2018 EPAC Season

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storminabox
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#861 Postby storminabox » Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:02 am

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Kazmit wrote:00z GFS much weaker, and drops storm #2.


00z Euro more bullish as well as the UKMET. Let's see what the GFS has.


Guess what,06z run has the twins again.


Why are the off cycle runs so much stronger than the 12z and 0z runs? Weird.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#862 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:47 am

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Gradual development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#863 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:36 am

storminabox wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
00z Euro more bullish as well as the UKMET. Let's see what the GFS has.


Guess what,06z run has the twins again.


Why are the off cycle runs so much stronger than the 12z and 0z runs? Weird.


Again it happens at 12z.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#864 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:53 am

cycloneye wrote:
storminabox wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Guess what,06z run has the twins again.


Why are the off cycle runs so much stronger than the 12z and 0z runs? Weird.


Again it happens at 12z.


Are we back in the 2000's now when the GFS would do worse at 6z and 18z and better at 0z and 12z?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#865 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 31, 2018 12:18 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
storminabox wrote:
Why are the off cycle runs so much stronger than the 12z and 0z runs? Weird.


Again it happens at 12z.


Are we back in the 2000's now when the GFS would do worse at 6z and 18z and better at 0z and 12z?

Despite the notion that the GFS initializes on satellite imagery, I've always suspected that the 00z and 12z GFS runs had different information than the 06z and 18z.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#866 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 31, 2018 12:22 pm

They have to continue the cut and paste until a more definition by the models become established.

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Gradual development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#867 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:03 pm

12z ECMWF turns EPAC active.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#868 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:06 pm

Image

12z ECMWF has the 0/30 into a decent hurricane and a system behind it.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#869 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:48 pm

Basin has the 10th Tropical Cyclone of the 2018 season. Let's see how much ACE it gets as WPAC has sprinted way ahead (77.6) while EPAC is at (36.7)
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#870 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:27 pm

Again 18z is loaded with systems.

Image
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#871 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:38 pm

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18z GFS through John. The left one is the one ECMWF is bullish on.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#872 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:44 pm

3 active hurricanes on the 18z GFS (Hector in the CPAC):

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#873 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:48 pm

With what GFS is doing in terms of having 06z and 18z runs bullish while 00z and 12z runs bearish,I would wait until 00z to see what it does before we celebrate the many Hurricanes.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#874 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:With what GFS is doing in terms of having 06z and 18z runs bullish while 00z and 12z runs bearish,I would wait until 00z to see what it does before we celebrate the many Hurricanes.


Yup, good idea.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#875 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:53 pm

EPS and ECMWF have been consistent on this. Hard to say what is what in the GEFS but there's support for potent development of some sort in the first week of August.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#876 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:02 pm

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#877 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:23 pm

Up to 40%.

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this system over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#878 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:24 pm

EPAC is now at 8/3/2 with Tropical Storm Hector. Let's see how much ACE units it gets but with the proyections,it looks like it will get good ACE.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#879 Postby storminabox » Wed Aug 01, 2018 4:52 am

cycloneye wrote:EPAC is now at 8/3/2 with Tropical Storm Hector. Let's see how much ACE units it gets but with the proyections,it looks like it will get good ACE.


Looks like the EPAC may have finally broken out of its funk. Looks to me like we will have an active couple of weeks.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#880 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:14 am

For the record the 11 PM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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