2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 81.4 - EPAC - 217.1 - WPAC - 217.8 - NIO - 11.5

#141 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:18 pm

Ntxw wrote:It does appear the Pacific basins, EPAC and WPAC, will add significant ACE the next couple of weeks. The Atlantic has invests and weak systems at the moment which don't contribute much ACE unless they become long tracking hurricanes or majors. A few points here and there might be in the cards that way in the short term.


If that system in the central Atlantic forms, becomes anything of substance and hangs around a week to 10 days, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we could get to 100 in the Atlantic. Any other hurricanes along the way, and we could actually exceed average range which only goes to 110 units. I didn’t see that for this year.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 81.9 - EPAC - 217.1 - WPAC - 220.8 - NIO - 11.5

#142 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:28 pm

82.4 on CSU and about 9 ahead of ‘81-‘10 Climatology
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 81.9 - EPAC - 217.1 - WPAC - 220.8 - NIO - 11.5

#143 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:37 pm

It's very possible that Trami pushes the September ACE in the WPac above 100 units.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 83.0 - EPAC - 217.5 - WPAC - 237.2 - NIO - 11.5

#144 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:16 pm

N hemisphere is already ahead of last year and very close to the yearly average.the hyper EPAC season is helping hugely, but the WPAC is also going strong and even the Atlantic is doing a decent job still in terms of ACE.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 85.0 - EPAC - 226.6 - WPAC - 246.8 - NIO - 11.5

#145 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:01 pm

ACE will skyrocket across all the Pacific Basins. What are the odds of 3 CAT5s simultaneously in the 3 major regions? WPAC+CPAC+EPAC. Now that would be something!

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 81.9 - EPAC - 217.1 - WPAC - 220.8 - NIO - 11.5

#146 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:09 am

1900hurricane wrote:It's very possible that Trami pushes the September ACE in the WPac above 100 units.

It and Kong-rey indeed have.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 86.4 - EPAC - 232.7 - WPAC - 253.9 - NIO - 11.5

#147 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:55 am

This season is going to continue racing up the list of busiest seasons in terms of ACE, in terms of the N.Hemisphere I'm suspecting a top 5 finish.

Despite the hyper Pacific, the Atlantic is actually doing ok and Leslie will add a chunk on to our ACE. Presuming there is at least one more system yet to come, an ACE of 100 seems possible.

As for the Pacific, both basins are undergoing yet another explosive burst of activity.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 86.4 - EPAC - 232.7 - WPAC - 253.9 - NIO - 11.5

#148 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:13 pm

With the Pacific-Centric Triad, would not be surprising if 75-100 units of ACE were collected between the three of them. El Nino sure makes things interesting.

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 86.4 - EPAC - 232.7 - WPAC - 253.9 - NIO - 11.5

#149 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:46 am

KWT wrote:This season is going to continue racing up the list of busiest seasons in terms of ACE, in terms of the N.Hemisphere I'm suspecting a top 5 finish.

Despite the hyper Pacific, the Atlantic is actually doing ok and Leslie will add a chunk on to our ACE. Presuming there is at least one more system yet to come, an ACE of 100 seems possible.

As for the Pacific, both basins are undergoing yet another explosive burst of activity.

I think we can safely presume that. With two more months of the season to go, it would be quite unusual for there not to be at least one more system (probably in the Western Caribbean).
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 87.5 - EPAC - 237.0 - WPAC - 258.8 - NIO - 11.5

#150 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:43 am

For the WPAC, I'm now expecting anywhere from 350 to 500 units of ACE for the season before the year ends. Now a quality season. Upwelling? We've had a string of four cat 5 typhoons (Jebi, Mangkhut, Trami, and Kong-rey---which coild be the strongest so far) and many more to come. Low-lying storms will be the threat later this year.

