2018 EPAC Season

[1900hurricane]

As far as I am aware, the Tropical Eastern Pacific has no official hyperactive definition like the NAtl does.

165% of median I think is the ATL. I just take a similar ballpark and given the higher average activity in the EPAC, 200+ units is usually a good round number for me.

Yeah, that's pretty close. Using the 115 unit median Wiki gave me, hyperactive in the EPac would be about 190 units using the same scaling.

[cycloneye]

From Norman Discussion.

Norman has become the 5th category 4
hurricane in the eastern Pacific in 2018 and is also the strongest
hurricane in the basin so far this season.

[Ntxw]

From Norman Discussion.

Norman has become the 5th category 4
hurricane in the eastern Pacific in 2018 and is also the strongest
hurricane in the basin so far this season.

NHC is forecasting cat 5 for this tonight. Would be second 5 of the season, one could make arguments Hector at one point may have been a 5.

[shiny-pebble]

What's the most amount of C5's a season has had?

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[Yellow Evan]

What's the most amount of C5's a season has had?

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Three, in both 1994 and 2002.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with an
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system
moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

I believe there's a strong case for Hector to be upgraded to Cat.5 in the offseason. Norman is at or just borderline Cat.5 right now.

[Chris90]

I believe there's a strong case for Hector to be upgraded to Cat.5 in the offseason. Norman is at or just borderline Cat.5 right now.

I agree. Hector's presentation at the end of his time in the EPAC, and the beginning of his time in the CPAC was truly fantastic. That annular structure was top notch, and to me, the recon data supports a bump to 140kts. I know the highest unflagged SFMR was 137kts, but there was a flagged 149kts, as well as a flagged 153kts. I'd personally use those to bump the final peak intensity to 140kts.

If Hector gets the bump up and Norman reaches Cat 5 later today, that would put us at 3 total so far. In Pacific seasons like this, quite frequently the strongest storm of the season doesn't come along until October (Kenna, Rick, Patricia). Eric Blake mentioned the possibility of getting to the Greek alphabet on Twitter, so could this be the Pacific's 2005 and we'll get a 4th Cat 5 in October that is the strongest of the season?

Interesting to note, in 2005 the first Cat 5 of the season was Emily, and operationally she was only recognized as a Cat 4, just like Hector is currently.
Also, that year all the Cat 5 storms had female names. So far, all the Cat 5 or potential Cat 5 storms have had male names. Could Vicente, Xavier, or Zeke be #4?

[DioBrando]

I believe there's a strong case for Hector to be upgraded to Cat.5 in the offseason. Norman is at or just borderline Cat.5 right now.

I agree. Hector's presentation at the end of his time in the EPAC, and the beginning of his time in the CPAC was truly fantastic. That annular structure was top notch, and to me, the recon data supports a bump to 140kts. I know the highest unflagged SFMR was 137kts, but there was a flagged 149kts, as well as a flagged 153kts. I'd personally use those to bump the final peak intensity to 140kts.

If Hector gets the bump up and Norman reaches Cat 5 later today, that would put us at 3 total so far. In Pacific seasons like this, quite frequently the strongest storm of the season doesn't come along until October (Kenna, Rick, Patricia). Eric Blake mentioned the possibility of getting to the Greek alphabet on Twitter, so could this be the Pacific's 2005 and we'll get a 4th Cat 5 in October that is the strongest of the season?

Interesting to note, in 2005 the first Cat 5 of the season was Emily, and operationally she was only recognized as a Cat 4, just like Hector is currently.
Also, that year all the Cat 5 storms had female names. So far, all the Cat 5 or potential Cat 5 storms have had male names. Could Vicente, Xavier, or Zeke be #4?

Indeed the boys are taking away everything this year! They are outperforming the girls this year (with the exception of Aletta.)

I agree Hector was quite a handsome guy.
Which storm do you reckon was the best looking this year?

[Kingarabian]

Warmer anomalies situated further north of the equator in association with the +PMM is creating an opportunity for stronger and more frequent long trackers this year.

Also peep the anomalies off of San Diego... Is this the year?

[CyclonicFury]

Warmer anomalies situated further north of the equator in association with the +PMM is creating an opportunity for stronger and more frequent long trackers this year.

Also peep the anomalies off of San Diego... Is this the year?

SSTs near San Diego are currently only about 22C. It's highly unlikely we will see a hurricane make landfall in California any time soon. That warm anomaly may allow some storms to maintain convection farther north, however, and I think a Baja threat is possible at some point late in the season.

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/jq6H0ff.png[img]

Warmer anomalies situated further north of the equator in association with the +PMM is creating an opportunity for stronger and more frequent long trackers this year.

Also peep the anomalies off of San Diego... Is this the year?

SSTs near San Diego are currently only about 22C. It's highly unlikely we will see a hurricane make landfall in California any time soon. That warm anomaly may allow some storms to maintain convection farther north, however, and I think a Baja threat is possible at some point late in the season.

Epsilon lasted a couple of days through 21-22C waters. It's doable just not very likely. Need a upperend Cat.4 recurving then turning annular. Can't have any shear as well.

[Yellow Evan]

I mean this is the most realistic way for a storm to hit California but SST's don't support it. There's also a cool tongue of below average SST's protecting Baja California Sur.

[DioBrando]

Trivial, but which storm was the most beautiful this year so far?

[Kingarabian]

Trivial, but which storm was the most beautiful this year so far?

Hector due to its annular structure and size.

[DioBrando]

Trivial, but which storm was the most beautiful this year so far?

Hector due to its annular structure and size.

Bruhhhhhh 100% agreed, he was also round and thicc

[CaliforniaResident]

Warmer anomalies situated further north of the equator in association with the +PMM is creating an opportunity for stronger and more frequent long trackers this year.

Also peep the anomalies off of San Diego... Is this the year?

SSTs near San Diego are currently only about 22C. It's highly unlikely we will see a hurricane make landfall in California any time soon. That warm anomaly may allow some storms to maintain convection farther north, however, and I think a Baja threat is possible at some point late in the season.

The SST off of San Diego exceeded 80F (26C?) earlier this summer. It has now cooled down into the low 70s but September is often our warmest month at the coast so it could spike back up into the upper 70s again sometime in September. If we do get a situation where a hurricane makes a very rapid NNW track parallel to Baja, I wouldn't rule out a landfalling TS on the Southern California coastline.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low
pressure system located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next couple of days while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Ntxw]

Both GFS and Euro are pretty certain 91E will become Olivia and hint at Paul behind her. After that 8 names left on the list.

[Ntxw]

EPAC has racked up about 162 units of ACE. Back in 2015 the EPAC was sitting at about 160 ACE units on and around this date. More ACE will be gained from Norman and then Olivia. However, in 2015 at this time the triplets (Jimena, Ignacio, Kilo) were piling on over 10-15 units of ACE per day for about a week all at the same time, and by the end of the first week of Sept sat over 200 units. Probably one of the most astonishing feats in any basin ACE wise for a short period of time. I don't think that benchmark will be reached this year that quickly, but perspective no less.