2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

12z ICON begins development on Sunday.

[cycloneye]

If what GFS has pans out,this would rack up ACE big time. Now starts on day 9.



SSt's are favorable until 120W for this system to get fuel.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 20 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south-southwest of Guatemala are associated with a tropical
wave. An area of low pressure is expected to develop from this
system over the weekend or early next week a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico. Additional development
is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves slowly westward
to west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

This is the area to watch.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro goes longtracker but not so strong with the one NHC is watching starting on Sunday and then the development at mid-range goes down to day 9.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro goes longtracker but not so strong with the one NHC is watching starting on Sunday and then the development at mid-range goes down to day 9.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/fLW7dmJ.gif[img]

Including the NHC's area of interest, looks like there's 3 systems in play for development by the end of June. This season is already surpassing 2015.

[Yellow Evan]

EPS spread seems least bullish on the0/20. Then there's a system that could form around June 27ish per EPS and a few days later another system behind it.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro goes longtracker but not so strong with the one NHC is watching starting on Sunday and then the development at mid-range goes down to day 9.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/fLW7dmJ.gif[img]

Including the NHC's area of interest, looks like there's 3 systems in play for development by the end of June. This season is already surpassing 2015.

Let's see if 2018 surpasses 2015 in terms of strong activity in July when Hurricanes Dolores (Cat 4) and Guillermo (Cat 2) formed.

[Kingarabian]

EPS spread seems least bullish on the0/20. Then there's a system that could form around June 27ish per EPS and a few days later another system behind it.

The first system is another Carlotta 50/50 type. UKMET has a TD and looks like the Euro has the same. Fair chance it becomes a short lived TS.

Rest of the models really seem to be liking the latter systems that you've mentioned.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro goes longtracker but not so strong with the one NHC is watching starting on Sunday and then the development at mid-range goes down to day 9.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/fLW7dmJ.gif[img]

Including the NHC's area of interest, looks like there's 3 systems in play for development by the end of June. This season is already surpassing 2015.

Let's see if 2018 surpasses 2015 in terms of strong activity in July when Hurricanes Dolores (Cat 4) and Guillermo (Cat 2) formed.

CFS shows dominant westerly anomalies in July for most of the CPAC-EPAC, and WWB's are known to spawn TC's. This also indicates that there will be strong upward motion present over very warm waters. If this materializes, I expect to see some bangers in July (and so far the CFS has done an exceptional job in its 850mb wind forecast and handling of this oncoming El Nino).

[cycloneye]

2015 was very active in Eastern Pacific and activity also in Central Pacific with some EPAC crossovers with a total of 79 cyclones.Will 2018 have the same or surpass 2015?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS bombs the longtracker starting on day 9.

[Kingarabian]

Bombs it out on low resolution. High resolution that is easily a high end cat.4. Some EPS members yesterday were hinting that it could reach the CPAC as a major hurricane. Likely our first big ACE monster of the season.

[cycloneye]

0%-30%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 20 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a
tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected to develop
from this system by the weekend a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Additional development is possible
thereafter while the disturbance moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Ntxw]

It's almost crossover season. July is usually the month and this year may feature a blockbuster long-tracker season. I don't know if 2015 will be beat, that was a pretty prolific season but wouldn't be surprised if 2014-esque or something of that nature.

[cycloneye]

Yes,2014 was also very active with above average season and among the notable systems,Odile made landfall in Cabo San Lucas as cat 4 and Marie was a beast in open waters.Let's see what the 2018 season has instored but the 3/2/2 start is impressive this early.

[Yellow Evan]

Partially since shear has been consistency below average, I'm more bullish on this season than I was earlier. It's pretty clear given we're seeing all this activity in non-perfect MJO phases that much of July will be busy, and that's a stronger sign of sustained activity than compared to front heavy EPAC seasons, whose initial activity is usually fueled by a robust MJO pulse to a degree. SST's are above normal east of Hawaii and with some more SST warming, we're likely 2-3 weeks away from Hawaii having to deal with threats from long tracking Pacific hurricanes. In addition to the reasons mentioned above, I don't really see this season as one to fade in the late season given how inactive the ATL is looking and the increasing chances of an El Nino.

[CyclonicFury]

Partially since shear has been consistency below average, I'm more bullish on this season than I was earlier. It's pretty clear given we're seeing all this activity in non-perfect MJO phases that much of July will be busy, and that's a stronger sign of sustained activity than compared to front heavy EPAC seasons, whose initial activity is usually fueled by a robust MJO pulse to a degree. SST's are above normal east of Hawaii and with some more SST warming, we're likely 2-3 weeks away from Hawaii having to deal with threats from long tracking Pacific hurricanes. In addition to the reasons mentioned above, I don't really see this season as one to fade in the late season given how inactive the ATL is looking and the increasing chances of an El Nino.

Agreed, this EPAC season is likely to have activity much later into the season than last year. Unlike last year, we probably won't have a hurricane free October.

[StruThiO]

I'm excited, here's to many gorgeous and beautiful out to sea systems

[Sciencerocks]

I hope it doesn't form...

If it doesn't have recon it can just go poof as far as I am concern.