2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

00z Euro develops Gilma but in a very slow pace and is weak.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro develops Gilma but in a very slow pace and is weak.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CMdoX4p.gif[img]

That's interesting that it waits till it reaches close to 130W before developing. Something that we at Storm2k have been concerned about in regards to an increased Hawaii threat this season.

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave is forecast to move over southern Central
America later today, and then move into the far eastern Pacific by
late Friday. Environmental conditions should support some
development early next week south of Central America while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Eric Webb]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1012372629397950465

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move into the far eastern Pacific by
Saturday. Environmental conditions should support some development
early next week south of Central America and Mexico while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Near record eastern Pacific season continues.... I’d set the over/under like for the number of storms in this season to be 20 now sigh

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET still has Fabio intensifying (976mb) and Gilma (983mb).

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move over the far eastern Pacific by
Saturday. Environmental conditions should support gradual
development after that time while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward, south of Central America and Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Have conditions in EPAC turned unfavorable? Models for the most part had abandon the idea of having several systems with some of them becoming mayor canes. This run was from June 25
at 150 hours when all was fine.



Run from June 29 at 06Z at 150 hours.

[Ntxw]

Have conditions in EPAC turned unfavorable? Models for the most part had abandon the idea of having several systems with some of them becoming mayor canes. This run was from June 25
at 150 hours when all was fine.

The systems are taking their time to consolidate. 97E I think will still be the big one once it gets act together. Lets see where things are by the end of the weekend

[cycloneye]

18z ICON has Gilma back.Let's see if GFS shows it again.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is more stronger.

[Kingarabian]

Let's see if it brings back Gilma

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Let's see if it brings back Gilma

It has Gilma and also Hector on long range.

[cycloneye]

Looks like we wont see Gilma anytime soon.

A tropical wave is forecast to move over the far eastern Pacific
Ocean this weekend. Development of this system, if any, will occur
early next week while it moves westward south of Central America and
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

It even looks like the normally well performed East Pacific is underperforming. Could it be the fact that the Tropics globally are much cooler than average?

[NotSparta]

It even looks like the normally well performed East Pacific is underperforming. Could it be the fact that the Tropics globally are much cooler than average?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/VY3NeA9.png[img]

That's the Atlantic MDR and Caribbean compared to global tropics. They are cooler than average, but the EPAC has the warmest. It isn't really underperforming, it is very far ahead of schedule and is likely headed to a short lull, which are present in even the most active seasons

[cycloneye]

Emilia ends with 1.5 ACE units and lifted EPAC as a whole to 26.7. Now let's wait and see how much ACE Fabio will get but the longer it takes to be classified,the less ACE it will take.The expectations a week ago were between 10-12 ACE units but that is now off the table.

[cycloneye]

It even looks like the normally well performed East Pacific is underperforming. Could it be the fact that the Tropics globally are much cooler than average?

https://i.imgur.com/VY3NeA9.png

5/2/2 is by any means underperforming and also the ACE is way ahead of the average (26.7) vs the average for June 30. (13.5)

[Ntxw]

It even looks like the normally well performed East Pacific is underperforming. Could it be the fact that the Tropics globally are much cooler than average?

https://i.imgur.com/VY3NeA9.png

5/2/2 is by any means underperforming and also the ACE is way ahead of the average (26.7) vs the average for June 30. (13.5)

Yeah the basin overall is not under-performing. Way over-performing compared to average. What has been lackluster is that Emilia-97E so far has not lived up to the expectations. Kind of in a similar situation last year with Greg-Irwin-Hilary. A lot of high expectations but took their time to consolidate and not take maximum advantage of the warmest waters to the east before moving too far west where conditions in late June are not great like in the East.