2018 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

What about 2018 season having 4 major canes before July 15? Actual numbers are 3/2/2.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/VNvt2ou.gif[img]

With Daniel, Emilia, and Fabio being modeled out before July 1, I'm having a very hard time finding a season that had 7 TC's before July.

6 systems in June would break the record of 5 set in 1985. One of the fairly few records 2014-16 didn't come close to touching.

[cycloneye]

The big picture question is if the 2018 season ties or breaks the record of 10 Major Canes that was made in the years 1992 and 2015.

[Chris90]

1992 had activity in the CPac very early on, and 2015 didn't have CPac activity until the first half of July, but CPac activity started before we got very far down the EPac list of names. Considering there's been a good amount of talk of a west based nino combined with the kind of activity we've already seen in the EPac coupled with what the models are showing, I think there's a chance we could tie 10 majors. I won't go so far as to say there's a good chance of the record being broken, but with current conditions combined with a strengthening nino, it seems like the season could continuing escalating to a point where it could be comparable to '92 and '15.

[Yellow Evan]

Oh if you wanna count CPAC, 2015 has 11 majors, not 10.

[cycloneye]

0%/30%

A tropical wave emerging off the western coast of Central America
into the eastern Pacific is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system by the middle of next week while it moves
westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has 94E either combining with future 96E/97E then becoming hurricane Emilia, but the NHC may keep it as 94E since this GFS shows the main area of vorticity remaining intact and just pulling moisture to it from the monsoon trough.

18z GFS shows Fabio becoming a borderline cat. 5, and then following Fabio is Gilma and Hector. So looks like we can actually see 8 total TCs by the first week of July.

[Kingarabian]

Looking ahead, here's a glimpse of what looks to be the annual July wave train that could begin during the second week of July:

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has 94E either combining with future 96E/97E then becoming hurricane Emilia, but the NHC may keep it as 94E since this GFS shows the main area of vorticity remaining intact and just pulling moisture to it from the monsoon trough.

18z GFS shows Fabio becoming a borderline cat. 5, and then following Fabio is Gilma and Hector. So looks like we can actually see 8 total TCs by the first week of July.

Is becoming clear that 94E will be dropped very soon and then 96E will be up for the modeled strong one 0%/30% and 97E for the one behind on the long range one. I won't go further because is even longer range.

[cycloneye]

FV3 is loaded with a few developments that go to Hector.

[Yellow Evan]

18z FV3

[Twisted-core]

Looking ahead, here's a glimpse of what looks to be the annual July wave train that could begin during the second week of July:

EC has nice looking easterly wave V pattern signature in that area in the first week Jul on the model.
ATLmdr So yeah nice early pickup by you maybe King.


https://imgur.com/jh6HSPV

[cycloneye]

On the 00z GFS run,is all about the two strong twins.Loop goes from hour 144 thru 240.

[cycloneye]

Look where that second system is by end of run. Is still as a hurricane surpassing 120W longitude.

[cycloneye]

0%/40%

A tropical wave located just west of Costa Rica and Nicaragua is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system by the
middle of the week while it moves westward, well south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Twisted-core]

Looking ahead, here's a glimpse of what looks to be the annual July wave train that could begin during the second week of July:

EC has nice looking easterly wave V pattern signature.
ATLmdr So yeah nice early pickup by you maybe King.


https://imgur.com/jh6HSPV

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF will also pass the 120W longitude line as a hurricane. Yes,long lived long-tracker.

[Kingarabian]

Cycloneye, bombs away on the 06z GFS. Down to 908mb.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, bombs away on the 06z GFS. Down to 908mb.

https://i.imgur.com/v7n7mv3.gif

I am telling you,this will be fun to track.As chaser Josh Morgerman says,it will be sexy and photogenic.

[cycloneye]

0%/50%

A tropical wave located just west of Costa Rica and Nicaragua is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of the week while the system
moves westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

This 2018 season is way ahead of the average pace in terms of ACE. As of June 24, EPAC has 24.5 ACE units which is above the average for the date. (9.5) On July 17 is the date of that 24.5 on average so 2018 as I said is way ahead and with the prospects for some strong systems on the pipe,for sure ACE will be way up there getting larger and larger the gap.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... astpacific