2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

12z GFS coincides with Euro on the 240 hours system around 120W.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF has dropped the 10/30.

[Yellow Evan]

429
ABPZ20 KNHC 141741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 14 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms are persisting in association with a
trough of low pressure located a little over 1500 miles
west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula. Little development
of this system is expected today or tonight, but environmental
conditions could become more conducive for development in a day or
two while the system continues moving westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[hurricanes1234]

Next system please!

[Yellow Evan]

Next system please!

You think this has zero chance at development? I've seen too many surprises to get totally swayed be one model run, especially one that not too long ago had serious problems in the deep tropics.

[Kingarabian]

I would up it to 40/50 and declare it an invest:



Edit: Heck, I would also designate the system behind it as an invest as well.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1018146718620282880

[cycloneye]

18z GFS much more bullish on the mid to long range one.

[cycloneye]

And look how the run ends.

[Kingarabian]

Up to 20/40:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 14 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure located a little over 1600 miles
west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development
of this system over the next few days while it moves westward at
about 10 mph, and crosses into the Central Pacific basin early
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

INVEST 99E is up

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro starts to develop a respectable hurricane out in open waters around day 6:

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS getting pretty crazy.

We can literally have 3 back to back minimal TS's forming in or entering the CPAC:



And tries to spin up a couple more in the medium-long range:

[gatorcane]

Pretty quiet for EPAC standards on the 12Z GFS. Looks like some TS spinups here and there with something stronger in the very long-range but that is about it.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian the good thing about the 12z Euro is it tracks at low latitude the system allowing for more warm waters to travel and gets stronger.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian the good thing about the 12z Euro is it tracks at low latitude the system allowing for more warm waters to travel and gets stronger.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CezvPkg.gif[img]

Regardless of where any EPAC systems develops and tracks, there's a feature near 20N-120W (looks like an anti-cyclone to me, someone correct me if I'm wrong) that appears to be shearing everything. Looks like it's slowly moving away from the EPAC MDR.

[cycloneye]

A new area but the window for it to develop is fairly small.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula has increased since this morning. Although the
environment is expected to be only marginally conducive, some
gradual development is possible during the next couple of days as
the system moves west to west-northwestward over the open East
Pacific. By Wednesday, strong upper-level winds will likely prevent
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

Excerpt from the 11 am TWO:

Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development over the next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.

The slogan of this month in the EPAC ...

[Kingarabian]

Euro shows favorable VP200 anomalies in the EPAC by days 5 and 6. But by day 10 it shows sinking VP anomalies returning for most of the EPAC. Favorable VP200 anomalies remain camped over the WPAC and CPAC.

[hurricanes1234]

We're probably going to end this month at or near an ACE deficit, which will offset the surplus we saw in June.