2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1

[cycloneye]

EPAC should get out of the July funk and August looks like a very productive month for this basin as more systems will follow Hector in the next couple of weeks. Hector will get a lot of ACE as it looks like a bonifide long-tracker that will cross to CPAC. (ACE counts for EPAC)

[Ntxw]

EPAC should get out of the July funk and August looks like a very productive month for this basin as more systems will follow Hector in the next couple of weeks. Hector will get a lot of ACE as it looks like a bonifide long-tracker that will cross to CPAC. (ACE counts for EPAC)

If Hector takes the more southern route like the ECMWF, he could possibly overtake Maria with ACE from earlier in the season (WPAC).

[cycloneye]

EPAC should get out of the July funk and August looks like a very productive month for this basin as more systems will follow Hector in the next couple of weeks. Hector will get a lot of ACE as it looks like a bonifide long-tracker that will cross to CPAC. (ACE counts for EPAC)

If Hector takes the more southern route like the ECMWF, he could possibly overtake Maria with ACE from earlier in the season (WPAC).

35.8 is the number Hector has to surpass.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Based on what we're seeing currently, I expect 2006 to be our best analog for the Northern Hemisphere. Western and Eastern Pacific above average with a powerful, long-lived hurricane/typhoon that could cross three basins. The North Atlantic may be below normal, but not by a long stretch.

[cycloneye]

EPAC should get out of the July funk and August looks like a very productive month for this basin as more systems will follow Hector in the next couple of weeks. Hector will get a lot of ACE as it looks like a bonifide long-tracker that will cross to CPAC. (ACE counts for EPAC)

If Hector takes the more southern route like the ECMWF, he could possibly overtake Maria with ACE from earlier in the season (WPAC).

It has turned into a close call because models have shifted a little bit north but there is plenty of time to see what occurs.

[cycloneye]

EPAC should get out of the July funk and August looks like a very productive month for this basin as more systems will follow Hector in the next couple of weeks. Hector will get a lot of ACE as it looks like a bonifide long-tracker that will cross to CPAC. (ACE counts for EPAC)

If Hector takes the more southern route like the ECMWF, he could possibly overtake Maria with ACE from earlier in the season (WPAC).

35.8 is the number Hector has to surpass.

As of this post Hector has 3.5 units so a looong way to go.

[1900hurricane]

By my tally, the WPac will cross 80 units at 00Z.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A parade of monsters. Heaps of ACE.

[euro6208]

Thanks to Shanshan, the WPAC leading the yearly average.

83.7 ... 79.6

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Thanks to Shanshan, the WPAC leading the yearly average.

83.7 ... 79.6

Hector is expected to rack up at least 30-40 units of ACE after crossing the IDL. That's just a fraction of the expected >65-80 total. It's now stronger than forecast and imagine it entering the more favorable West Pacific waters. This could likely track further west and south than what the models predict. Ridging seems stronger now and it could even lose some latitude like Ioke.

[1900hurricane]

EPac (92.405) is back to within two units of the WPac (93.935). I wouldn't be surprised to see a lead change for a little bit.

[cycloneye]

EPac=92.4 / WPac=92.2 per CSU so 1900hurricane, you are not far.

[Kingarabian]

weathermodels.com (Ryan Maue) is up to 94.36 for CPAC/EPAC. WPAC @ 96.295

https://lab.weathermodels.com/tropical/

[cycloneye]

They have different ways to do the best track thing.

[cycloneye]

EPac surpassed 100 units as Hector was the cause for the fast uptick.Hector is almost at 50 ACE units with 49.2 per CSU.

[cycloneye]

The battle between EPac and WPac for dominance in 2018 rages on. As of 15:00 UTC EPac has 108.8 ACE units while WPac has 108.2 units.

[Ntxw]

The battle between EPac and WPac for dominance in 2018 rages on. As of 15:00 UTC EPac has 108.8 ACE units while WPac has 108.2 units.

EPAC and WPAC are close, but in the end the WPAC will probably win out as it usually does. It is difficult for the EPAC to maintain the lead on its sister basin sharing the same Ocean. The mechanics that makes one basin active also includes the other. The modoki like structure of ENSO will keep the WPAC active. Another 160-200 EPAC season though might not be too difficult to do.

[cycloneye]

What a display of energy by both basins.Almost tied as of 03:00z.

[cycloneye]

The battle between EPac and WPac for dominance in 2018 rages on. As of 15:00 UTC EPac has 108.8 ACE units while WPac has 108.2 units.

EPAC and WPAC are close, but in the end the WPAC will probably win out as it usually does. It is difficult for the EPAC to maintain the lead on its sister basin sharing the same Ocean. The mechanics that makes one basin active also includes the other. The modoki like structure of ENSO will keep the WPAC active. Another 160-200 EPAC season though might not be too difficult to do.

Agreed that WPac will be #1 on ACE when 2018 closes but EPac will end with a great number as it should produce some more strong activity.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Both the Western and Eastern Pacific basins have been raking up a lot of ACE with Soulik, Cimaron and Lane. While the WPac is approaching last year's total ACE (now above-average YTD), the EPac is set to cross the above-normal threshold. (at least 135 ACE and two or more of the ff are attained: 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes) It's still halfway through August. With the two powerful and long-tracking hurricanes Lane and Hector accumulating (or set to) at least 40 units, this is a repeat of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season but in another ocean.