2018 EPAC Season

[NotSparta]

webberweather
Replying to @NotSparta_wx @raileyky and 2 others
Good luck keeping the EP quiet w/ warm neutral ENSO and raging +PMM, this will push the ITCZ there further north favoring more TC activity that'll increase the shear in the Caribbean regardless of whether there's actually an El Nino or not. See 2014...

I think the CPAC will be more active too because it seems the +PMM is getting eroded a bit on the east side

[cycloneye]

GFS has again that long range TC but you know the drill.

[NotSparta]

GFS has again that long range TC but you know the drill.

As normal for the GFS, this is probably a ghost or overdone, but I'm leaning to the latter since conditions look favorable for the EPAC in that time period.

[Kingarabian]

webberweather
Replying to @NotSparta_wx @raileyky and 2 others
Good luck keeping the EP quiet w/ warm neutral ENSO and raging +PMM, this will push the ITCZ there further north favoring more TC activity that'll increase the shear in the Caribbean regardless of whether there's actually an El Nino or not. See 2014...

I think the CPAC will be more active too because it seems the +PMM is getting eroded a bit on the east side

If we get even a hint of an El Nino, expect a high ACE, above average EPAC hurricane season.

[NotSparta]

webberweather
Replying to @NotSparta_wx @raileyky and 2 others
Good luck keeping the EP quiet w/ warm neutral ENSO and raging +PMM, this will push the ITCZ there further north favoring more TC activity that'll increase the shear in the Caribbean regardless of whether there's actually an El Nino or not. See 2014...

I think the CPAC will be more active too because it seems the +PMM is getting eroded a bit on the east side

If we get even a hint of an El Nino, expect a high ACE, above average EPAC hurricane season.

I'm expecting an above average season for the EPAC, even when it was shut down last year it managed to be an average season. Seems that EPAC is currently in an active base state

[cycloneye]

Another Webb tweet about this.

@webberweather
The observational record shows that this feature is liable to remain quasi-stationary or in the subtropical North Pacific, too far south to effectively project onto the -PDO and eventually it'll be accompanied by substantial warming in the Eq Pacific.

[cycloneye]

@webberweather
Additionally, the EP is giving off some early warning signs that this is liable to be a busy year. The ITCZ is very active & displaced poleward despite a sig. convectively suppressed MJO regime overhead & a suppressed CCKW also just passed by but that appeared to do nothing...

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988963128993112069

[NotSparta]

@webberweather
Additionally, the EP is giving off some early warning signs that this is liable to be a busy year. The ITCZ is very active & displaced poleward despite a sig. convectively suppressed MJO regime overhead & a suppressed CCKW also just passed by but that appeared to do nothing...

[tweet ]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988963128993112069[/tweet]

I like the thread in general, lots of different angles and things I can learn

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/988934847992352773

[Ntxw]

Regardless

EPAC and WPAC have shown early signs the conditions are similar to more active seasons. Outside window activity early in the year can sometimes signal the environment is conducive. For the EPAC early May system(s) might be that sign if it happens.

[Yellow Evan]

It's so weird seeing stuff I discovered years ago on my own regarding the best EPAC SST profile get sufficient attention by others. A +PNM is a promising factor but it really isn't any different in the long run (Webb is too focused on individual monthly PNM profile's) than 2014/15 and select early 90s and mid 80s seasons.

[Kingarabian]

It's so weird seeing stuff I discovered years ago on my own regarding the best EPAC SST profile get sufficient attention by others. A +PNM is a promising factor but it really isn't any different in the long run (Webb is too focused on individual monthly PNM profile's) than 2014/15 and select early 90s and mid 80s seasons.

