2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 91.7 - EPAC - 266.8 - WPAC - 273.4 - NIO - 11.5

#161 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:45 am

With Walaka rapidly weakening Sergio is going to have to both the leg work to get us to the record without needing another storm. It's probably going to require another 22 units roughly from this point, which isn't impossible, though would probably require it staying on the higher end of expected strength.

Equally Leslie may still do just enough to get the ATL into the 100 mark.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 91.7 - EPAC - 266.8 - WPAC - 273.4 - NIO - 11.5

#162 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:13 am

Epac is at 270 units about. Sergio on models spins as a major for at least another 5 days. That will get those 20 units.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 92.4 - EPAC - 271.4 - WPAC - 274.1 - NIO - 11.52.1

#163 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:21 pm

EPAC will take the lead in ACE points soon. Should keep that lead until the WPAC cranks out another typhoon.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 92.4 - EPAC - 271.4 - WPAC - 274.1 - NIO - 11.52.1

#164 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:EPAC will take the lead in ACE points soon. Should keep that lead until the WPAC cranks out another typhoon.


When the season is all said and done, however, I doubt EPac/CPac will have any more ACE than big daddy WPac.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 92.4 - EPAC - 271.4 - WPAC - 274.1 - NIO - 11.5

#165 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:25 pm

My WPac numbers are actually almost ten units higher than CSU's, at 282.0275 units as of 00Z. I'm not sure where the discrepancies lie, especially since I keep my WPac numbers pristine and up to date considering how much I track the basin.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 92.4 - EPAC - 271.4 - WPAC - 274.1 - NIO - 11.5

#166 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:36 am

1900hurricane wrote:My WPac numbers are actually almost ten units higher than CSU's, at 282.0275 units as of 00Z. I'm not sure where the discrepancies lie, especially since I keep my WPac numbers pristine and up to date considering how much I track the basin.


Plus no recon and storms would have been stronger. Kong-rey especially. ACE should be higher. Still leading though despite that.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 93.4 - EPAC - 275.8 - WPAC - 275.0 - NIO - 11.5

#167 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:29 pm

Ryan Maue has the WPAC ACE @ 284.762 and the EPAC @ 279.9605
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 94.6 - EPAC - 282.4 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 11.5

#168 Postby KWT » Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:39 am

Barring a rapid implusion from Sergio, the EPAC is just about nailed on to be a record breaker.

With Leslie still hanging around and 91l likely to develop the Atlantic is also a sure fire to end up above average now as well (105.9 is needed).

We could end up with all 4 N.hemisphere basins being above average, has that ever happened before?
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 95.9 - EPAC - 286.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 11.5

#169 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2018 6:19 pm

Looks like the Atlantic will surpass 100 ACE units on late Monday or on Tuesday with pesky Leslie and getting stronger MIchael.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 95.9 - EPAC - 286.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 11.5

#170 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:23 pm

Atlantic could get quite the boost in the next couple weeks with Leslie hanging around, Michael becoming potentially a strong hurricane, possible development in the MDR, and another Caribbean storm next weekend.

EPAC should surpass the record level no problem.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 95.9 - EPAC - 286.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 11.5

#171 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:15 pm

I think the EPAC this year is now tied with 2015 (286 units) if I'm not mistaken.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 94.6 - EPAC - 282.4 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 11.5

#172 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:41 am

KWT wrote:Barring a rapid implusion from Sergio, the EPAC is just about nailed on to be a record breaker.

With Leslie still hanging around and 91l likely to develop the Atlantic is also a sure fire to end up above average now as well (105.9 is needed).

We could end up with all 4 N.hemisphere basins being above average, has that ever happened before?


If my friend’s ACE record is correct, this should be the first time that all 4 basins in NHEM are above average. In fact, it’s very difficult to have both EPAC and ATL surpassing average, since TC activity in the two basins are often negatively correlated.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 96.9 - EPAC - 287.3 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 11.5

#173 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:27 am

105.9 will get us a technical above average ACE season, 112 gets us officially above average. Both are looking do able, the first is nailed on even if Michael doesn't strengthen any more, and the second is possible if either storm over performs.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 96.9 - EPAC - 287.3 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 11.5

#174 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:58 am

Atlantic will add this week and achieve climo norm with 2 or 3 systems going. East Pacific is about to move into 2nd place today passing 2015 on path to being the busiest ACE season on record with Sergio. Wpac this week is currently quiet.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 97.6 - EPAC - 287.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 11.5

#175 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:05 am

Updated the latest numbers with the 11 AM advisories of Leslie,MIchael and Sergio.With Michael poised to be a major cane,he will get a lot of ACE units and benefit the Atlantic as a whole.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 96.9 - EPAC - 287.3 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 11.5

#176 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:40 pm

Ntxw wrote:Atlantic will add this week and achieve climo norm with 2 or 3 systems going. East Pacific is about to move into 2nd place today passing 2015 on path to being the busiest ACE season on record with Sergio. Wpac this week is currently quiet.


Not just achieve it but surpass it, as of early this morning only 7 units to get to climo norm, this season may end up surpassing 120 ACE, imo.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 98.3 - EPAC - 288.5 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 12.5

#177 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:54 pm

Using the NHC 5 day forecast for each storm, Leslie would add ~5-6 more units from that storm. Michael using the same NHC forecast through 5 days as a major through landfall yields ~9-10 units. So an additional 15-20 units is likely. That 120 units for the Atlantic guess is a good bet by the end of the week.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 98.3 - EPAC - 288.5 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 12.5

#178 Postby Kazmit » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:16 pm

Ntxw wrote:Using the NHC 5 day forecast for each storm, Leslie would add ~5-6 more units from that storm. Michael using the same NHC forecast through 5 days as a major through landfall yields ~9-10 units. So an additional 15-20 units is likely. That 120 units for the Atlantic guess is a good bet by the end of the week.

Nadine is also likely to form soon down in the MDR. Although that probably won't add too much to the totals.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 99.2 - EPAC - 289.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 12.7

#179 Postby abajan » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:18 am

Atlantic ACE is now 100.1.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 100.1 - EPAC - 289.6 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 12.7

#180 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:41 am

Atlantic surpasses 100 ACE units!
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