joyce
September
130 kt / 928 mb
Landfall Exuma: 120 kt / 937 mb
Landfall North Andros: 125 kt / 934 mb
Landfall Bimini: 125 kt / 932 mb
Landfall SE Florida: 130 kt / 930 mb
Landfall NW Florida (St. Vincent Island): 105 kt / 943 mb
Landfall NW Florida (Seaside): 100 kt / 949 mb

MH Kirk
September
115 kt / 948 mb
Landfall La Altagracia, Dominican Republic: 45 kt / 1001 mb
Landfall Samaná, Dominican Republic: 45 kt / 1003 mb
Landfall South Caicos: 45 kt / 1002 mb
Landfall Providenciales: 45 kt / 1001 mb
Landfall Mayaguana: 45 kt / 1000 mb
Landfall Nova Scotia*: 65 kt / 965 mb
Landfall New Brunswick*: 55 kt / 969 mb

H Leslie
September – October
90 kt / 969 mb

TS Michael
October
60 kt / 991 mb
Landfall Bermuda: 60 kt / 992 mb
Landfall Sable Island, Nova Scotia*: 70 kt / 961 mb
Landfall Newfoundland*: 70 kt / 957 mb

TS Nadine
October
40 kt / 1003 mb
Landfall Jamaica: 40 kt / 1003 mb
Landfall Jardines de la Reina, Cuba: 30 kt / 1007 mb
Landfall Camagüey Province, Cuba: 25 kt / 1008 mb

TS Oscar
November
55 kt / 994 mb
Landfall Nicaragua: 55 kt / 994 mb
Landfall Guanaja: 35 kt / 1002 mb
Landfall Ambergris Caye, Belize: 45 kt / 997 mb
Landfall Corozal, Belize: 45 kt / 996 mb

*ET impact
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