2018 EPAC Season

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#601 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 30, 2018 1:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:It even looks like the normally well performed East Pacific is underperforming. Could it be the fact that the Tropics globally are much cooler than average?

https://i.imgur.com/VY3NeA9.png


5/2/2 is by any means underperforming and also the ACE is way ahead of the average (26.7) vs the average for June 30. (13.5)


Yeah the basin overall is not under-performing. Way over-performing compared to average. What has been lackluster is that Emilia-97E so far has not lived up to the expectations. Kind of in a similar situation last year with Greg-Irwin-Hilary. A lot of high expectations but took their time to consolidate and not take maximum advantage of the warmest waters to the east before moving too far west where conditions in late June are not great like in the East.


The waters aren't warm enough for sustained long term hurricane development quite yet, especially since most of these systems aren't tracking more NW and paralleling the coast, which has warm water until the California Current.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#602 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 30, 2018 3:36 pm

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#603 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 30, 2018 3:42 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
5/2/2 is by any means underperforming and also the ACE is way ahead of the average (26.7) vs the average for June 30. (13.5)


Yeah the basin overall is not under-performing. Way over-performing compared to average. What has been lackluster is that Emilia-97E so far has not lived up to the expectations. Kind of in a similar situation last year with Greg-Irwin-Hilary. A lot of high expectations but took their time to consolidate and not take maximum advantage of the warmest waters to the east before moving too far west where conditions in late June are not great like in the East.


The waters aren't warm enough for sustained long term hurricane development quite yet, especially since most of these systems aren't tracking more NW and paralleling the coast, which has warm water until the California Current.


Yup, 100% on the money. Systems are moving NW vs WNW.

12z GFS and Euro have a modest Hurricane Fabio because they take it NW, compared to the 12z UKMET which insists on a stronger ridge and moves future Fabio WNW while making it a major hurricane.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#604 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:01 pm

:uarrow: UKMET tends to overdue the strength of ridges. It had Rick 09 had paralleling the coast of Mexico and never re-curving, for instance.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#605 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:11 pm

What happened that the models after they had a strong hurricane Gilma behind Fabio have changed and dont have anything? Yes,they have weak things but on long range.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#606 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:What happened that the models after they had a strong hurricane Gilma behind Fabio have changed and dont have anything? Yes,they have weak things but on long range.


Yeah the bigger story is that the models backed off Gilma. Even the UKMET dropped it in its past 2 runs. We'll see what happens. Any monsoon trough disturbance bears watching in the EPAC.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#607 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:27 pm

Still pretty solid EPS support for Glima by days 8-10, with some making it a hurricane. I'd still give the operational models a couple of more days to sort thing out and bring it back.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#608 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:51 am

Season now with FABIO is at 6/2/2.It continues to overperform as the ACE average as of July 1 is 14.2 and the actual number is 26.8.Let's see how much ACE it gets but Is very likely we will have the third major cane of the season and that should help Fabio get good ACE units.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#609 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:15 am

@EricBlake12
The eastern Pacific continues at a record pace as Fabio has formed overnight- it is the earliest 6th tropical storm on record for the basin by 2 days over 1985!


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1013378169632710659


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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#610 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:01 am

Could this be why storms are not getting as intense as early model guidance predicted? Still impressive without the support of the MJO.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1013413901071986688


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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#611 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:37 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Could this be why storms are not getting as intense as early model guidance predicted? Still impressive without the support of the MJO.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1013413901071986688[weet]


It's the reason why Ventrice hasn't been that much interested in this recent uptick in EPAC activity.

The EPAC cranking out systems despite the lack of a CCKW shows that the overall background state really favors the EPAC basin this year.

