2018 EPAC Season

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galaxy401
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1081 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:12 am

Here we go again.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1082 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:23 am

Here comes Paul.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual development
of this system is possible through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1083 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:49 pm

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual development
of this system is possible through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1084 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:03 pm

EPAC has passed 170 units of ACE
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1085 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:EPAC has passed 170 units of ACE


And it's only the first of September.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1086 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:08 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:EPAC has passed 170 units of ACE

And it's only the first of September.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1036274316382416896


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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1087 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:10 pm

EPAC has passed 185 ACE units for the season to date. That will break into the top 10 seasons. Only 15 units left to go and with Olivia still turning out there, 200 units will likely be achieved by early next week.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1088 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:42 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:As far as I am aware, the Tropical Eastern Pacific has no official hyperactive definition like the NAtl does.


165% of median I think is the ATL. I just take a similar ballpark and given the higher average activity in the EPAC, 200+ units is usually a good round number for me.

Yeah, that's pretty close. Using the 115 unit median Wiki gave me, hyperactive in the EPac would be about 190 units using the same scaling.

Well, we crossed this number today. As of 18Z, I'm at 192.8425 units.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1089 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:06 pm

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1090 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:04 am

Some images to reflect the kind of season Hawaii is having. Shooting gallery going on in the CPAC when it comes to long trackers.

Hector

Image

Lane

Image

Norman

Image

Olivia early next week to join?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1091 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:00 am

Ntxw wrote:EPAC has racked up about 162 units of ACE. Back in 2015 the EPAC was sitting at about 160 ACE units on and around this date. More ACE will be gained from Norman and then Olivia. However, in 2015 at this time the triplets (Jimena, Ignacio, Kilo) were piling on over 10-15 units of ACE per day for about a week all at the same time, and by the end of the first week of Sept sat over 200 units. Probably one of the most astonishing feats in any basin ACE wise for a short period of time. I don't think that benchmark will be reached this year that quickly, but perspective no less.

With just two active storms, we're about to cross the 200 threshold. Hector, Lane, Norman have all contributed at least 30 units each, with the first two racking over 40 units. Olivia could be next. When was the last time we've had at least two >40 ACE hurricanes in the EPac? This is really like the Atlantic in 2017. This time though, I think all basins in the NHem could finish above normal. Impressive.

With a seasonal ACE of 196.1 (thus far), the average ACE per storm (ACE over named storm count) is 13.073 and growing. This is slightly above the average value of about 11.54 in the WPac. (26 storms, ~300). If 2018 would tie 1992 in terms of storm count (27) and maintained the same ACE per storm value, 352.98 would be the ACE value---eclipsing 1992 by a long shot. Quality over quantity this year.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1092 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:17 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Ntxw wrote:EPAC has racked up about 162 units of ACE. Back in 2015 the EPAC was sitting at about 160 ACE units on and around this date. More ACE will be gained from Norman and then Olivia. However, in 2015 at this time the triplets (Jimena, Ignacio, Kilo) were piling on over 10-15 units of ACE per day for about a week all at the same time, and by the end of the first week of Sept sat over 200 units. Probably one of the most astonishing feats in any basin ACE wise for a short period of time. I don't think that benchmark will be reached this year that quickly, but perspective no less.

With just two active storms, we're about to cross the 200 threshold. Hector, Lane, Norman have all contributed at least 30 units each, with the first two racking over 40 units. Olivia could be next. When was the last time we've had at least two >40 ACE hurricanes in the EPac? This is really like the Atlantic in 2017. This time though, I think all basins in the NHem could finish above normal. Impressive.

With a seasonal ACE of 196.1 (thus far), the average ACE per storm (ACE over named storm count) is 13.073 and growing. This is slightly above the average value of about 11.54 in the WPac. (26 storms, ~300). If 2018 would tie 1992 in terms of storm count (27) and maintained the same ACE per storm value, 352.98 would be the ACE value---eclipsing 1992 by a long shot. Quality over quantity this year.


I think 1994 but I'm not for sure, had quality over quantity but still nothing like 2018.

Olivia will probably churn out 20+ units. EPAC systems this year when they go west just wants to maintain their strength against forecast. I've been posting ACE counts for storms via NHC/CPHC forecasts and it keeps endning up over. We'll be sitting close to 2015 by early next week maybe 210 or so. At that point any additional storms will be marking the top 5 seasons to surpass.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1093 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:39 am

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1094 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:37 am

We will be crossing 200 units of ACE on the year at 18Z.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1095 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:03 pm

Yep, 200.8975 to close out September 6th.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1096 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:08 pm

:uarrow: What a wild hyperactive season it has been. Still adding more.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1097 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:11 pm

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: What a wild hyperactive season it has been. Still adding more.


After a lackluster July things have really changed... I was becoming a pessimist about to season cancel due to the lack of an El Nino and what appeared to be poor conditions, but it just proves that all you need is some sort of warm-ENSO coupled with a +PMM/+PDO combo to get an active EPAC season. Whatever long tracker the EPAC spits out ends up getting 30 ACE. It's insane.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1098 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:47 pm

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1099 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:11 am

205 units as of this morning from CSU. 1978 and 1983 will likely be passed soon (207 and 206 units), which leaves only 3 seasons ahead of 2018..1990, 1992, and 2015.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1100 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:56 pm

I wonder if this season is going to calm down now after Olivia and Paul. With the Atlantic becoming very active, there isn't many tropical waves making it to the EPAC.
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