2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

A low pressure area is expected to form this weekend about 1000
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Gradual development of this system is possible early
next week while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another area of low pressure is likely to form early next week
several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear conducive for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
southwest of Mexico is associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave. A low pressure area is expected to form this weekend from
this wave and gradual development is possible early next week while
it continues westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another area of low pressure is likely to form early next week
several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear conducive for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF develops both of these. Hopefully it comes true.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered
several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated
with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
increasingly favorable for development over the weekend, and a
tropical depression could form early next week while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear conducive for some development of this system thereafter
while it moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Probably see some more areas added in the next couple of days.

12z Euro shows a flip compared to its previous runs and shows rising ai rlingering over the EPAC/CPAC for the next 10 days.

18z GFS has a new system 15 days out.

[cycloneye]

@webberweather
Certainly not every day you see 4 separate areas of disturbed weather in the east-central Pacific at once. This isn't too surprising given the conducive seasonal bgd state, climo, & passage of a 2.5 sigma CCKW overhead. This CCKW will pass over the Atlantic & Africa in 1-2 weeks

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1020076650640420864

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
likely, and a tropical depression could form early next week while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions then appear to be conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward well south
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS would bring back a lot of ACE for the EPAC:

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form early next week. This disturbance is expected
to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this
system while it moves westward or west-northwestward well south
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Little hint: the 10/60 system is likely a false alarm given the ECMWF has dropped it last two runs.

[Kingarabian]

Man good luck to the NHC trying to figure out what's what right now.

12z Euro:

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form early next week. This disturbance is expected
to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this
system while it moves westward or west-northwestward well south
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Little hint: the 10/60 system is likely a false alarm given the ECMWF has dropped it last two runs.

Was looking at the wrong run take back what I said. Time to add a 0/20 most likely in addition to keeping the 10/60. Next week has the potential to be fun and get the EPAC back in the game.

[cycloneye]

The 0/40 has been more bearish on GFS.

Another area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although this system is not
showing any signs of organization at this time, conditions are
forecast to become favorable for development and a tropical
depression could form early next week. This disturbance is expected
to move toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

And yet another area of low pressure is likely to form early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual
development of this system while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS totally drops the 0/40 but blows up the 10/60.

[Yellow Evan]

Another area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south of the southwest coast of Mexico. Although this system is not
showing any signs of organization at this time, conditions are
forecast to become favorable for development and a tropical
depression could form early next week. This disturbance is expected
to move toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

And yet another area of low pressure is likely to form early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual
development of this system while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has once again the 0/40 one but it begins to develop 6 days from now.

[cycloneye]

The big picture.

[cycloneye]

This is a big moment for the NHC specialists to decide which disturbance will develop or not because the models are all over the place right now from showing something in one run to not having anything in next run.

[Yellow Evan]

There's strong agreement that the 0/40 will develop. The 10/60 not so much; GFS and ECMWF have mostly dropped it and their latest run

[CyclonicFury]

12z GFS doesn't have much development with any disturbance.

[cycloneye]

Another area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south of the southwest coast of Mexico. Although there are no signs
of organization at this time, conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development and a tropical depression could form early
next week. This disturbance is expected to move toward the
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

And yet another area of low pressure is likely to form early next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual
development of this system while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.