2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

INVEST 95E is up

[Kingarabian]

I think two more invests should be tagged soon. All models develop a system by Friday, before or after crossing 140W, and are on and off on developing the disturbance behind it by this weekend.

[Ntxw]

Fuse has been lit. Rosa will make a run at cat 3/4 and the area southeast of Hawaii will move for the dateline as maybe a major also. Something may form behind Rosa. ACE collection.

[Kingarabian]

That CPAC system will likely be a real treat since it'll be developing off the monsoon trough. Hope it stays far away from Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern coast of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical cyclone is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Satellite data and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the circulation associated with an area of low
pressure a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has
become a little better defined since yesterday. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a
tropical cyclone is likely to form over the weekend or early next
week while it moves west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 96E is up

[Ntxw]

Rosa will get the EPAC to near 240 units of ACE. 96E (Sergio to be) could add another 15-20 units like Rosa depending on strength. That's not including 97C before the IDL, this could get interesting as it could threaten 2015 and 1992 for the record.

[Ntxw]

Certainly helps the stat when every major (7) has made it to Cat 4 or higher.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1045735922162192384

[hurricanes1234]

Certainly helps the stat when every major (7) has made it to Cat 4 or higher.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1045735922162192384

And there's quite possibly more to come, especially in the near future with 96E and 97C. I think there's a legitimate chance this season either surpasses or comes very close to the ACE record in a single season.

[Ntxw]

Certainly helps the stat when every major (7) has made it to Cat 4 or higher.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1045735922162192384

And there's quite possibly more to come, especially in the near future with 96E and 97C. I think there's a legitimate chance this season either surpasses or comes very close to the ACE record in a single season.

Going by just the currently active systems, NHC forecast could yield an addition 6-7 units for Rosa with about 11 in the books. Probably end up around 20 units for her total. Sergio might get a little more given his latitude and slower movement in his mid life so 20-25 units there is my guess. 25-30 units additional between those two in the eastern basin. 97C is a wild card, it has a really high ceiling and can pump anywhere between 20-40 units depending on strength and path before the IDL. You're looking at 40-60 units from all three. That's ~270-290 when they are done which is in range of the record.

One more additional Hurricane of consequence and the record likely breaks.

[hurricanes1234]

Certainly helps the stat when every major (7) has made it to Cat 4 or higher.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1045735922162192384

And there's quite possibly more to come, especially in the near future with 96E and 97C. I think there's a legitimate chance this season either surpasses or comes very close to the ACE record in a single season.

Going by just the currently active systems, NHC forecast could yield an addition 6-7 units for Rosa with about 11 in the books. Probably end up around 20 units for her total. Sergio might get a little more given his latitude and slower movement in his mid life so 20-25 units there is my guess. 25-30 units additional between those two in the eastern basin. 97C is a wild card, it has a really high ceiling and can pump anywhere between 20-40 units depending on strength and path before the IDL. You're looking at 40-60 units from all three. That's ~270-290 when they are done which is in range of the record.

One more additional Hurricane of consequence and the record likely breaks.

Agreed, because after these systems dissipate, we still have most of October and all of November to go. I would expect there to be at least one strong hurricane after that and I would be very surprised if we don't have one. Heck, if things continue at this rate into October and November, there's a chance we could even see the record of 11 major hurricanes at least almost tied as well.

[Ntxw]

Agreed, because after these systems dissipate, we still have most of October and all of November to go. I would expect there to be at least one strong hurricane after that and I would be very surprised if we don't have one. Heck, if things continue at this rate into October and November, there's a chance we could even see the record of 11 major hurricanes at least almost tied as well.

All this with July doing diddly squat. What a comeback it has been

[EquusStorm]

Slightly off topic but, this is a neat looking extratropical system between Oregon and the Aleutians... definitely made me do a double take for a second

[Ntxw]

Slightly off topic but, this is a neat looking extratropical system between Oregon and the Aleutians... definitely made me do a double take for a second

https://horsesnhurricanes.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/goes22002018272gr9lwb.jpg

There are countless of these in the North Pacific that are largely ignored, even more than they occur in the NATL. In the Atlantic they are often classified as subtropical but aren't even given a look on the other side.

Earlier in the season, ex-Lane, or the trough that picked up Lane reformed and what looked like a Hurricane south of the Aleutians, largely ignored.

[EquusStorm]

I get the feeling that official organizations are loathe to even look into intriguing systems where they "shouldn't be" - far from historical tracks or where waters are deemed too cold for subtropical development, without taking much of the upper air environment that could possibly offset the negatives into account. Though, I guess the term subtropical is a pretty broad one.

[Ntxw]

Kind of intriguing Sergio is going to hang around for awhile and put up serious ACE. A lot more than earlier forecast.

Completely anecdotal but Olaf did something similar in 2015 albeit further west. Then rumblings of Central American Gyre and Western Carib formation over in the Atlantic but Patricia (models hardly even had her to become much of anything days before) came out of nowhere and snatched all the attention away from that Gyre. Will we see a repeat?

[Yellow Evan]

Kind of intriguing Sergio is going to hang around for awhile and put up serious ACE. A lot more than earlier forecast.

Completely anecdotal but Olaf did something similar in 2015 albeit further west. Then rumblings of Central American Gyre and Western Carib formation over in the Atlantic but Patricia (models hardly even had her to become much of anything days before) came out of nowhere and snatched all the attention away from that Gyre. Will we see a repeat?

Olaf formed much further west so the MJO/CCKW was still moving east at the time and thus was in position for a little something a few days later.

[Kingarabian]

EPS and some GFS runs hinting at a system developing near Mexico in 15-16 days. That and possibly a hurricane in November will possibly push us towards 300 ACE.

[Ntxw]

Operationally Walaka becomes the second Cat 5 of the season for the EPAC+CPAC (Hector can make a strong case post season, a reasonable case for Norman). ACE for Walaka via the CPHC 5 day forecast yields an additional 20 units on top of the 5 done. Sergio has about 2 units so far so the season is sitting around 240 units. Sergio has kind of been slow to progress so the NHC forecast yields about 10 units more through 5 days. That gets to about 270.