2018 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#161 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 25, 2018 6:21 pm

Maybe a longtracker soon?

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#162 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 25, 2018 7:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:Maybe a longtracker soon?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/m03u1FR.png[img]


GFS has been showing it in the past couple of runs.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#163 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 25, 2018 8:47 pm

Kingarabian,you made that post on May 22 about this and look now how GFS is responding.Let's see if ECMWF also turns bullish.

@ToddKimberlain
MJO moving out of the eastern hemisphere to the Dateline by the end of May. No signs of it spawning a west pac typhoon, but an epac TC likely 1st week of June. Will the Atlantic have an opportunity after that (~June 7-12) ? #tropics #HurricaneSeason #HurricaneSeason2018




https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1000190154508824579
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#164 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 25, 2018 8:58 pm

EPAC longtrackers are nice to watch, since most of them are fish :D
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#165 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 26, 2018 9:54 am

cycloneye wrote: Kingarabian,you made that post on May 22 about this and look now how GFS is responding.Let's see if ECMWF also turns bullish.

@ToddKimberlain
MJO moving out of the eastern hemisphere to the Dateline by the end of May. No signs of it spawning a west pac typhoon, but an epac TC likely 1st week of June. Will the Atlantic have an opportunity after that (~June 7-12) ? #tropics #HurricaneSeason #HurricaneSeason2018


[tweet]https://twitt.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1000190154508824579[/tweet]


I think both will eventually show more chances for development once they get a better handle on the MJO progression.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#166 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 26, 2018 7:07 pm

GFS has shown different scenarios of the long range cyclone for 5 of the last 6 runs.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#167 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat May 26, 2018 10:13 pm

cycloneye wrote: Kingarabian,you made that post on May 22 about this and look now how GFS is responding.Let's see if ECMWF also turns bullish.

@ToddKimberlain
MJO moving out of the eastern hemisphere to the Dateline by the end of May. No signs of it spawning a west pac typhoon, but an epac TC likely 1st week of June. Will the Atlantic have an opportunity after that (~June 7-12) ? #tropics #HurricaneSeason #HurricaneSeason2018




https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1000190154508824579


This is the classic early season inactive EPAC setup we're in right now. This will change when the MJO returns, which shouldn't be to early or mid June. GFS tends to move the MJO too fast so I wouldn't be surprised if the anticipated return of the MJO gets pushed back.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#168 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 28, 2018 2:06 pm

12z ECMWF begins to latch on something but let's wait for more runs and to see if other models heat up.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#169 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 28, 2018 3:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z ECMWF begins to latch on something but let's wait for more runs and to see if other models heat up.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CjJS5zz.png[img]


Pretty strong EPS support for the second TC of the season in 7-10 days. The GFS is not going to show development in the near future while it corrects its MJO forecast.

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PC: Ryan Maue - Http://www.Weathermodels.com
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#170 Postby NDG » Mon May 28, 2018 3:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z ECMWF begins to latch on something but let's wait for more runs and to see if other models heat up.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CjJS5zz.png[img]


Pretty strong EPS support for the second TC of the season in 7-10 days. The GFS is not going to show development in the near future while it corrects its MJO forecast.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/W5lDTl5.png

PC: Ryan Maue - Http://www.Weathermodels.com


Even the latest ECMWF barely brings the MJO to phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, that's still not a very good phase for far eastern EPAC, IMO.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#171 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 28, 2018 4:01 pm

July is usually start of longtrackers for the EPAC as waves cross over from the Atlantic (subtropical high prevents development over there). Superimposed with climo the next major CCKW/MJO should light up this basin imo. Models may be a bit fast, I'd wait for late June for some ACE rakers to start on the western side into the CPAC
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#172 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 28, 2018 4:25 pm

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z ECMWF begins to latch on something but let's wait for more runs and to see if other models heat up.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CjJS5zz.png[img]


Pretty strong EPS support for the second TC of the season in 7-10 days. The GFS is not going to show development in the near future while it corrects its MJO forecast.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/W5lDTl5.png

PC: Ryan Maue - Http://www.Weathermodels.com


Even the latest ECMWF barely brings the MJO to phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, that's still not a very good phase for far eastern EPAC, IMO.


The trend in the last couple of runs on the Euro is for the MJO to end up in the WPAC eventually:

Image

Image

The TC being modeled out is due to conditions gradually becoming favorable with the departure of the sinking motion that has been over the EPAC for the most of May.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#173 Postby NDG » Mon May 28, 2018 4:34 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Pretty strong EPS support for the second TC of the season in 7-10 days. The GFS is not going to show development in the near future while it corrects its MJO forecast.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/W5lDTl5.png

PC: Ryan Maue - Http://www.Weathermodels.com


Even the latest ECMWF barely brings the MJO to phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, that's still not a very good phase for far eastern EPAC, IMO.


The trend in the last couple of runs on the Euro is for the MJO to end up in the WPAC eventually:

Image

Image

The TC being modeled out is due to conditions gradually becoming favorable with the departure of the sinking motion that has been over the EPAC for the most of May.


But my question is if the mJO is barely in phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, far western west pacific, would it not be the best conditions in the far eastern EPAC?
Perhaps the Euro is jumping on development way too quickly and may not be until at least mid June, IMO.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#174 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 28, 2018 4:44 pm

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
Even the latest ECMWF barely brings the MJO to phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, that's still not a very good phase for far eastern EPAC, IMO.


The trend in the last couple of runs on the Euro is for the MJO to end up in the WPAC eventually:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/BxMOPdu.gif[img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/yZwVyHK.png[img]

The TC being modeled out is due to conditions gradually becoming favorable with the departure of the sinking motion that has been over the EPAC for the most of May.


But my question is if the mJO is barely in phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, far western west pacific, would it not be the best conditions in the far eastern EPAC?
Perhaps the Euro is jumping on development way too quickly and may not be until at least mid June, IMO.


I certainly see what you're saying. Perhaps the Euro is hinting at TC genesis due to improved local conditions.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#175 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 29, 2018 5:12 am

As was said here,it may be by mid June that the action begins to jell as both GFS and ECMWF have gone back in time especially the Euro that had more developed system at 12z than at 00z.

Edit: 06Z GFS heats up.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#176 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 29, 2018 12:28 pm

12z GFS continues to show development this time tracking to CentralAmerica.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#177 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue May 29, 2018 1:12 pm

A look at the 51 member EPS is bringing the timeframe down on this slowly. There's likely a decent shot at an EPAC tropical cyclone next week actually, despite the not so favorable MJO.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#178 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 29, 2018 2:01 pm

12z ECMWF continues to hint on development in 10 days.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#179 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 30, 2018 5:21 am

Looks like more model consensus now for development late next week from GFS,FV3,ECMWF,ICON,CMC.The only one with a bonifide long tracker is FV3.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#180 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 30, 2018 1:56 pm

At 12z model package,the consensus continued with the main model GFS and ECMWF. At this run,Euro is much more bullish.

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