2018 EPAC Season

[Shell Mound]

I have a feeling that we may well see a powerful, late-October system that curves into Mexico à la Patricia (2015). The long-range ECMWF is hinting at this.

Given favourably low vertical wind shear and the largely undisturbed thermocline offshore of Mexico, a compact, stacked system could intensify explosively.

[Ntxw]

I have a feeling that we may well see a powerful, late-October system that curves into Mexico à la Patricia (2015). The long-range ECMWF is hinting at this.

We've been waiting for this to show up. It's been lurking in the background. It's almost signature El Nino to get something very strong paralleling the southwest Mexican coast late in the season Like Linda, Rick, and Patricia.

[Shell Mound]

I have a feeling that we may well see a powerful, late-October system that curves into Mexico à la Patricia (2015). The long-range ECMWF is hinting at this.

We've been waiting for this to show up. It's been lurking in the background. It's almost signature El Nino to get something very strong paralleling the southwest Mexican coast late in the season Like Linda, Rick, and Patricia.

Let's say Michael is posthumously upgraded to Cat-5 status (140 knots) at landfall and we get the most prolific ACE index for the EPAC on record and a Cat-5, late-October system makes landfall on the Pacific side of Mexico. The very fact that this even has a possibility, however slim, of verifying makes one pause. This kind of combination would be quite remarkable, given a well-above-average EPAC and a slightly-above-average Atlantic, with El Niño present. As it currently stands, 2018 will easily go down as among the rarest, most remarkable, and, unfortunately, destructive EPAC/Atlantic combinations on record. Somehow, Michael would make a fitting and harrowing parallel to a sister system on the Pacific coast of Mexico. (Another ridiculous fact: the 2018 EPAC name list contains "Yolanda," which was the Filipino designation for Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. "Willa," which sounds a bit like Wilma, is also on this year's EPAC list. The upcoming name is "Tara.")

[Ntxw]

I have a feeling that we may well see a powerful, late-October system that curves into Mexico à la Patricia (2015). The long-range ECMWF is hinting at this.

We've been waiting for this to show up. It's been lurking in the background. It's almost signature El Nino to get something very strong paralleling the southwest Mexican coast late in the season Like Linda, Rick, and Patricia.

Let's say Michael is posthumously upgraded to Cat-5 status (140 knots) at landfall and we get the most prolific ACE index for the EPAC on record and a Cat-5, late-October system makes landfall on the Pacific side of Mexico. The very fact that this even has a possibility, however slim, of verifying makes one pause. This kind of combination would be quite remarkable, given a well-above-average EPAC and a slightly-above-average Atlantic, with El Niño present. As it currently stands, 2018 will easily go down as among the rarest, most remarkable, and, unfortunately, destructive EPAC/Atlantic combinations on record. Somehow, Michael would make a fitting and harrowing parallel to a sister system on the Pacific coast of Mexico. (Another ridiculous fact: the 2018 EPAC name list contains "Yolanda," which was the Filipino designation for Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. "Willa," which sounds a bit like Wilma, is also on this year's EPAC list. The upcoming name is "Tara.")

It's no doubt warming SSTs have played a significant role. The poleward expansion of the Hadley cell and SSTs moving north/warming have extended, as well as allowed a better life for such systems. The tropics have moved northward some. Your typical "El Nino" or "La Nina" patterns don't work entirely the same way as it has in years past.

[Ntxw]

Here is "Tara" on the 18z GFS in the holy waters of the EPAC intensifying quickly.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 98E is up

This is not what the models develop as a strong hurricane that Ntxw posted above.

[Ntxw]

In a weird twist 98E the models do try to develop before being enveloped or mingling with the big one behind it. It's possible 98E may become Tara first, making the second larger one as Vicente.

However only the 0z suite really tried to do this so waiting game and see.

[cycloneye]

I guess the one the models develop as a strong hurricane will begin to be mentioned in the next TWO as 12z GFS is inside 5 days now.

[cycloneye]

Already at 969 mbs at 168 hours.

[cycloneye]

Down to 942 mbs in 192 hours.

[cycloneye]

Getting closer to Patricia 2015 territory.922 mbs at 216 hours.

[cycloneye]

Is a big threat to Los Cabos/BCS and Sinaloa if it goes that way and be this strong. An Odile 2014 type that the area saw.

[cycloneye]

Here is the first mention.

A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south
of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for
development of the system while it moves generally westward, well
offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[EquusStorm]

This year could be our best chance in a long time to get past the W and enter the auxiliary XYZ, if we remain active into November

[Kingarabian]

Getting closer to Patricia 2015 territory.922 mbs at 216 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/pBc7TVI.png

May have a shot at being the strongest storm of the 2018 EPAC season. Don't think the GFS showed any sub 900 pressures for Patricia in its developing stages.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is stronger than 12z.At 192 hours,926 mbs at 18z vs 942 mbs at 12z.

[cycloneye]

Below the 920's.

[SconnieCane]

Going to do the Fujiwhara with that little 981 mb system?

[Chris90]

It would be fitting if Tara formed first and the big one was named Vicente. It's been the male names this year that have been reaching for or achieving Cat 5 status. Hector, Lane, Norman, and I believe Walaka is traditionally a male name as well.
I would just like to see the basin reach the Greek. Might as well do that too while breaking the ACE record. Hopefully all future storms stay away from Mexico though. Some of these model runs are looking ominous for Mexico/Baja.

[cycloneye]

A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south
of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for
development of the system while it moves generally westward,
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.