The MJO active phase he's talking about will kick off the July wave train, which has become an annual thing since the PDO flipped warm.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#612 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:22 pm

12z GFS develops Gilma on long range.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#613 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:49 am

Eric Webb, would a warming climate (expanded Hadley cells), increased +NAO incidences, and more frequent AWB (anticyclonic wave-breaking) offset the +PMM by contributing to increased TUTT activity in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, thus inducing northerly shear over the eastern tropical Pacific? In other words, would there be corresponding negative effects (vertical wind shear) in the Pacific as well as the Atlantic and Caribbean? This may not be the appropriate thread for this topic; however, I noticed that the TUTT over the Caribbean has been imparting northeasterly shear over Fabio, thus delaying its intensification.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#614 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:52 am

:uarrow:

Also, (probably wrong place to post this) would it affect the EPO and WPO? Are they much different from the NAO?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#615 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:55 am

Season now with Fabio as Hurricane is at 6/3/2.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#616 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:20 pm

Phil Klotzbach mentioned analog years for the Atlantic in his July forecast.Among those he has 1994 and I like that year as analog for EPAC big activity because is more western EPAC going to CPAC based because of the possible El Niño modoki.That year had the same name's list as 2018.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#617 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:46 am

After Fabio is gone,looks like a lull of 2 weeks or more will occur if the models are right.Let's wait and see when will we see activity pick up again.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#618 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:After Fabio is gone,looks like a lull of 2 weeks or more will occur if the models are right.Let's wait and see when will we see activity pick up again.


Not sure if we'll go the full 2 weeks with no activity since models are on and off about a potential system near 130.

If we do go 2 weeks without activity, it'll allow the SSTs to get quite toasty in anticipation of an El Nino supporting Walker cell setting up in the CPAC and EPAC for the rest of the season.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#619 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:42 pm

By next week, the CPAC and EPAC will be very conducive for development. Could see another splurge of activity to close the month.

Here's the latest Euro VP200 anomaly hovmoller:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1014486383040323585


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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#620 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:28 am

So I updated my own EPAC record/stat page tonight and it got my mind thinking into something quasi-related. Ranking the best seasons I've tracked in this basin since I've been following hurricanes fairly closely since ~2004.

1.2015- self-explanatory
2.2014- impressive start with 2 130+ systems before mid-June, stretch from Iselle to Odile was really incredible, with Marie being a classic EPAC Cat 5, Odile and Iselle making unusual landfalls for intensity and location respectively
3.2016- love how after a slow May and June, it rebounded; fantastic July with 3 majors that month plus there were 2 Cat 4's at once on 8/21; there also was Seymour in late October
4.2009- legendary August (8 storms with 3 majors that month) plus Rick was my favorite EPAC storm till Patricia
5.2006- had its ups and downs but fair collection of strong hurricanes, with 3 in August, including Ioke
6.2017- significant drop after those 5, but July and mid-September outbreak push this ahead even if there was only one great season and several underachieved
7.2012- nice early July and September activity, with a few noteworthy majors (Daniel and Paul), despite a massive lull in August
8.2008- impressive July activity (although without any majors), with a resurgence in October led by Norbert
9.2011- ultimate feast or famine season with some great majors and Kenneth was incredible but September was pitiful to watch
10.2004- I mean I guess there was Javier but even that underwhelmed to some extent; these next group of seasons were quite terrible, with multiple systems not panning out; is higher than the rest largely due to the fact there were 3 majors
11.2005- only thing memorable was really a mid-September outbreak
12.2010- Celia and to a lesser extent Omeka keeps this out of last place; might be the most bizarre season in memory
13.2013- Raymond and Manuel keep this out of the basement in what was otherwise featured an underwhelming spam of weak systems
14.2007- just not impressive in any way outside of maybe Flossie and even that turned into a disappointment in the end (well, not for Hawaii) and basically everything else underachieved with one storm becoming a longtime meme

2018 so far might be better than 2013 and 2007 alone. Will likely end up #3 or #4 on this list, maybe #2 if this really goes bonkers later this month (in which there are no blatant signs of on the EPS). 2015 is likely safe on my (and likely most others) list.
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