2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Can you imagine EPAC being as active as WPAC is now?

[Yellow Evan]

This gets more and more surreal. GFS doesn't have either the 10/60 or the 0/40 anymore.

[Hurricaneman]

Might have to wait until mid August for the next big formation

[cycloneye]

Down to 10/50 now and the other stays at 0/40.

A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Although there are
still no signs of organization, environmental conditions are
expected to become somewhat conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week.
This disturbance is expected to move toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days
several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual
development of this system while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

00z GFS and UKMET don't develop any of the current systems.

[Yellow Evan]

18z FV3 did develop both. But at this point I'd just point and laugh at these badly preforming models and try to not really mind that the EPAC isn't very active right now.

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Although this system
remains disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to
become somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle part of next week. This disturbance is
expected to move toward the west or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form in a few days several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development while the
system moves toward the west or west-northwest well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

If GFS is to be believed,then the first days of August will have bonifide Hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south and southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Although this system remains disorganized, environmental
conditions are expected to become somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle part
of this week. This disturbance is expected to move toward the west
or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A weak area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little development of
the system is expected during the next couple of days. After that
time, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development while the system moves toward the west or
west-northwest well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

There is that weak low pressure area of 0/40 south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec around 7N-92W.

[NDG]

Shear still high for EPAC standards, needs to improve for any significant development over the next couple of weeks, IMO.
Notice that the CPAC is not any better unlike some more were forecasting it to be this month.

[Yellow Evan]

The high shear aloft has been forecast to decrease by the GFS as an upper trough was suppose to start recedding but like everything else it keeps getting pushed back. Also it just occurred to me today that the PDO is now slightly negative and has been much lower than any year since 2013. Why did I not notice this until today? I would not have predicted anything more than 15 or 16 systems then.

[NotSparta]

The high shear aloft has been forecast to decrease by the GFS as an upper trough was suppose to start recedding but like everything else it keeps getting pushed back. Also it just occurred to me today that the PDO is now slightly negative and has been much lower than any year since 2013. Why did I not notice this until today? I would not have predicted anything more than 15 or 16 systems then.

The monster +PMM could have caused a hyperactive season had it stayed around and caused favorable conditions

[Yellow Evan]

The high shear aloft has been forecast to decrease by the GFS as an upper trough was suppose to start recedding but like everything else it keeps getting pushed back. Also it just occurred to me today that the PDO is now slightly negative and has been much lower than any year since 2013. Why did I not notice this until today? I would not have predicted anything more than 15 or 16 systems then.

The monster +PMM could have caused a hyperactive season had it stayed around and caused favorable conditions

Despite my youth, I've been following this basin for nearly 15 years now. I'm sometimes stuck in my ways; I was not necessarily sold that a metric I just heard of sixth months ago and never really looked into much in the pre-season, alone would have caused hyperactive conditions, and so far I seem correct. I'm well aware of the fact that many have speculated that the +PMM has collapsed, from eyeballing it, but I'd prefer to see any actual data before using it as a scapegoat. Nevertheless will say the SST configuration looks less favorable to my eyes (and the SST chart I keep track of seems to back this up) now than this spring) but judging on SST's alone, conditions still look somewhat conducive. The main problem I see is the shear, likely caused by the cold SHEM PDO and cool Nino 1+2.

[Yellow Evan]

Trying to find similarities with the cold SHEM tropical SST's....



Inactive group



Active group



2014 to 2016

So after a while I'm trying to find a year with similar SST' configuration. 1977 1979 and 1991 - matches that I thought would be somewhat similar - turned out to have generally favorable SST configurations aside from the fact there were Modokis.



Cold water near French Polynesia was a theme of the late 1980's and 2018, matching up well with comparison I've made in the past. That'd alone suggest some sort of a bounce back though is possible. Such cold water was not present from 1982-85 and 2014-16 but became present thereafter. However, this alone doesn't explain the inactivity this month.

[cycloneye]

% go down for both.

A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south and southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Although this system remains disorganized, environmental
conditions are expected to become somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle part
of this week. This disturbance is expected to move toward the west
or west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A weak area of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little development of
the system is expected during the next couple of days. After that
time, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development while the system moves toward the west or
west-northwest well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

The only ones 12z ECM develops are the 0/30 and another behind after day 7 which is the strongest and on that coincides with GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

CFS is showing lower shear for August 5-12 period as time goes by. And given that it's not merely pushing the timeframe back (see below) this seems credible.

[cycloneye]

Nothing promising for now.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 22 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is
moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system
remains disorganized, and environmental conditions are expected to
be only marginally conducive for a tropical depression form by
Tuesday or Wednesday. After that time, upper-level winds are
forecast to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A weak low pressure system is located several hundred miles south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little development of the system is
expected during the next day or two. After that time, environmental
conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for
gradual development while the system moves toward the west or
west-northwest, remaining well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[hurricanes1234]

Here comes the famous tagline we've known only too well ... "it's heading towards unfavourable upper-level winds and development is becoming less likely."

I honestly believe we won't end up with even a single depression forming this month in this basin.