2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 322.6 - NIO - 23.6

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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.7 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#201 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:49 am

It does look like Tara will come up just short since she may not last the day. Vicente will take it over, and probably 300 units.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.7 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#202 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:40 pm

Well,no more Tara so we will have to wait for Vicente to do it.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#203 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:04 pm

294.9 EPAC is 0.3 units from tying the record.

Wikipedia rounds the values thus equals 1992 with 295 units.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#204 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:56 pm

It appears there is not a single active system anywhere around the world. How long has it been since we have 0 ACE going?
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 294.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#205 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:32 am

CLock is ticking on these EPAC invests.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.5 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#206 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:03 am

It's happened. Operationally, semantics, the EPAC season has surpassed 1992 with Willa to be the busiest ACE year on record with 295.5 units. The EPAC will be over 300 by the end of the week.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.5 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#207 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:24 pm

Since Lane was likely overestimated during weakening, I don't think 2018 EPac has quite yet surpassed 1992, but I expect Willa to deliver the final blow to 1992's record within 24-48 hours as revealed by post-analysis.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.5 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#208 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:24 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:Since Lane was likely overestimated during weakening, I don't think 2018 EPac has quite yet surpassed 1992, but I expect Willa to deliver the final blow to 1992's record within 24-48 hours as revealed by post-analysis.

Lane's peak intensity was also likely underestimated and reached CAT5 a bit sooner than operationally listed.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.5 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#209 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:54 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
Monsoonjr99 wrote:Since Lane was likely overestimated during weakening, I don't think 2018 EPac has quite yet surpassed 1992, but I expect Willa to deliver the final blow to 1992's record within 24-48 hours as revealed by post-analysis.

Lane's peak intensity was also likely underestimated and reached CAT5 a bit sooner than operationally listed.


I've seen discrepencies before, but they never amount to more than tenths of point. 120kt or 140kt the difference is not much for an advisory or two. Hector likely was underestimated in the same sense, these things usually balance out. In a basin without recon data to argue with the changes after finalizing are usually very miminal, rarely more than a point or two.

Now if it was significantly wrong like operationally a major but was a TS over many advisories then you'd see multiple unit docks.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#210 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:37 pm

What are the prospects of the EPAC ACE ending up being higher than the WPAC ACE for 2018? Was it two years ago that there was a timeframe where it was ahead but the Wpac woke up in December and surpassed the Epac?
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 295.9 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#211 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:44 am

:uarrow: IIRC EPAC's ACE has never surpassed WPAC's because TC activity in the two basins are positively correlated. Models are now showing another intense system in the WPAC that is going to contribute significant ACE. Unless the WPAC shuts down after this system (unlikely from a climatological perspective), it will take the crown this year.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 299.0 - WPAC - 276.3 - NIO - 23.2

#212 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:14 pm

Willa going to town. 299 units and EPAC will cross 300 units tonight. A first for the western hemisphere.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 302.5 - WPAC - 276.6 - NIO - 23.2

#213 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:42 am

EPAC now in unchartered territory with 300+.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 304.6 - WPAC - 276.8 - NIO - 23.2

#214 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:55 pm

EPAC should enjoy this lead while it last. WPAC likely gonna overtake it again before year ends.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 310.0 - WPAC - 278.2 - NIO - 23.2

#215 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:25 am

310 units now for EPAC. WPAC about to get a ton more with Yutu this week and will also go over 300+.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 311.2 - WPAC - 279.0 - NIO - 23.2

#216 Postby bob rulz » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:44 pm

When was the last time that the West Pacific, East Pacific, and Atlantic all had above average ACE? Or is that relatively common? It just seems unusual to have all 3 basins be so busy.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 312.3 - WPAC - 280.2 - NIO - 23.2

#217 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:26 pm

Will YUTU beat MANGKHUT as the most ACE on WPAC in 2018? It got 44.6 units.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 311.2 - WPAC - 279.0 - NIO - 23.2

#218 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:30 pm

bob rulz wrote:When was the last time that the West Pacific, East Pacific, and Atlantic all had above average ACE? Or is that relatively common? It just seems unusual to have all 3 basins be so busy.


It is rare to see West Pacific, East Pacific, and Atlantic to have above average ACE.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 311.2 - WPAC - 279.0 - NIO - 23.2

#219 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:27 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
bob rulz wrote:When was the last time that the West Pacific, East Pacific, and Atlantic all had above average ACE? Or is that relatively common? It just seems unusual to have all 3 basins be so busy.


It is rare to see West Pacific, East Pacific, and Atlantic to have above average ACE.

All northern hemisphere basins actually. The NIO's ACE is also above average.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.4 - WPAC - 281.9 - NIO - 23.2

#220 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:59 pm

It’s not only rare. It should be a first-time event.
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