2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

First mention of the third one or future Gilma.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern Pacific Ocean south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system over
the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form
well south of the coast of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Yet another tropical wave is forecast to move into the far eastern
Pacific in a few days. Environmental conditions should support
some development early next week south of Central America while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro is a little bit stronger with future 97E / Fabio compared to the 00z run.

[cycloneye]

@DrRickKnabb
Good chance we’ll have Emilia and Fabio in the east Pac by about the end of June. If so, the 6th named storm in the basin will have formed roughly a month ahead of the average date. The first system well south of Cabo is likely to become a depression by tonight but avoid land.

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1012050911047254016

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro is a little bit stronger with future 97E / Fabio compared to the 00z run.

12z UKMET remains bullish on future Fabio and Gilma.

[cycloneye]

@webberweather
There's a legitimate chance we get our 7th named storm of the season in the NE Pacific before any other season on record has reached 6, we'll likely be the fastest to reach 6 named storms. A +PMM coupled to a -AMO & a NINO w/ a wet Sahel is the perfect recipe for a big EP season.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1012066078611132416

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Six-E has formed

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Tropical Depression 06E born in the Eastern Pacific -- one of many in a parade of storms on the way. Next name is "Emilia" then "Fabio"

No threat to land -- except for higher surf or waves along the coasts.

[cycloneye]

Down to 919 mbs on 18z GFS.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS back to making Fabio a cat.5 again:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/ZignYFM.gif[img]

Also delays strengthening for a good 48 hours compared to previous runs.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS back to making Fabio a cat.5 again:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/ZignYFM.gif[img]

Also delays strengthening for a good 48 hours compared to previous runs.

We posted the same loop. In other news,future Gilma is getting down there in pressure.

[cycloneye]

And then at the end is Hector as another hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS back to making Fabio a cat.5 again:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/ZignYFM.gif[img]

Also delays strengthening for a good 48 hours compared to previous runs.

We posted the same loop. In other news,future Gilma is getting down there in pressure.

Has Gilma as a high end cat.4:

[Kingarabian]

I always love Dr. Ventrice's inputs, but he is still not interested in this uptick of EPAC activity (no tweets yet). Probably because his graphics continue to show what appears to be suppressed atmospheric conditions while the global models continue to show major hurricanes plowing through the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS summary:

1-Emilia is a cat 1.
2-Fabio is a high end cat 4 or 5.
3-Gilma is a cat 4.
4-Hector is a cat 2.

[cycloneye]

40%/90% - 0%/20%

A large area of cloudiness and showers south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development of this system over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is expected to form well south of the coast of
Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to move over the far eastern
Pacific in a few days. Environmental conditions should support
some development early next week south of Central America while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

My guess is that we will have Invest 97E in the next 6-12 hours.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS lowest pressure is 930 mbs.Here is a mini animation showing that and behind is Gilma.

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave is forecast to move over southern Central
America on Thursday, and then move into the far eastern Pacific by
late Friday. Environmental conditions should support some
development early next week south of Central America while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 97E is up

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET still showing Gilma behind Fabio.



00z Euro not interested.