2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Now with Daniel, season is at 4/2/2.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS down to 915 mbs.

[BYG Jacob]

4 named storms before June, impressive. At least the EPAC is giving us something to track while the Atlantic is dead.

[cycloneye]

The one behind of the big one is added.

A tropical wave located just west of Costa Rica and Nicaragua is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of the week while the system
moves westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another tropical wave is expected to move into the eastern Pacific
early this week. Some subsequent development of this system is
possible as it moves generally westward to the south of Central
America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low..20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Are you ready to track? What we are going to follow in next two weeks or more could be an epic very busy period of tracking in open waters a couple of very strong hurricanes.This graphic is only the beggining.

[Chris90]

I would love to see a cat 5 fish out of Fabio. I posted in this thread back in March that I had a feeling Fabio would be a big one this year, and I'd love to see that validated.
Model runs for the next couple weeks remain interesting.
Considering we're already to the average ACE of July 17th, it'll be interesting to see where we are when we get to July 17th.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if we can get images like these from the Emilia / Fabio combo. This was Hurricane Marie in 2014 that had similar track thru open waters.

[cycloneye]

4 named storms before June, impressive. At least the EPAC is giving us something to track while the Atlantic is dead.

Agreed 100%. And more is comming down the pipe.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro.

[Chris90]

Those images from Hurricane Marie are some of my favorite. She was a real beauty on satellite during her peak. Probably in my top 5 for "satellite beauties." Wouldn't surprise me if she briefly peaked higher than the analyzed 140kts either.
Fingers crossed we get some more beautiful satellite shots in the next couple weeks.

[cycloneye]

I am posting only Maue's Twitter text message because image is from paid site.

@RyanMaue
Tropical Storm Daniel is weak ... well off coast of Mexico heading toward colder waters.
However, 2 or more stronger storms could follow further east over the next week. #TropicalUpdate

[cycloneye]

18z GFS lowest pressure is 908 mbs.Here is loop of the lowest pressure period.And look at that little thing behind.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS run is the first run this year that shows a true long tracker. Has a TS nearing Hawaii in 16 days.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS run is the first run this year that shows a true long tracker. Has a TS nearing Hawaii in 16 days.

And behind is the other one.

[cycloneye]

0%-60% / 0%/40%

A tropical wave located to the south of Guatemala and southeastern
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form later this week week while the
system moves westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Another tropical wave is expected to move over the eastern Pacific
early this week. Some subsequent development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form south of Central
America or the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of the week as it
moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium..40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Folks on Twitter are starting to chim in about what will occur.

@EricBlake12
Very busy eastern Pacific season continues- more on the way this week too! Seeing signs that this EPac season could be record breaking with warming Pacific waters and cool Atlantic conditions.

[storminabox]

It is incredible just how active the Eastern Pacific can get. I am very excited for the next few weeks.

[cycloneye]

Satellite-derived winds and surface observations indicate that a
broad low pressure system has developed about 400 miles south of
Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to steadily become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week week while the
system moves westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move out of the Caribbean Sea and
into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday or Wednesday. Some subsequent
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form south of Central America or the Gulf of Tehuantepec by
the end the week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium..50 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Both the 00z GFS and Euro show 94E merging with future 96E and likely becoming a minimal hurricane Emilia, and Fabio becoming a high end major hurricane. Followed by Gilma.

[cycloneye]

I would love to see a cat 5 fish out of Fabio. I posted in this thread back in March that I had a feeling Fabio would be a big one this year, and I'd love to see that validated.
Model runs for the next couple weeks remain interesting.
Considering we're already to the average ACE of July 17th, it'll be interesting to see where we are when we get to July 17th.

By looking at how things are evolving in the models I think you will get your wish.