2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

12z Euro has the 0/20 and another one apart from Miriam and 90E/Norman thru day 10.

[DioBrando]

12z GFS has us to Sergio by day 16.

heh

looks like we finna reach the greeks bruh

[cycloneye]

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south or
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some
gradual development of this system is possible by the end of the
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some gradual
development of this system is possible by the end of the week while
it moves west-northwestward or northwestward farther away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Looks like Miriam will not meet the high expectations (Like Fabio,John) but Norman may exceed them if all goes right in the enviroment.

[cycloneye]

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some gradual
development of this system is possible by the end of the week while
it moves west-northwestward or northwestward farther away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

UKMET continues this uptick of activity, has Olivia and something new in the CPAC, Walaka.



PC - Ryan Maue - www.weathermodels.com

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1034519379134869509

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of the
coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some gradual
development of this system is possible over the weekend while it
moves west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

2018 now is at 14/6/4 with newly named Tropical Storm Norman that is poised to be the 5th major cane of the season and get plenty of ACE units.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical
wave. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest
of the coast of Mexico in association with this wave over the next
day or two. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend
or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward away
from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

2018 season is Hyperactive as Miriam and Norman continue to rack up ACE units and more prospects will get much more in the next few weeks.

[1900hurricane]

As far as I am aware, the Tropical Eastern Pacific has no official hyperactive definition like the NAtl does.

[cycloneye]

As far as I am aware, the Tropical Eastern Pacific has no official hyperactive definition like the NAtl does.

Good to know.Thank you for the clarificaton.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a broad area of
low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Ntxw]

As far as I am aware, the Tropical Eastern Pacific has no official hyperactive definition like the NAtl does.

165% of median I think is the ATL. I just take a similar ballpark and given the higher average activity in the EPAC, 200+ units is usually a good round number for me.

[Ntxw]

Norman is now the 5th major poised to be Cat 4. ACE is now over 150+ units.

Using the NHC latest forecast advisory At least 15 units more from Norman. On top of 2-3. May end up near 30 units.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week while the system moves west-northwestward away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Hyperactive eastern Pacific continues- at this rate will be approaching the Greek alphabet, especially if #ElNino forms in the Fall.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1034915890092036105