2018 ACE: NATL - 81.4 - EPAC - 217.1 - WPAC - 217.8 - NIO - 11.5

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NotSparta
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - WPAC - 11.9 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#41 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:34 am

euro6208 wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
euro6208 wrote:It changed recently. Subtropical storms don't count for ACE not too long ago.

Wow so now the Atlantic is counting these and other basins don't? Because they have recon?...


I thought subtropical storms are counted in all basins now. It's just they're more common in the Atlantic


Subtropical storms aren't counted for the other basins for some reason. JTWC nor JMA doesn't even count these for the world's most active basin. It's weird. More common in the Atlantic? Nope...It's just ignored as they aren't tropical...Not just here but worldwide.


I'm pretty sure they would in the EPAC too (but they never really happen). Might just be an NHC thing.

I bet if extratropical storms were counted there, the WPAC on average would probably still win out :lol:
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 0.1 - WPAC - 12.1 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#42 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:04 am

Let's see how many ACE units EPAC gets as ALETTA and future BUD will rack up the numbers. Despite some activity in WPAC,no real jump is expected and this basin is underperforming as the average ACE at this June 6 date is 27.6 and is only has 12.1.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 0.3 - WPAC - 12.1 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#43 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:09 pm

Looks like Ewiniar drop in quite a dismal 0.2... :lol:
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - WPAC - 11.9 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#44 Postby Alyono » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:03 pm

NotSparta wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
I thought subtropical storms are counted in all basins now. It's just they're more common in the Atlantic


Subtropical storms aren't counted for the other basins for some reason. JTWC nor JMA doesn't even count these for the world's most active basin. It's weird. More common in the Atlantic? Nope...It's just ignored as they aren't tropical...Not just here but worldwide.


I'm pretty sure they would in the EPAC too (but they never really happen). Might just be an NHC thing.

I bet if extratropical storms were counted there, the WPAC on average would probably still win out :lol:


La Reunion also issues advisories on subtropical cyclones
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 0.1 - WPAC - 12.1 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#45 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:47 am

cycloneye wrote:Let's see how many ACE units EPAC gets as ALETTA and future BUD will rack up the numbers. Despite some activity in WPAC,no real jump is expected and this basin is underperforming as the average ACE at this June 6 date is 27.6 and is only has 12.1.



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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 24.5 - WPAC - 17.3 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:11 pm

With Carlotta in the books as a storm,the ACE total for EPAC jumps to 24.5 units that is well above average (5.9 at June 17) WPAC continues to widen the gap between the normal average and the 2018 season so far as it has 17.3 that is well below the 31.4 normal average for this date.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 24.5 - WPAC - 17.3 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#47 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:27 am

:uarrow:

Too early but maybe the 1st time the EPAC becomes #1 worldwide and beats the WPAC for the first time at the end?
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 24.5 - WPAC - 17.3 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#48 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:43 am

euro6208 wrote::uarrow:

Too early but maybe the 1st time the EPAC becomes #1 worldwide and beats the WPAC for the first time at the end?


hmm. the Atlantic looks pretty suppressed, and the EPAC has a favorable base state with incoming El Nino and strong +PMM, while the WPAC also appears to be suppressed for some reason
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 24.5 - WPAC - 17.3 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#49 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:08 am

Just to clear up confusion earlier in the thread, subtropical storms have counted toward the seasonal ACE in NHC's domain since at least 2011 when I emailed AOML for Wikipedia purposes.

Should be a lot more ACE in store for the East Pacific over the next 2 weeks.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 25.2 - WPAC - 17.3 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#50 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:17 am

WPAC gap between the average ACE and the actual count continues to widen. (Actual is 17.3 vs average for June 27 is 37.3) Let's see if that basin has activity soon to close that gap. On the other hand,EPAC is way above the average. (Actual number 25.2 vs the average for June 27 is 11.6) According to the models,that basin will be very busy in the next 2 weeks and that should help widen that gap bigtime.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 25.2 - WPAC - 17.3 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#51 Postby Alyono » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:20 am

EPAC may be above 100 by the 10th of July
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 25.2 - WPAC - 17.3 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#52 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:12 am

@philklotzbach
The recent quiet period for tropical cyclone (TC) activity has caused Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) to dip back below its long-term average to date. However, NE Pacific looks to get quite active for TC activity shortly.


 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1012004417028026369


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2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 26.8 - WPAC - 19.1 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#53 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:40 am

Alyono wrote:EPAC may be above 100 by the 10th of July


this prediction looks like it is going to be a major bust. Not getting anything behind Fabio
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 26.8 - WPAC - 19.1 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#54 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:29 pm

Alyono wrote:
Alyono wrote:EPAC may be above 100 by the 10th of July


this prediction looks like it is going to be a major bust. Not getting anything behind Fabio


However,Fabio should get a good deal of ACE with the proyected intensity forecast by SHIP. With the basin generally favorable (+PPM and +ENSO) there will be plenty of systems that will form in the next few months that will lift the ACE well above that 100.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 27.3 - WPAC - 19.9 - NIO - 11.5 - SHEM - 187.2

#55 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:07 pm

Updated the numbers for EPAC and WPAC with the 21:00 UTC data.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 30.1 - WPAC - 22.1 - NIO - 11.5

#56 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:20 am

Looks like despite a very active start to the EPAC season by their standard, the WPAC might take the lead yet again if Maria stays around longer.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 30.1 - WPAC - 22.1 - NIO - 11.5

#57 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:22 am

euro6208 wrote:Looks like despite a very active start to the EPAC season by their standard, the WPAC might take the lead yet again if Maria stays around longer.


I don't think the EPAC has ever surpassed the WPAC wrt seasonal ACE.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 31.0 - WPAC - 22.9 - NIO - 11.5

#58 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:24 am

Updated numbers for EPAC and WPAC as of 15:00 UTC as Fabio is up to cat 2 (90 kts) and Prapiroon is at (60 kts)
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 34.3 - WPAC - 23.8 - NIO - 11.5

#59 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:48 pm

The Western Pacific ACE will shoot up bigtime as MARIA intensifies and it may reach SuperTyphoon status.It will surpass EPAC as Fabio goes away and there are no new prospects for now to develop in that basin.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 2.4 - EPAC - 35.0 - WPAC - 24.1 - NIO - 11.5

#60 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:22 pm

You will always see the numbers updated at title of thread as they are available after the warnings in this case Fabio and Maria so you wont miss how things are going.
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