Well make a twitter so we can quote your tweets on here then

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Eastern Pacific danger lurking in the second week of May... @tuffiewx @canedancerlix @DBrownie23 @NCSUCane @davez011

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/989837269866565632

[Yellow Evan]

It's so weird seeing stuff I discovered years ago on my own regarding the best EPAC SST profile get sufficient attention by others. A +PNM is a promising factor but it really isn't any different in the long run (Webb is too focused on individual monthly PNM profile's) than 2014/15 and select early 90s and mid 80s seasons.

Well make a twitter so we can quote your tweets on here then

I mean I use twitter just don't really talk much on it

Nevertheless, I'm seeing some hints looking at the EPS members of activity near 10N 105W after May 10 which isn't really an unusual spot for TC activity for this time of year so I buy it.

[NotSparta]

Tropical Tidbits SST analysis shows cooling of EPAC west of 110W, though with warming ENSO region

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Tidbits SST analysis shows cooling of EPAC west of 110W, though with warming ENSO region

[img]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5008ce9e145491c685a2e9a5e61502ce74566d3b3c8902cc0ca1eda905a5f854.png?w=800&h[img]

I wouldn't worry about EPAC temperatures. SST's will always support a hurricane all the way up to Baja California. If looking for prohibitive EPAC development factors, I would look at to see if there is sinking motion and higher than normal shear.

In the EPAC's case, the MDR for this basin technically extends all the way deep into south central America where the SST's are always boiling. So african waves that don't develop in the Atlantic and make it to the EPAC have very little resistance. The reason why we carefully analyze the MDR SST's in the Atlantic, is because the tropical waves emerging off western Africa need the waters to be warm so they can develop and have a fighting chance to become legit storms. Else they remain weak since they also deal with dry air and shear thus running into SA or CA.

[NotSparta]

Tropical Tidbits SST analysis shows cooling of EPAC west of 110W, though with warming ENSO region

[img]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5008ce9e145491c685a2e9a5e61502ce74566d3b3c8902cc0ca1eda905a5f854.png?w=800&h[img]

I wouldn't worry about EPAC temperatures. SST's will always support a hurricane all the way up to Baja California. If looking for prohibitive EPAC development factors, I would look at to see if their is sinking motion and higher than normal shear.

In the EPAC's case, the MDR for this basin technically extends all the way deep into south central America where the SST's are always boiling. So african waves that don't develop in the Atlantic and make it to the EPAC have very little resistance. The reason why we carefully analyze the MDR SST's in the Atlantic, is because the tropical waves emerging off western Africa need the waters to be warm so they can develop and have a fighting chance to become legit storm. Else they remain weak since they also deal with dry air and shear thus running into SA or CA.

Seems that the southern edge of the MDR is like the Atlantic's Gulf of Mexico. If the SSTs cool more however, the ITCZ might be less displaced north

[cycloneye]

GFS once again is trying to spin something in very long range (May 15) that coincides with the start of the season.

[NotSparta]

GFS once again is trying to spin something in very long range (May 15) that coincides with the start of the season.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/OGBqLsA.png[img]

I could see that, not so much the nearly major hurricanes it tries to spin up

[Chris90]

GFS once again is trying to spin something in very long range (May 15) that coincides with the start of the season.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/OGBqLsA.png[img]

I could see that, not so much the nearly major hurricanes it tries to spin up

The thing to remember is that the EPac can and does produce majors within the first 3-4 weeks of the season, especially in those favorable years. Considering current trends indicating the EPac may be working with enhanced favorable conditions this year, any trends towards majors developing in the next few weeks could possibly verify.

[NotSparta]

GFS once again is trying to spin something in very long range (May 15) that coincides with the start of the season.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/OGBqLsA.png[img]

I could see that, not so much the nearly major hurricanes it tries to spin up

The thing to remember is that the EPac can and does produce majors within the first 3-4 weeks of the season, especially in those favorable years. Considering current trends indicating the EPac may be working with enhanced favorable conditions this year, any trends towards majors developing in the next few weeks could possibly verify.

Oh I know, but at one point it showed a ~970mb hurricane for May 10, which is pretty early