2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 33.8 - EPAC - 209.5 - WPAC - 172.2 - NIO - 11.5

#121 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:54 pm

Atlantic now has 3 systems active. This shall be interesting for the ACE
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 37.2 - EPAC - 211.9 - WPAC - 174.1 - NIO - 11.5

#122 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:13 pm

Atlantic should get above the normal rate here by the end of the week. East Pacific has achieved hyperactive being 4th highest ACE season, WPAC will be adding with the latest Typhoon to continue the week.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 38.4 - EPAC - 212.5 - WPAC - 174.7 - NIO - 11.5

#123 Postby storminabox » Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:42 pm

Incredibly active ACE year, worldwide, it appears.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 40.0 - EPAC - 213.1 - WPAC - 175.4 - NIO - 11.5

#124 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:02 am

Through the next 5 days Hurricane Helene will add at least 7-8 more units per the NHC forecast on top of ~3 or so units so far. Florence has pumped 17 units with an additional 19-20 units up until Landfall. Isaac's forecast yields an additional ~7 units through 5 days on the 2 units had. So in total the next 5 days would yield roughly ~30-35 units for the Atlantic with about 42 units already had. 75-80 units is where the Atlantic will be by the end of the week via the current active named systems.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 41.7 - EPAC - 213.7 - WPAC - 176.3 - NIO - 11.5

#125 Postby WAcyclone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:28 am

Image
Last edited by WAcyclone on Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 40.0 - EPAC - 213.1 - WPAC - 175.4 - NIO - 11.5

#126 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:13 am

Ntxw wrote:Through the next 5 days Hurricane Helene will add at least 7-8 more units per the NHC forecast on top of ~3 or so units so far. Florence has pumped 17 units with an additional 19-20 units up until Landfall. Isaac's forecast yields an additional ~7 units through 5 days on the 2 units had. So in total the next 5 days would yield roughly ~30-35 units for the Atlantic with about 42 units already had. 75-80 units is where the Atlantic will be by the end of the week via the current active named systems.

:uarrow: If the Atlantic has an active October and perhaps a storm in November, that would probably be enough for ACE to end up close to the average mark.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 41.7 - EPAC - 213.7 - WPAC - 176.3 - NIO - 11.5

#127 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:41 am

Was there ever a time where all of the basins in the NHem (or at least the North Pacific and Atlantic) simultaneously had above-average ACE at year's end? 2016 was close, but the WPac was short...
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 42.72 - EPAC - 215.52 - WPAC - 183.4775 - NIO - 11.5

#128 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:02 pm

The WPac is above its yearly average to date by about 34 units right now sitting at 183.4775. The EPac is further above the WPac right now by an additional 31 units or so, at 215.52.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 46.9 - EPAC - 215.0 - WPAC - 178.7 - NIO - 11.5

#129 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:31 pm

Based on the JTWC five-day forecast, Mangkhut is expected to yield an additional 32.7475 units (in just five days!) on top of the 6.8 accrued earlier, up to the 21/1800Z update. It is plausible for Mangkhut to exceed that value; it could strengthen further and rapidly while maintaining such intensity for longer. That would bring the WPAC to at least 211 units for 2018 in five days' time. Mangkhut would be the third system of the WPAC to have accumulated at least 30 units, after Maria and Jebi. I expect more of these long-trackers (I mean those last maintain >100 kts for extended periods of time or for at least three days) to form within the remaining months of the 2018 Pacific typhoon season. 2018 could even reach 400 with more of these.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 57.3 - EPAC - 216.3 - WPAC - 186.4 - NIO - 11.5

#130 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:36 pm

Atlantic is above average at 57.3. EPAC at 216.3 and WPAC 186.4. All basins in the NHEM are above average to date. NATL will continue to add the rest of the week with currently active storms. WPAC will likely catch up and pass the EPAC with Mangkhut. EPAC has modeled storms coming so the race between the two Pacific basins continues to heat up.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 57.3 - EPAC - 216.3 - WPAC - 186.4 - NIO - 11.5

#131 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:04 pm

Guaranteed to fall into the "near normal" range at this point at the very least, even if nothing else forms the rest of the year.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 64.1 - EPAC - 216.9 - WPAC - 193.3 - NIO - 11.5

#132 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:04 pm

Here's an NAtl, EPac, and WPac ACE comparison graph through September 12th. My numbers are, in the same order, 62.1, 217.5975, and 200.6525.

