2018 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#81 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:42 pm

@RyanMaue
Nothing showing up on global EPS tropical cyclone probability maps for the North Atlantic [still a month before official start of hurricane season]. However, possible to see some activity in the Eastern Pacific as the waters (SST) are very warm -- 29°C+




https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/990977584182808579
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#82 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 02, 2018 2:01 pm

Is the first time in 2018 that the ECMWF shows something trying to form into a Tropical Depression / Weak Tropical Storm.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#83 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 02, 2018 2:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is the first time in 2018 that the ECMWF shows something trying to form into a Tropical Depression / Weak Tropical Storm.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/wVWjbXc.png[/mg]


Almost around the same time as yesterdays GFS runs.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#84 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 02, 2018 3:08 pm

Too far west for me to get bullish, at least without more consistency.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#85 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 02, 2018 4:09 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Too far west for me to get bullish, at least without more consistency.


Usually May storms are closer to Mexico. But It's plausible to have a storm this far west due to the +PMM. 26C-27C already extend up to 15N and 140W.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#86 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 02, 2018 6:10 pm

GFS shows it weak and doesn't last long.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#87 Postby weathaguyry » Wed May 02, 2018 6:50 pm

I'm definitely thinking that with the west based PMM and the potential for a Modoki-ish Nino, there will be many west based storms this year, with a lot of long trackers that go into the CPAC. If there is a year that Hawaii gets a hit, I'm thinking it would be this year.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#88 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 03, 2018 12:04 pm

More normal area of formation in May if this pans out on May 18,yes way ahead. :D

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#89 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 03, 2018 4:05 pm

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#90 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 04, 2018 4:51 am

GFS bringing the timeframe in:

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#91 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 04, 2018 7:13 am

A little bit stronger at 06z run starting at 126 hours and also has the close to CentralAmerica one on long range.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#92 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 04, 2018 2:11 pm

Euro is :layout:
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#93 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 04, 2018 3:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:Euro is :layout:


Yeah it's still on vacation lol.

Thinking the 18z GFS keeps it. If the 00z GFS continues to have it then there's a chance the Euro comes on board in its 00z run.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#94 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 04, 2018 6:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Euro is :layout:


Yeah it's still on vacation lol.

Thinking the 18z GFS keeps it. If the 00z GFS continues to have it then there's a chance the Euro comes on board in its 00z run.


Yes,18z has it again.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#95 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 05, 2018 12:28 pm

The timeframe shrinks for the close to CentralAmerica area that GFS has been showing for many runs as it all begins on day 10.It also continues to show the open water system. Now we wait for the Euro to wake up.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#96 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 05, 2018 2:19 pm

Euro has the western based TC as either a weak TS or a TD. Just develops it too late and runs out of warm waters. Pretty good chance for development I would say. Probably a yellow marker soon.

Euro also looks like it has a weak TS/TD off of Mexico @ hour 240.

Looks like the GFS and the Euro are coming into agreement.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#97 Postby NotSparta » Sat May 05, 2018 2:29 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Euro has the western based TC as either a weak TS or a TD. Just develops it too late and runs out of warm waters. Pretty good chance for development I would say. Probably a yellow marker soon.

Euro also looks like it has a weak TS/TD off of Mexico @ hour 240.

Looks like the GFS and the Euro are coming into agreement.


The first TC doesn't look like it'll break Adrian's record last year, but probably another preseason system
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#98 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 05, 2018 2:47 pm

The 00z run of Euro will be important to see if is in complete agreement with GFS but is a good sign what it has at 12z.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#99 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 05, 2018 5:11 pm

Model guidance is hinting that a tropical low will develop near
11N115W during the middle of next week and intensify as it
tracks northwest and later north. The Easter Pacific Hurricane
Season runs from May 15th to November 30th. The Easter Pacific
basin extends to 140W.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#100 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 05, 2018 6:06 pm

No change from GFS at 18z. Only the close to CA doesn't develop because it interacts with land but copious rains for those folks.
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