2018 EPAC Season

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#721 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:23 pm

FV3 develops only the second and barely at that and shows a strong hurricane behind this. I give up.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#722 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:32 pm

12z ECMWF is very bullish for the 0/40.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#723 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:35 pm

Okay, the 12z ECMWF doesn't really form the 10/60 anymore.

*me ragequits* I honestly prefer the 2009-2011 ECMWF and GFS that didn't spit out false alarms non-stop at this point...
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#724 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:42 pm

This is 0/40.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#725 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:09 pm

If the Eastern Pacific does not produce at least one tropical cyclone from these disturbances, that would certainly raise questions for what was originally expected to be an above average to hyperactive season. It's late July and there is a CCKW in the area, so it's a bit surprising that not one TC has formed yet from these disturbances. Reminds me of the Atlantic last August when we had three tropical waves being monitored for development, when only one developed (Harvey, which remained weak until it reached the Gulf of Mexico). A strong TUTT, as well as a late season SAL outbreak, kept the systems weak while in the MDR. That caused doubts among some that the season would be as active as predicted, but after Harvey rapidly intensified and Irma formed in the MDR, those doubts were quickly erased. It's way too soon to give up on this season, but I'm surprised the Eastern Pacific has not squeezed out at least one new TC this month yet.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#726 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:15 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Okay, the 12z ECMWF doesn't really form the 10/60 anymore.

*me ragequits* I honestly prefer the 2009-2011 ECMWF and GFS that didn't spit out false alarms non-stop at this point...


It's really irritating right now.

12z GFS has nothing, and the12z Euro has a weak long tracker that keeps getting pushed back. 10 days left before August starts. If no decent storm by then, it's season cancel for me.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#727 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:22 pm

I wonder if the weakening of the +PMM pattern as well as the delayed onset of El Niño is responsible for the slow July in this basin.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#728 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:30 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:I wonder if the weakening of the +PMM pattern as well as the delayed onset of El Niño is responsible for the slow July in this basin.


SST's look fine to me. Instability has been below average, and shear has been above average.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#729 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:44 pm

:uarrow:

There's still a +PMM SST pattern, but it appears the atmospheric pattern has changed, which caused the original crash of the PMM, & the pause in ENSO region warming.

Appears the NAM has something to do w/ this too, seems its anticyclone is bolstering EP ULL activity.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#730 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:51 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:If the Eastern Pacific does not produce at least one tropical cyclone from these disturbances, that would certainly raise questions for what was originally expected to be an above average to hyperactive season. It's late July and there is a CCKW in the area, so it's a bit surprising that not one TC has formed yet from these disturbances. Reminds me of the Atlantic last August when we had three tropical waves being monitored for development, when only one developed (Harvey, which remained weak until it reached the Gulf of Mexico). A strong TUTT, as well as a late season SAL outbreak, kept the systems weak while in the MDR. That caused doubts among some that the season would be as active as predicted, but after Harvey rapidly intensified and Irma formed in the MDR, those doubts were quickly erased. It's way too soon to give up on this season, but I'm surprised the Eastern Pacific has not squeezed out at least one new TC this month yet.


Something about this season smells very 2010ish. Well above-average activity in June, followed by nothing in July? The only difference was Fabio existed mainly in July but it technically formed in June. Also, during its July existence, it struggled to intensify and ended up well below what was shown by the models.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#731 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:56 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:If the Eastern Pacific does not produce at least one tropical cyclone from these disturbances, that would certainly raise questions for what was originally expected to be an above average to hyperactive season. It's late July and there is a CCKW in the area, so it's a bit surprising that not one TC has formed yet from these disturbances. Reminds me of the Atlantic last August when we had three tropical waves being monitored for development, when only one developed (Harvey, which remained weak until it reached the Gulf of Mexico). A strong TUTT, as well as a late season SAL outbreak, kept the systems weak while in the MDR. That caused doubts among some that the season would be as active as predicted, but after Harvey rapidly intensified and Irma formed in the MDR, those doubts were quickly erased. It's way too soon to give up on this season, but I'm surprised the Eastern Pacific has not squeezed out at least one new TC this month yet.


Something about this season smells very 2010ish. Well above-average activity in June, followed by nothing in July? The only difference was Fabio existed mainly in July but it technically formed in June. Also, during its July existence, it struggled to intensify and ended up well below what was shown by the models.


I would be quite surprised to see a 2010 like season. It featured a strong La Niña & a strong -PDO, while this yr has a developing Niño & a +PMM. Maybe something is going on w/ the atmosphere that is suppressing the activity.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#732 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:57 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:If the Eastern Pacific does not produce at least one tropical cyclone from these disturbances, that would certainly raise questions for what was originally expected to be an above average to hyperactive season. It's late July and there is a CCKW in the area, so it's a bit surprising that not one TC has formed yet from these disturbances. Reminds me of the Atlantic last August when we had three tropical waves being monitored for development, when only one developed (Harvey, which remained weak until it reached the Gulf of Mexico). A strong TUTT, as well as a late season SAL outbreak, kept the systems weak while in the MDR. That caused doubts among some that the season would be as active as predicted, but after Harvey rapidly intensified and Irma formed in the MDR, those doubts were quickly erased. It's way too soon to give up on this season, but I'm surprised the Eastern Pacific has not squeezed out at least one new TC this month yet.


