Hypothetical Season

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Hypothetical Season

#1 Postby Pressure » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:42 am

In the Off-Season (Dec~April), I really miss the season rush (ok not the hurricanes hitting people etc.). So I usually make seasons just as Potential analogs for a future season , who knows. Feel free to post as many Hypothetical Seasons as you wish! I’ll put mine below :darrow:
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#2 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:24 pm

Pressure wrote:In the Off-Season (Dec~April), I really miss the season rush (ok not the hurricanes hitting people etc.). So I usually make seasons just as Potential analogs for a future season , who knows. Feel free to post as many Hypothetical Seasons as you wish! I’ll put mine below :darrow:

I see nothing below
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#3 Postby Pressure » Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:41 pm

Hypothetical Season:
12/6/3

Alberto TS 60 999
May 22-26

Beryl TS 70 992
Jun 18-22

Chris C2 105 977
Jul 27- Aug 2

Debby C3 125 954
Aug 9-22

Ernesto TS 50 1000
Aug 15-17

Florence C2 110 974
Aug 23-30

Gordon C1 85 987
Sep 1-11

Helene C4 155 939
Sep 6-19

Isaac TS 70 990
Sep 12-17

Joyce C5 175 907
Sep 29- Oct 2


Kirk TS 65 1002
Oct 9-11[exits Basin]-14

Leslie TS 60 996
Oct 28- Nov 3




Image
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#4 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:11 pm

Here is a hypothetical 2018 season I made using the Wikipedia WPTC Track Maker:

https://imgur.com/BO5tes7


16 tropical depressions, 14 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes. Have not calculated ACE yet.

C1 Alberto June 29-July 5 75 mph, 987 mbar
TS Beryl July 14-16 50 mph, 999 mbar
TD Three July 27-28 35 mph, 1009 mbar
C3 Chris August 11-20 120 mph, 961 mbar
C4 Debby August 19-31 145 mph, 942 mbar
TS Ernesto August 25-29 65 mph, 997 mbar
C2 Florence September 1-10 110 mph, 968 mbar
TS Gordon September 5-6 45 mph, 1003 mbar
C4 Helene September 8-22 150 mph, 936 mbar
TS Isaac September 16-19 40 mph, 1006 mbar
C3 Joyce September 25-29 115 mph, 964 mbar
C1 Kirk September 30-October 4 80 mph, 982 mbar
TD Thirteen October 3-5 35 mph, 1007 mbar
C4 Leslie* October 12-19 150 mph, 929 mbar
C1 Michael October 22-26 85 mph, 979 mbar
TS Nadine November 29-December 2 60 mph, 990 mbar

*Strongest storm of the season
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#5 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:29 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Here is a hypothetical 2018 season I made using the Wikipedia WPTC Track Maker:

https://imgur.com/BO5tes7


16 tropical depressions, 14 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes. Have not calculated ACE yet.

C1 Alberto June 29-July 5 75 mph, 987 mbar
TS Beryl July 14-16 50 mph, 999 mbar
TD Three July 27-28 35 mph, 1009 mbar
C3 Chris August 11-20 120 mph, 961 mbar
C4 Debby August 19-31 145 mph, 942 mbar
TS Ernesto August 25-29 65 mph, 997 mbar
C2 Florence September 1-10 110 mph, 968 mbar
TS Gordon September 5-6 45 mph, 1003 mbar
C4 Helene September 8-22 150 mph, 936 mbar
TS Isaac September 16-19 40 mph, 1006 mbar
C3 Joyce September 25-29 115 mph, 964 mbar
C1 Kirk September 30-October 4 80 mph, 982 mbar
TD Thirteen October 3-5 35 mph, 1007 mbar
C4 Leslie* October 12-19 150 mph, 929 mbar
C1 Michael October 22-26 85 mph, 979 mbar
TS Nadine November 29-December 2 60 mph, 990 mbar

*Strongest storm of the season

This may be a little off-topic, but how do you make a season tracking chart like that? I'd be interested in making one for my 1979 Typhoon Season reanalysis.
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#6 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:12 am

1900hurricane wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Here is a hypothetical 2018 season I made using the Wikipedia WPTC Track Maker:

https://imgur.com/BO5tes7


16 tropical depressions, 14 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes. Have not calculated ACE yet.

C1 Alberto June 29-July 5 75 mph, 987 mbar
TS Beryl July 14-16 50 mph, 999 mbar
TD Three July 27-28 35 mph, 1009 mbar
C3 Chris August 11-20 120 mph, 961 mbar
C4 Debby August 19-31 145 mph, 942 mbar
TS Ernesto August 25-29 65 mph, 997 mbar
C2 Florence September 1-10 110 mph, 968 mbar
TS Gordon September 5-6 45 mph, 1003 mbar
C4 Helene September 8-22 150 mph, 936 mbar
TS Isaac September 16-19 40 mph, 1006 mbar
C3 Joyce September 25-29 115 mph, 964 mbar
C1 Kirk September 30-October 4 80 mph, 982 mbar
TD Thirteen October 3-5 35 mph, 1007 mbar
C4 Leslie* October 12-19 150 mph, 929 mbar
C1 Michael October 22-26 85 mph, 979 mbar
TS Nadine November 29-December 2 60 mph, 990 mbar

*Strongest storm of the season

This may be a little off-topic, but how do you make a season tracking chart like that? I'd be interested in making one for my 1979 Typhoon Season reanalysis.

