2018 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#341 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:13 pm

What do the folks think now that Carlotta is gone,how much time there will be a pause before Daniel forms?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#342 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:What do the folks think now that Carlotta is gone,how much time there will be a pause before Daniel forms?

I think we will probably get Daniel sometime towards the end of June or maybe early July. I don't think the EPAC will be in a lull for very long, it's not like the Atlantic which struggles to produce storms before August.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#343 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:What do the folks think now that Carlotta is gone,how much time there will be a pause before Daniel forms?


8-12 days.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#344 Postby Chris90 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:What do the folks think now that Carlotta is gone,how much time there will be a pause before Daniel forms?


I'll say a little over a week, I'll go ahead and guess Daniel gets named June 27th.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#345 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:23 pm

FV3 has a pair of longtrackers on long range.

Image
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#346 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:21 am

GFS has also two (Weak one) but the other is a very strong cane but not a longtracker as it moves paralell to Mexican coast. Starts on day 10.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#347 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:14 am

:uarrow:

Timeframe closer now.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#348 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:09 pm

ICON model timeframe is even more closer.It begins development in 144 hours but this model only goes to 180 hours.

Image

Kingarabian 12z GFS is again starting development on day 10.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#349 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:04 pm

12z Euro has a weak feature starting at 120 hours and the begginings of something at day 10 south of CA.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#350 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:13 pm

:uarrow: Latest model runs show there's strong potential for 2 TC's to develop before the end of June.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#351 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:27 pm

Yes Kingarabian ,by late June timeframe the only basin in the planet to have development.

From the CPC Global Hazards Assesment update:

The active phase of a convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave is over the Date Line now and expected to propagate eastward during Week-1. Its convective signal should dissipate once it reaches the Americas, but most model guidance indicates that the circulation component of the Kelvin wave will race over the Americas and Atlantic and re-couple to convection over the Indian Ocean during Week-2. This wave may act as a potential trigger for tropical cyclogenesis in the East Pacific during the last few days of the Week-2 period. The GFS has consistently created a tropical cyclone in the East Pacific during the last few days. An area with moderate confidence of TC formation and above-average rainfall has been forecast for Week-2 to reflect this potential due both to the dynamical guidance and the passage of the aforementioned Kelvin wave.


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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#352 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yes Kingarabian ,by late June timeframe the only basin in the planet to have development.

From the CPC Global Hazards Assesment update:

The active phase of a convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave is over the Date Line now and expected to propagate eastward during Week-1. Its convective signal should dissipate once it reaches the Americas, but most model guidance indicates that the circulation component of the Kelvin wave will race over the Americas and Atlantic and re-couple to convection over the Indian Ocean during Week-2. This wave may act as a potential trigger for tropical cyclogenesis in the East Pacific during the last few days of the Week-2 period. The GFS has consistently created a tropical cyclone in the East Pacific during the last few days. An area with moderate confidence of TC formation and above-average rainfall has been forecast for Week-2 to reflect this potential due both to the dynamical guidance and the passage of the aforementioned Kelvin wave.


[img]https://i.imgur.com/h82g4su.png[img]


CFS/GFS/JMA and I'm assuming the Euro as well, don't have a very robust CCKW signal for the next 2 weeks, yet the models are sniffing out a lot of development in the same period. Just shows that background state has shifted into El Nino and the EPAC now needs very little to spawn TC's.

Lots of EPS support for the first system in 7 days:
Image

EPS has the 1st system as the seasons first long tracking storm, with the second system behind it:
Image

PC - Ryan Maue - http://www.Weathermodels.com
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#353 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:40 pm

Here we go.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized thunderstorms several hundred miles south of
Guatemala. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for slow development of this disturbance while it moves
westward to west-northwestward during the next several days,
remaining well offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#354 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:12 pm

:uarrow: Justified given the sufficient EPS members are showing some sort of tropical cyclone in 4-5 days that moves west around 110-120W.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#355 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:50 pm

But Kingarabian ,the real deal will be after 10 days.

FV3

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#356 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:00 am

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms is associated with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles south of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are
expected to gradually become more conducive for the development
of a broad low pressure system south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by Friday. Additional development will be possible over the weekend
and into early next week while the disturbance moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward well offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#357 Postby Twisted-core » Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:27 am

00Z ukmet also likes a storm @144hrs.
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https://imgur.com/Bz94wWq
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#358 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:21 am

Euro is on board.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#359 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:45 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 20 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south-southwest of Guatemala are associated with a tropical
wave. An area of low pressure is expected to develop from this
system over the weekend, or early next week a few of hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Additional development
is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves slowly westward
to west-northwestward well offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#360 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:40 am

Kingarabian wrote:As evidenced by the models trying to push for more EPAC TC development in June (despite unfavorable CCKW/MJO), the +PMM and the continued warming of the ENSO regions will likely now become big players in EPAC development and not just be reliant on favorable VP anomalies.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1007215589012602880




Yes,the +PMM is the driving force right now to have a very active season so far (3/2/2 with 24.5 ACE units) and looks like it will continue by the last days of the month.
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