2018 EPAC Season

[Chris90]

There's a nice amount of convection present already. Reminds me of the ball of convection that became One-E just a few days ago.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is back with a long range storm south of CentralAmerica.

[Kingarabian]

00z runs from the GFS and Euro show support for a weak system just in the western EPAC:

[cycloneye]

No mention yet from NHC.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[NDG]

By this time in 2014 models were already latching on development on their mid range of the first named system over the EPAC, Amanda, which became a Cat 4.

[cycloneye]

The Canadian model is the only one so far developing a Tropical Cyclone south of CentralAmerica in less than 7 days.

[Yellow Evan]

The Canadian model is the only one so far developing a Tropical Cyclone south of CentralAmerica in less than 7 days.

https://i.imgur.com/f4AnUcC.png

Yeah CMC does this every May and June. This isn't anything new.

[cycloneye]

Will the trend be for the 2018 season that the majority of Tropical Cyclones that form do it past 120w and cross into CPAC? I would like to see longtrackers that are the best to follow like Fernanda as an example. 12z ECMWF has a system doing that.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,what is going in the basin that is not showing any candidate to develop in the models after ONE-E formed two weeks ago?

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian,what is going in the basin that is not showing any candidate to develop in the models after ONE-E formed two weeks ago?

Nina like forcing, where all the rising air is in the IO (that's why we've seen two cyclones in this region), and all the sinking air is situated in the Pacific ocean.



Expect it to change by the beginning of June.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,what is going in the basin that is not showing any candidate to develop in the models after ONE-E formed two weeks ago?

Nina like forcing, where all the rising air is in the IO (that's why we've seen two cyclones in this region), and all the sinking air is situated in the Pacific ocean.

https://i.imgur.com/AAlJNjf.png

Expect it to change by the beginning of June.

Thank you for the graphic.Hopefully things beginn to heat up as I want to see longtrackers.

[cycloneye]

Not good news about some malfunction of the new GOES 17 West but hopefully they fix it soon.

[CyclonicFury]

Looking like a slow start for this basin. I think this EPAC season will be heavily backloaded.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking like a slow start for this basin. I think this EPAC season will be heavily backloaded.

Season is eight days old and we already have 1 TD.

[SoupBone]

Looking like a slow start for this basin. I think this EPAC season will be heavily backloaded.

Season is eight days old and we already have 1 TD.

Hmmm...the season hasn't started yet. June 1st my friend.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looking like a slow start for this basin. I think this EPAC season will be heavily backloaded.

Season is eight days old and we already have 1 TD.

Hmmm...the season hasn't started yet. June 1st my friend.

The Atlantic season starts June 1st. The EPAC starts May 15th.

[SoupBone]

Season is eight days old and we already have 1 TD.

Hmmm...the season hasn't started yet. June 1st my friend.

The Atlantic season starts June 1st. The EPAC starts May 15th.

Doh! I thought I was in the daily Atlantic thread. Too many tabs opened. My apologies.

[cycloneye]

NOAA Eastern Pacific outlook:

The outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

14-20 Named Storms
7-12 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 80%-160% of the median.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... icane.html

[Yellow Evan]

Important bit from the outlook:

Three of the last four eastern Pacific hurricane seasons were above normal. This increase in activity compared to the previous 1995-2013 period was accompanied by a sharp increase in SSTs across the hurricane region. The anomalous 2014-17 warmth during the peak months of the season (July-September, JAS) has been far larger than any other period in the historical record dating back to 1950. This warmth was associated with the positive phase of the PDO, and also had a strong projection onto the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM, Murakami et al., 2016, J. Climate). The PMM features a north-south dipole pattern of SST anomalies across the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean, with warmer (cooler) than average SSTs in the North Pacific (South Pacific). Thus, both the positive PDO and PMM pattern feature above-average SSTs in the eastern and central Pacific hurricane regions.

The most recent SST anomaly pattern again shows above-average SSTs in the eastern and central Pacific hurricane regions, and the March-April 2018 SST anomalies were comparable to those during 2014-17. In addition, the 2018 pattern features below-average SSTs across the eastern half of the tropical South Pacific Ocean. This overall pattern projects very strongly onto the PMM, which Murakami et al. (2016) linked to a more active 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season.

For July-September 2018, NOAA's CFS model predicts a likely continuation of the anomalous warmth across a large portion of the tropical eastern and central North Pacific. This forecast is consistent with predictions from the NMME model, the GFDL models, and the ECMWF. Consequently, this 2018 hurricane outlook reflects a prediction for above-average SSTs in the eastern Pacific main hurricane development region. The combination of this anomalous warmth and a weak El Niño could put the activity near the higher ends of the predicted ranges.

[Kingarabian]

Due to some very strong VP anomalies, by mid June there will be a high chance of activity across the Pacific from the WPAC to the EPAC if the JMA is correct.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/999605680385359874