2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

First mention in TWO of second system that models develop.

An area of low pressure could form by the weekend a few hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF up to cat 2 for second system.

[Kingarabian]

12z ECMWF up to cat 2 for second system.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/6a3NxqH.png[img]

Probably another circle very soon.

[gatorcane]

Yep that second EPAC system (future 92E) looks quite strong and another long tracker in store.

[NDG]

Yep that second EPAC system (future 92E) looks quite strong and another long tracker in store.

There's still a lot of shear ahead of them to be long trackers, way too early yet, IMO.

[cycloneye]

Future 92E tracks close to Mexican coast on 18z GFS as a strong hurricane.Makes landfall near Acapulco as it weakens.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure could form by the weekend a few hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Yep that second EPAC system (future 92E) looks quite strong and another long tracker in store.

There's still a lot of shear ahead of them to be long trackers, way too early yet, IMO.

Conditions overall look decent till like 115W. I wouldn't call them long trackers but both have good chances at becoming a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure could form by Friday a few hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Upper-level winds are forecast
gradually become more favorable for development, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Next weekend's future 92E TC could be the first major cane of season unless 91E goes bananas.

@MJVentrice
East Pacific Accumulated Cyclone Energy is predicted via ECMWF to be 7 times higher than normal next week. Model is likely seeing the first East Pacific Hurricane of the 2018 season.



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1004024874703179776

[cycloneye]

12z GFS continues to go major cane.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS actually has both areas becoming decent majors with the second getting dangerously close the SW Mexico as a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Future BUD makes landfall close to Puerto Vallarta although much weaker than 930 mbs.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%.

An area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a
few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Upper-level
winds are forecast to gradually become more favorable for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Euro has shifted to the right for future "Bud"

[cycloneye]

@DrRickKnabb
Time-longitude analysis by @NWSCPC of upper ocean heat content in equatorial Pacific shows warmer than average surface to 300 m depth - with downwelling on leading edge of oceanic Kelvin waves - arrives in east Pac as two tropical cyclones about to form.



 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1004084115581358081

[cycloneye]

10%-60%

A tropical wave moving westward across Central America into the far
eastern Pacific Ocean is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become
more conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

The models dont think so but I will ask anyway. Will the outflow from Aletta affect the developing phase of future 92E-Bud?

[Kingarabian]

The models dont think so but I will ask anyway. Will the outflow from Aletta affect the developing phase of future 92E-Bud?

That is something to consider, especially since Aletta looks to be quite large. Iwas thinking down selling would be a problem for future Bud. But looks like Aletta will be moving at a quick enough pace.