2018 EPAC Season

[1900hurricane]

And honestly, it's no wonder that it appears the EPac is about to crank out several systems with the WPac quality monsoon trough that currently is set up in the basin.

[Kingarabian]

Can you imagine the North Atlantic looking like this?

A large area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec remains poorly organized.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is expected to form by early next week while it
moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave just west of Central America is producing
disorganized cloudiness and showers. While development of this
system is possible over the next several days, strong upper-level
winds from a system to the northwest could prevent significant
organization. The wave is expected to move westward or
west-northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/GGvcUxa.png[img]

Would be 404 Error's all over Storm2k due to users overload.

[Kingarabian]

And honestly, it's no wonder that it appears the EPac is about to crank out several systems with the WPac quality monsoon trough that currently is set up in the basin.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/U1Dp8m2.png?1[img]

How much ACE you think we can crank out by the time these current systems pass?

[cycloneye]

August looks like it may be an epic month for EPac starting with Hector that may last a long time even crossing to WPac and several other prospect systems that could be as strong as Hector boosting the ACE bigtime. Time will tell when August 31rst arrives how has the basin done by that time.

Kingarabian,I didn't see your post above before I wrote mine but is the same theme.

[1900hurricane]

And honestly, it's no wonder that it appears the EPac is about to crank out several systems with the WPac quality monsoon trough that currently is set up in the basin.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/U1Dp8m2.png?1[img]

How much ACE you think we can crank out by the time these current systems pass?

Including Hector, it could be above 50-60 units for the swarm, but with large error bars since ACE is a quadratic function of intensity. Stronger systems will crank out much, much more ACE than a weaker system, especially if they remain at a high intensity for a long period of time.

[Ntxw]

I'm going to take a bite of the guessing game also. Guessing Hector is a 40+ unit system with the assumption it stays south of Hawaii and strengthens beyond further. The eastern system might be a 15-20 unit cyclone. 94E if it goes my guess on that would be 10-15 units. 60-80 units dipping my toes in there. 41.5 units so far out there. Perhaps over 100 by month's end?

If it goes accordingly maybe we'll see triplet hurricanes spinning at the same time, Hector, Ileana, and John. Being this is August the odds are better than back In June.

[hurricanes1234]

I'm going to take a bite of the guessing game also. Guessing Hector is a 40+ unit system with the assumption it stays south of Hawaii and strengthens beyond further. The eastern system might be a 15-20 unit cyclone. 94E if it goes my guess on that would be 10-15 units. 60-80 units dipping my toes in there. 41.5 units so far out there. Perhaps over 100 by month's end?

If it goes accordingly maybe we'll see triplet hurricanes spinning at the same time, Hector, Ileana, and John. Being this is August the odds are better than back In June.

And definitely better than July.

[cycloneye]

I'm going to take a bite of the guessing game also. Guessing Hector is a 40+ unit system with the assumption it stays south of Hawaii and strengthens beyond further. The eastern system might be a 15-20 unit cyclone. 94E if it goes my guess on that would be 10-15 units. 60-80 units dipping my toes in there. 41.5 units so far out there. Perhaps over 100 by month's end?

If it goes accordingly maybe we'll see triplet hurricanes spinning at the same time, Hector, Ileana, and John. Being this is August the odds are better than back In June.

And definitely better than July.

July was dead after Fabio with only wimpy Gilma and Fabio didn't met the highest expectations.If all goes well,August should be the contrary of July by far.

[cycloneye]

Wow,that monsoon trough is very strong.

[cycloneye]

Here comes 95E.

A large area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become a little better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by early
next week while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave to the south of the coasts of Guatemala and El
Salvador is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. While
development of this system is possible over the next several days,
strong upper-level winds from another disturbance to the west and
northwest could prevent significant organization. The wave is
expected to move westward or west-northwestward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Only one area posted here as the other two are invests.

A tropical wave located south of the coast of Guatemala continues
to produce disorganized shower activity. While development of this
system is possible over the next several days, strong upper-level
winds from another disturbance to the west could prevent significant
organization. The wave is expected to move westward or
west-northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized shower
activity. Although this system has the potential to become a
tropical depression early next week, strong upper-level winds from
another disturbance to the west could prevent tropical cyclone
formation while the system moves westward or west-northwestward
south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Ntxw]

[cycloneye]

Wow,the very active burst of activity that EPac is going thru in August is getting bigger as there is new INVEST 96E that is up to join 94E and 95E in the parade. With Hector making a run to cross into the West Pacific and the new systems that are out there,a lot of ACE is guarranted but will it break records is the question.

[Ntxw]

Wow,the very active burst of activity that EPac is going thru is getting bigger as there is new INVEST 96E up. With Hector making a run to cross into the West Pacific and the new systems that are out there,a lot of ACE is guarranted but will it break records is the question.

The EPAC is going to keep you busy Luis. 6z GFS shows additional systems in the long range.

[cycloneye]

Wow,the very active burst of activity that EPac is going thru is getting bigger as there is new INVEST 96E up. With Hector making a run to cross into the West Pacific and the new systems that are out there,a lot of ACE is guarranted but will it break records is the question.

The EPAC is going to keep you busy Luis. 6z GFS shows additional systems in the long range.

Yes,saw it and if that happens,then it will be a record breaking ACE period but let's first deal with Hector and the actual Invests.

[cycloneye]

No TWO to post in this thread as all the action is with invests.EPac is in gangbuster mode.

[Ntxw]

No TWO to post in this thread as all the action is with invests.EPac is in gangbuster mode.

https://i.imgur.com/Vml95du.png

Basin is busy. Anything that wants to spin up is doing so.

[Kingarabian]

That's so beautiful. The best part of it all is they're very likely to be strong storms and all be fish.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow:

That's so beautiful. The best part of it all is they're very likely to be strong storms and all be fish.

Given that 94E and 95E are both invests with 4 days of good conditions, I would not rule out triplets ala 2015.