2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system over the weekend, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Ntxw]

Hector is definitely going to keep eyes busy on Hawaii. May be around for 7-10 days. Perhaps all this is a sign the July slumber may be coming to end.

[cycloneye]

@NHC_Pacific
The Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Summary for July has been issued. Tropical cyclone activity for the month was below average, with the formation of only two named storms (#Fabio and #Gilma) and one hurricane (#Fabio).

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1024687095783272448

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system over the weekend, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

EPAC is not in a funk anymore with Hector and these future prospects.

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next several days
as it moves generally westward across the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system over the weekend, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it moves generally westward across the tropical eastern Pacific. By
early next week, close proximity to another low pressure system
could limit the potential for further development of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system over the weekend, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%/80%.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it moves generally westward across the tropical eastern Pacific. By
early next week, proximity to another low pressure system
could limit further development of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Season is now at 8/4/2 as HECTOR is a Hurricane intensifying rapidly.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS down to 926 mbs with the 10/80 one.

[cycloneye]

If GFS is correct on long range,EPAC will have surpassed WPAC on ACE. (Unless Hector does it first) It has two more strong Hurricanes and another crossover to CPAC.

[cycloneye]

Indeed is wild.

@RyanMaue
This is one of the wildest GFS model runs I've seen in the tropics:
Only for entertainment value e.g. what "could" Mother Nature do ...
The 2 hurricanes merging is insane.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1025072161537568769

[cycloneye]

Up to 10/90.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue near a tropical wave
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next few days as it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward across the tropical eastern
Pacific. By early next week, proximity to another low pressure
system could limit further development of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec shows no signs of organization. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
significant development for the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while it moves
west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue near a tropical wave
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next few days as it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward across the tropical eastern
Pacific. By early next week, proximity to another low pressure
system could limit further development of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec remains poorly organized.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while it moves west-
northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Ntxw]

Quite a busy EPAC

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next few days as it moves
slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. By early next week,
proximity to another low pressure system could limit further
development of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec remains poorly organized.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by early next week while it moves west-
northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

And now there are three.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next few days as it moves
slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. By early next week,
proximity to another low pressure system could limit further
development of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec remains poorly organized.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by early next week while it moves west-
northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave near Central America is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. While development of this system is
possible over the next several days, strong upper-level winds from
a system to the northwest could prevent significant organization.
The wave is expected to move westward or west-northwestward during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Ntxw]

August decided to pick up where June left off, as if July never happened.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 94E is up

[cycloneye]

Can you imagine the North Atlantic looking like this?

A large area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec remains poorly organized.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is expected to form by early next week while it
moves west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave just west of Central America is producing
disorganized cloudiness and showers. While development of this
system is possible over the next several days, strong upper-level
winds from a system to the northwest could prevent significant
organization. The wave is expected to move westward or
west-northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[1900hurricane]

Heh, that's a pretty active graphic.