2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Looks like GFS will have the strongest run yet for that big one.

[cycloneye]

Looks like GFS will have the strongest run yet for that big one.

Well,it got weaker because of an unexpected twin.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS is probably overdoing interactions here but I wouldn't be shocked if Gilma is within 10 days away.

[cycloneye]

CPC is on board with the heavy EPAC activity.

Last Updated: 06.22.18 Valid: 06.23.18 - 07.03.18
The most substantial changes in today's update are found in the Eastern Pacific. Model guidance has picked up on the potential for tropical cyclone formation during Week-1 and there is now high confidence that at least one, but perhaps two, tropical cyclones will develop in the East Pacific within the next five days. This decision is supported by a series of vorticity maxima forecast to move over an area of warm SSTs and low wind shear. These same factors are expected to continue into Week-2 and model guidance is still supportive of tropical cyclone formation. The forecast tropical cyclone and above-normal rainfall regions have been expanded eastward and upgraded to high confidence to account for updated model developments.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

[cycloneye]

00z GFS has four before July 1.

[cycloneye]

Now we can say GFS has the strongest run so far for the big one since it began to show it.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,what Euro has in front of the big one is 94E?

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian,what Euro has in front of the big one is 94E?

Probably future 96E, which absorbs 94E. The main source of energy for the TC before the big storm is situated near 95W.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,what Euro has in front of the big one is 94E?

Probably future 96E, which absorbs 94E. The main source of energy for the TC before the big storm is situated near 95W.

NHC mentioned that in TWO for 94E

Conditions may become more
conducive for development when a second weather system approaches
this disturbance from the east over the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle of next week well
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

[cycloneye]

The big picture.

[cycloneye]

12z ICON has the strongest run yet for the big one and starts on day 5.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS. No doubt a fairly potent tropical cyclone will be traversing the EPAC in the near future. Followed behind by potentially a long tracker



Water is plenty warm and upper conditions will become favorable

[cycloneye]

12z GFS beats the 00z run on the strongest run yet theme. (924 mbs)

[Ntxw]

Peaks at 915mb on this run

[cycloneye]

What about 2018 season having 4 major canes before July 15? Actual numbers are 3/2/2.

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

A tropical wave moving across Central America into the eastern
Pacific is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system by the middle of next week while it moves westward south of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro tries to not lift too much in latitude and if that occurs,it will give the system more time in warmer waters and be a long-tracker.

[CyclonicFury]

Neither 94E or 95E are likely to generate much ACE - conditions do not look favorable for either one to become a long track hurricane. However, the new AOI is likely to become a long track, potentially major, hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

What about 2018 season having 4 major canes before July 15? Actual numbers are 3/2/2.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/VNvt2ou.gif[img]

With Daniel, Emilia, and Fabio being modeled out before July 1, I'm having a very hard time finding a season that had 7 TC's before July.