For the EPAC, 1992 and 2015 are in jeopardy. Idk about 1992's figure, but 2015 was somewhere between 205-210 units to date, while we are closing in on 250 units---and the entire 1990 season. We have 19 storms, 11 hurricanes, and 8 majors---20, 12, and 8 respectively for 2015. Higher ACE per storm this year, I expect 300 units on or before storm # 20 (Tara?), especially with growing monsters Walaka and long-lived intense (big-ACE) Sergio!
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 87.8 - EPAC - 238.7 - WPAC - 260.6 - NIO - 11.5

#151 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:00 pm

I meant to mention this earlier, but the EPac has well surpassed the NAtl's total from last year at this point. Also, the WPac is getting rather close to its yearly average.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 87.8 - EPAC - 238.7 - WPAC - 260.6 - NIO - 11.5

#152 Postby storminabox » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:51 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I meant to mention this earlier, but the EPac has well surpassed the NAtl's total from last year at this point. Also, the WPac is getting rather close to its yearly average.


The pacific has really been exceptional this year in terms of activity.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 88.0 - EPAC - 240.8 - WPAC - 260.6 - NIO - 11.5

#153 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:44 am

storminabox wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:I meant to mention this earlier, but the EPac has well surpassed the NAtl's total from last year at this point. Also, the WPac is getting rather close to its yearly average.


The pacific has really been exceptional this year in terms of activity.


2018 is just making up for last year's SNOREFESTzzz.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 88.0 - EPAC - 240.8 - WPAC - 260.6 - NIO - 11.5

#154 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:28 am

I'm not sure why but CSU's ACE page is not updating/including Sergio. EPAC is actually close to 250 now and will surpass NATL's top two seasons (2005/1933).

I suspect WPAC will end up somewhere close to 400 units by year's end.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 88.0 - EPAC - 240.8 - WPAC - 260.6 - NIO - 11.5

#155 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:54 am

What impresses me aren't the storm count or raw ACE, it's the ACE per storm. EPAC nearing record levels, while WPAC has a string (until now) of category five super typhoons---four in the past 40 days. EPac and WPac have multiple >35 ACE storms already, and I expect more to come including Sergio and Kong-rey.

In the EPAC again, we took 1990 down. 2015 and 1992, we're watching you.... :wink:
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 89.7 - EPAC - 256.0 - WPAC - 270.7 - NIO - 11.5

#156 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:23 am

First CPAC homegrown helping the EPAC and trying to catchup with the WPAC's latest 5th Cat 5 and overall ACE...
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 90.7 - EPAC - 261.3 - WPAC - 272.5 - NIO - 11.5

#157 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:14 pm

According to this page, the Atlantic ACE is already up to 90.7, at the time of writing. With Leslie expected to linger for at least another 5 days (and forecast to remain a hurricane for the next couple days), and another storm possibly (even probably) forming within the next 5 days, it's a safe bet the ACE will end up somewhere north of 100. Whither the oft predicted underperforming Atlantic season?
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 90.7 - EPAC - 261.3 - WPAC - 272.5 - NIO - 11.5

#158 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:40 am

I guess underperforming relative to the epic PAC basins, but it's unusual to see as much activity in the Atlantic as there has been in 2018 in years when the Pacific is so active.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 90.7 - EPAC - 261.3 - WPAC - 272.5 - NIO - 11.5

#159 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:53 am

All of the basins in the Northern Hemisphere have exceeded expectations. The NAtl and NPac will finish on or above normal. For the EPac-CPac area itself, I am astonished. At this rate, the average seasonal ACE of the WPac could even be surpassed, roughly ~302.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 90.7 - EPAC - 261.3 - WPAC - 272.5 - NIO - 11.5

#160 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:03 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:All of the basins in the Northern Hemisphere have exceeded expectations. The NAtl and NPac will finish on or above normal. For the EPac-CPac area itself, I am astonished. At this rate, the average seasonal ACE of the WPac could even be surpassed, roughly ~302.

This paints the picture quite well:

Image
Source: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
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