Something about this season smells very 2010ish. Well above-average activity in June, followed by nothing in July? The only difference was Fabio existed mainly in July but it technically formed in June. Also, during its July existence, it struggled to intensify and ended up well below what was shown by the models.


Well 2010 was a pretty strong La Nina.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#733 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:57 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:FV3 develops only the second and barely at that and shows a strong hurricane behind this. I give up.


Personally I'm not putting much weight on the EPAC model runs this month because we've seen how much they can trump us, especially when they blow up all these phantom megacanes and then either they're dropped or don't come to pass.

I'll believe it when I see it.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#734 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:If the Eastern Pacific does not produce at least one tropical cyclone from these disturbances, that would certainly raise questions for what was originally expected to be an above average to hyperactive season. It's late July and there is a CCKW in the area, so it's a bit surprising that not one TC has formed yet from these disturbances. Reminds me of the Atlantic last August when we had three tropical waves being monitored for development, when only one developed (Harvey, which remained weak until it reached the Gulf of Mexico). A strong TUTT, as well as a late season SAL outbreak, kept the systems weak while in the MDR. That caused doubts among some that the season would be as active as predicted, but after Harvey rapidly intensified and Irma formed in the MDR, those doubts were quickly erased. It's way too soon to give up on this season, but I'm surprised the Eastern Pacific has not squeezed out at least one new TC this month yet.


Something about this season smells very 2010ish. Well above-average activity in June, followed by nothing in July? The only difference was Fabio existed mainly in July but it technically formed in June. Also, during its July existence, it struggled to intensify and ended up well below what was shown by the models.


Well 2010 was a pretty strong La Nina.


Very true.

But even though ENSO is in a totally different state this year, the actual activity thus far (or better yet, the timing of that activity) resembles 2010 IMO with the hyperactive June followed by a lull lasting through much of July.

We'll see what August brings.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#735 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:18 pm

More so than the lack of activity that is bothering me is how worse the models are preforming. We've had hints for literally three weeks that next week would see higher activity yet the GFS and normally top teir ECMWF have continued to push development back. Seeing some push back isn't unusual as I've repeat many time a year that the they tend to move MJO/CCKW too fast, but I've never seen the models preform this badly before. I don't think the models have a good grip on the WPAC mess either.

I'm not ready to season cancel but the odds of an active season are starting to diminish. The EPAC has a broad peak and random stretches of little activity are not uncomon, even sometimes in 20+ named storms seasons. But there's really know telling when exactly it'll wake up. For all we know next week could be quite busy, and this basin could be on its feet again or everything else could be pushed back. Or we could get nothing in the next two weeks.

It's clear though that shear is higher than normal for now (and quite frankly, higher than I've ever really seen in recent seasons) but I shouldn't be too shocked given MJO isn't exactly in an ideal place. I will say (and this would explain some of the storm track problems) is the cold water in the SE Pacific, also known as SHEM -PDO, may be contributing to less favorable conditions aloft, however.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#736 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:25 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:
Something about this season smells very 2010ish. Well above-average activity in June, followed by nothing in July? The only difference was Fabio existed mainly in July but it technically formed in June. Also, during its July existence, it struggled to intensify and ended up well below what was shown by the models.


Well 2010 was a pretty strong La Nina.


Very true.

But even though ENSO is in a totally different state this year, the actual activity thus far (or better yet, the timing of that activity) resembles 2010 IMO with the hyperactive June followed by a lull lasting through much of July.

We'll see what August brings.


You're bringing this up because you are likely familiar with 2010 more so than most 20th century seasons but that unintentionally is a hyperbolic comparison IMO. Large intraseasonal variability in this basin is not unusual and it just happened to be that 2010 had the most favorable conditions in June (although strong La Nina did contribute to the basin shutting off early). If you're gonna make an inactive season in decent ENSO conditions during active era comparison, 1979 is a good one to make.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#737 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:55 pm

12z UKMET has basically nothing in the next seven days. Many EPS members quite bullish over the next 2 weeks, on the plus side.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#738 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:59 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:12z UKMET has basically nothing in the next seven days. Many EPS members quite bullish over the next 2 weeks, on the plus side.


It pains me to see that the EPS has been WORSE than the operational Euro.

The EPS members have been clinging and been bullish on every single disturbance the past 2 weeks, and quite frankly nothing has developed.

The UKMET has been outstanding. While the GFS and Euro have been wrong about a number of disturbances so far, the UKMET didn't budge.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#739 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:25 pm

Maybe a decent window for development with better shear conditions, since the CFS shows 200mb easterlies returning over the EPAC. Easterlies @ 200mb indicates a conducive shear environment according to Carl Schreck.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#740 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:43 pm

Wind activity @ 200mb doesn't paint the entire upper level picture but it plays a big part.

And so far it has been far from conducive for TC development. Look at the difference now vs the beginning of the season:

Image

By the beginning of August, shear conditions drastically improve:

Image

Probably why models keep pushing back development.
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