2018 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

Hector has crossed 40 units of ACE. That also brings the seasonal total to ~90 units.

[Yellow Evan]

Did the burst of activity not counting Hector met the expectations the peeps had?

1- Ileana was a semi surprise as almost was a Hurricane but thanks to John it vanished.
2-John did not lived to the high expectation to be a major cane.
3- Kristy expected the way it has done.

It was a good burst but not the stronger one I was expecting.

Hector made up for John's shortcoming honestly.

[Kingarabian]

Hector is going to go down as a classic.
John reminds me exactly of Fabio and Hilary, and just shows how tricky those type of systems have become.
Kristy has done a pretty good job.

12z Euro shows more activity soon:

[Kingarabian]

Now the past few GFS runs show development within 120 hours. And another in the long range. Euro showing development at 96 hours. Maybe developing a different disturbance.

NHC will probably take out the yellow marker soon.

[Ntxw]

It does look like the models are hinting at another possible long tracker

[cycloneye]

Here it is..

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Some
development of this system is possible by the middle of next week
while it moves westward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Ntxw]

Lane would be the next name on the list.

[Chris90]

Did the burst of activity not counting Hector met the expectations the peeps had?

1- Ileana was a semi surprise as almost was a Hurricane but thanks to John it vanished.
2-John did not lived to the high expectation to be a major cane.
3- Kristy expected the way it has done.

It was a good burst but not the stronger one I was expecting.

Not counting Hector, the activity was pretty much in the ball park of what I expected. I know that John underperformed for a lot of people, but he actually exceeded my expectations. He was so broad with so many convective bands that I thought he would cross the 26°C isotherm before he really got a chance to get going and consolidated. The fact he produced 130kt gusts on Socorro really impressed me.

Still plenty of time for other storms to come along and give a good show. I'm personally feeling like this season's main event storm will be in October.

[cycloneye]

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms centered a little
more than 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with
a tropical wave. This activity has become a little better organized
since yesterday, and conditions appear to be favorable for some
development of this system by the middle of next week while the
disturbance moves westward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 97E is up

[Yellow Evan]

EPS has up to 4 systems in the next 15 days.

[Kingarabian]

EPS has up to 4 systems in the next 15 days.

EPS has been CMC-ish this season

[Ntxw]

Epac has crossed 100 ACE for season this morning. Normal for an entire season is ~130-135

[cycloneye]

Well,what happened to CSU ACE count as Hector jumped from 49.7 to 56.2 in 6 hours.And EPac as a whole jumped from 100.6 to 107.1? A glitch?

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, looks like a script isn't doing it's job or something. The 49.7(35) is the same number I ended up with for Hector while east of the International Date Line. With Hector now in the WPac, it shouldn't be contributing any more ACE to the EPac, especially not that much in the span of one best track point.

[Ntxw]

We have Lane. 11/5/3 is where the season stands and Lane should make it 11/6/4 given ideal conditions for several days. It also looks like the storm could yield 25-30 ACE at least or more depending on track. That will bring the Epac near it's normal seasonal total average.

[Yellow Evan]

A tropical wave, located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1030435740981882887

[Kingarabian]

A tropical wave, located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the next several days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1030435740981882887[tweet]

At this rate we' can snowball towards 200 ACE.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become a little better organized since yesterday.
Additional gradual development of this system is possible during the
next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive, and any development of this
system should be slow to occur during the next several days while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.