Image

*Edit to actually include the graph.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 73.0 - EPAC - 217.1 - WPAC - 204.6 - NIO - 11.5

#133 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:28 am

We can go through September 23rd without a tropical system over the Atlantic that we will still be at or above average ACE.

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 72.37 - EPAC - 217.72 - WPAC - 217.89 - NIO - 11.5

#134 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:00 pm

By my numbers, the WPac has caught up to and just passed the EPac again, with the former having 217.89 and the latter having 217.72 units as of the end of the September 14th UTC day. The NAtl is also almost up to 75 units (72.37). My number for the NAtl is probably a little lower than other sources because I don't count subtropical systems towards ACE totals to keep things globally consistent.

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 40.0 - EPAC - 213.1 - WPAC - 175.4 - NIO - 11.5

#135 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:14 am

Ntxw wrote:Through the next 5 days Hurricane Helene will add at least 7-8 more units per the NHC forecast on top of ~3 or so units so far. Florence has pumped 17 units with an additional 19-20 units up until Landfall. Isaac's forecast yields an additional ~7 units through 5 days on the 2 units had. So in total the next 5 days would yield roughly ~30-35 units for the Atlantic with about 42 units already had. 75-80 units is where the Atlantic will be by the end of the week via the current active named systems.


Revisiting this post 5 days later. Overall using the NHC forecast for the systems was a good call as it got the general ballpark, maybe a smidgen more. CSU has about 80.

Going forward Florence has just about gotten what it could, perhaps another half to a point left for her. Helene using the remainder of the forecast yields 3-4 more units. Joyce's forecast will muster about another extra point. Isaac's forecast is too weak to count. All in all we may look back that yet again the Atlantic provided a huge burst within a 2-3 week period during peak of the season and lesser outside of the window, almost half of which came from Florence alone.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 81.4 - EPAC - 217.1 - WPAC - 217.8 - NIO - 11.5

#136 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:20 pm

Looks like the Atlantic will rack up plenty more ACE points within the next week or so, if the latest TWO's anything to go by!
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 81.4 - EPAC - 217.1 - WPAC - 217.8 - NIO - 11.5

#137 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:15 pm

With nearly all of the models anticipating Trami to rapidly intensify into a powerful typhoon, I'm seeing a lot more ACE in the making. Within the next few days, 260 isn't too hard to reach especially if Trami would maintain a high intensity for a decent amount of time. 2018 isn't disappointing, but it's more devasting than 2017 in the West Pacific.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 81.4 - EPAC - 217.1 - WPAC - 217.8 - NIO - 11.5

#138 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:37 am

:uarrow: EPAC could be at 260 ACE points by the end of September if we get that basin crosser the Euro is showing and the majors off of Baja and Mexico.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 81.4 - EPAC - 217.1 - WPAC - 217.8 - NIO - 11.5

#139 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:05 am

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: EPAC could be at 260 ACE points by the end of September if we get that basin crosser the Euro is showing and the majors off of Baja and Mexico.

So that means.... the EPac and the WPac will heat up and race towards 260. IMO, it is still looking plausible that the latter would prevail and exceed 300. There has never (?) been an incidence of the EPac surpassing the WPac in recent memory.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 81.4 - EPAC - 217.1 - WPAC - 217.8 - NIO - 11.5

#140 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:21 am

It does appear the Pacific basins, EPAC and WPAC, will add significant ACE the next couple of weeks. The Atlantic has invests and weak systems at the moment which don't contribute much ACE unless they become long tracking hurricanes or majors. A few points here and there might be in the cards that way in the short term.
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