You have to install the WPTC track maker. It is a little complex to install, instructions are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:WikiProject_Tropical_cyclones/Tracks. Basically it uses a c-compiler to take lines of HURDAT OR ATCF and produce a track with them.
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#7 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Mar 17, 2018 12:10 am

2018: El Niño Scenario

Image
Fig. 1. Hypothetical 2018 Atlantic hurricane season (track map).

10 named storms / 4 hurricanes / 2 majors

TS Alberto
May
45 kt / 1002 mb
Landfall Yucatán: 35 kt / 1006 mb

TS Beryl
June
40 kt / 1007 mb
Landfall St. Vincent & the Grenadines: 40 kt / 1007 mb

TS Chris
June
45 kt / 1003 mb
Landfall Tamaulipas: 35 kt / 1006 mb

H Debby
July
75 kt / 979 mb

TS Ernesto
July
50 kt / 1001 mb
Landfall Virgin Islands: 50 kt / 1001 mb

TS Florence
August
60 kt / 987 mb

MH Gordon
August
130 kt / 933 mb
Landfall Nova Scotia: 90 kt / 947 mb
Landfall Newfoundland: 80 kt / 952 mb

MH Helene
September
120 kt / 942 mb

TS Isaac
September
35 kt / 1005 mb
Landfall NW Florida: 35 kt / 1007 mb

H Joyce
October
85 kt / 970 mb
Landfall Nova Scotia*: 70 kt / 958 mb

*ET impact

Big names: Gordon and Joyce (based on impacts to Canada).
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Re: Hypothetical Season

#8 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:38 pm

2018: Neutral ENSO Scenario

Image

15 named storms / 7 hurricanes / 4 majors

TS Alberto
June
50 kt / 998 mb
Landfall Isla de la Juventud, Cuba: 50 kt / 999 mb
Landfall W Cuba: 45 kt / 1000 mb
Landfall NW Florida: 45 kt / 1002 mb

TS Beryl
July
55 kt / 993 mb
Landfall Georgia/South Carolina border: 50 kt / 995 mb

H Chris
July
85 kt / 974 mb

MH Debby
July – August
130 kt / 930 mb
Landfall Martinique: 115 kt / 952 mb
Landfall S Dominican Republic: 120 kt / 937 mb
Landfall S Haiti: 100 kt / 957 mb
Landfall E tip Cuba: 80 kt / 981 mb
Landfall Sabana-Camagüey Archipelago, Cuba: 65 kt / 988 mb
Landfall Florida Keys: 75 kt / 984 mb
Landfall NW Florida: 75 kt / 982 mb

TS Ernesto
August
50 kt / 1002 mb
Landfall Barbados: 50 kt / 1003 mb
Landfall St. Lucia: 50 kt / 1004 mb

H Florence
August
80 kt / 980 mb
Landfall Yucatán: 60 kt / 990 mb
Landfall Veracruz: 70 kt / 986 mb

MH Gordon
August
155 kt / 910 mb
Landfall Great Inagua: 125 kt / 933 mb
Landfall Sabana-Camagüey Archipelago, Cuba: 135 kt / 925 mb
Landfall Louisiana: 90 kt / 948 mb

TS Helene
August
45 kt / 1000 mb

TS Isaac
August
40 kt / 1004 mb

MH Joyce
September
130 kt / 928 mb
Landfall Exuma: 120 kt / 937 mb
Landfall North Andros: 125 kt / 934 mb
Landfall Bimini: 125 kt / 932 mb
Landfall SE Florida: 130 kt / 930 mb
Landfall NW Florida (St. Vincent Island): 105 kt / 943 mb
Landfall NW Florida (Seaside): 100 kt / 949 mb

MH Kirk
September
115 kt / 948 mb
Landfall La Altagracia, Dominican Republic: 45 kt / 1001 mb
Landfall Samaná, Dominican Republic: 45 kt / 1003 mb
Landfall South Caicos: 45 kt / 1002 mb
Landfall Providenciales: 45 kt / 1001 mb
Landfall Mayaguana: 45 kt / 1000 mb
Landfall Nova Scotia*: 65 kt / 965 mb
Landfall New Brunswick*: 55 kt / 969 mb

H Leslie
September – October
90 kt / 969 mb

TS Michael
October
60 kt / 991 mb
Landfall Bermuda: 60 kt / 992 mb
Landfall Sable Island, Nova Scotia*: 70 kt / 961 mb
Landfall Newfoundland*: 70 kt / 957 mb

TS Nadine
October
40 kt / 1003 mb
Landfall Jamaica: 40 kt / 1003 mb
Landfall Jardines de la Reina, Cuba: 30 kt / 1007 mb
Landfall Camagüey Province, Cuba: 25 kt / 1008 mb

TS Oscar
November
55 kt / 994 mb
Landfall Nicaragua: 55 kt / 994 mb
Landfall Guanaja: 35 kt / 1002 mb
Landfall Ambergris Caye, Belize: 45 kt / 997 mb
Landfall Corozal, Belize: 45 kt / 996 mb

*ET impact
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


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