2018 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

boi

which names on dat list have strong tendencies

as in

which like to be strong hurricanes historically

and which usually stay as weak storms

Daniel is the most famous one from this list.

[DANKENGINE420]

boi

which names on dat list have strong tendencies

as in

which like to be strong hurricanes historically

and which usually stay as weak storms

Daniel is the most famous one from this list.

i really only care about lane tbh
daniel sounds too common
how strong is she usually

[CyclonicFury]

boi

which names on dat list have strong tendencies

as in

which like to be strong hurricanes historically

and which usually stay as weak storms

Daniel is the most famous one from this list.

i really only care about lane tbh
how strong is she usually

Lane is actually a male name.

[DANKENGINE420]

Daniel is the most famous one from this list.

i really only care about lane tbh
how strong is she usually

Lane is actually a male name.

lane is actually my real birth first name and i'm a cis aussie female...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Quote JMA
ENSO-neutral conditions are likely during boreal summer (70%)

[DANKENGINE420]

anyway what strength is lane usually
average?

[cycloneye]

Ok guys,that is all about that.Let's return to discuss about the upcomming 2018 EPAC season.

[DANKENGINE420]

I only see daniel at c2 at the max

[euro6208]

Better to discuss that in the chatrooms. Lol

[Chris90]

There's still a lot of uncertainty with el nino at this time, but I'm personally feeling like this season will achieve a higher ACE than last year. Personal hunch is that more than one storm will achieve Cat 4 (maybe get a 5 this year?), and the majors will maintain intensity longer than the storms last year. As for what names will be the big ones, I've got a feeling about Fabio but that is it right now.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

One thing for certain if the pacific still looks like this plot does now when the season
starts it will be another lean season for the epac.

[DANKENGINE420]

also another prediction:

daniel is a copy of henriette (2013)
emilia is another c2
hector is the first major (c3)
big activity from kristy onwards
lane is a high-end c4, a copycat lester/ignacio hybrid
all c4 names: kristy, lane, olivia
all c3 names: hector, ileane, norman
all c2 names: daniel, emilia, miriam, paul, rosa
all c1 names: fabio
all ts names: all names not mentioned

no c5 storms this year

[DANKENGINE420]

There's still a lot of uncertainty with el nino at this time, but I'm personally feeling like this season will achieve a higher ACE than last year. Personal hunch is that more than one storm will achieve Cat 4 (maybe get a 5 this year?), and the majors will maintain intensity longer than the storms last year. As for what names will be the big ones, I've got a feeling about Fabio but that is it right now.

true but i think fabio will achieve no higher than a c1.
as i said, lane is the storm name to watch in 2018.
daniel is so overrated.

[DANKENGINE420]

is it me or is it that literally everyone that thinks daniel will be strong... seriously damn daniel you are overrated

don't forget that lane was a hurricane since 1988.

[cycloneye]

There is much uncertainty about how the 2018 EPAC Hurricane season will turn out to be mainly because of the ENSO factor that shows mixed signals less than 2 months until the season starts.Let's see how things evolve in the next few weeks to see if a more clear picture emerges.

[cycloneye]

I think is the first time in 2018 that a model shows something like this in EPAC but is very long range and it may not show in next GFS runs.

[cycloneye]

Well,no more showing.

[cycloneye]

I am going to ask this question with the following scenario in mind. If the PDO flips to negative while ENSO goes Weak to Moderate El Niño by late Summer or fall,how active the EPAC season will be?

[NotSparta]

I am going to ask this question with the following scenario in mind. If the PDO flips to negative while ENSO goes Weak to Moderate El Niño by late Summer or fall,how active the EPAC season will be?

Probably average, higher as ENSO is warmer, but I don't see a moderate El Nino by early fall

Weak is plausible though

[Shell Mound]

Note the very warm SSTs (+PMM) north of the equatorial Pacific. This year it has been one of the warmest on record. That is a positive indicator for an active season, as this area is the MDR of the EPAC. Near-record-warm springtime SSTs in this region are like near-record-warm springtime SSTs in the MDR. Plus, ENSO is likely flipping to El Niño (in my humble, personal view) or at least warm neutral, while the cool MDR/Indian Ocean add background forcing to the atmosphere, focusing lift over the EPAC. Plus, the long-term PDO is still generally positive. I think this year will likely be above average to potentially hyperactive in the EPAC, but details have yet to be worked out. Hawaii could see more than the usual range of threats as well. Look for late-season activity near Mexico as well.