2018 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

The trend in the last couple of runs on the Euro is for the MJO to end up in the WPAC eventually:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/BxMOPdu.gif[img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/yZwVyHK.png[img]

The TC being modeled out is due to conditions gradually becoming favorable with the departure of the sinking motion that has been over the EPAC for the most of May.

But my question is if the mJO is barely in phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, far western west pacific, would it not be the best conditions in the far eastern EPAC?
Perhaps the Euro is jumping on development way too quickly and may not be until at least mid June, IMO.

I certainly see what you're saying. Perhaps the Euro is hinting at TC genesis due to improved local conditions.

You sir called it, credit to where it is due. My self included were thinking mid to late June. Instead it ended up with two Cat 4s in early June.

[StruThiO]

[cycloneye]

Season continues very active with the new one comming soon,although this one will not be another cat 4.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized cloudiness and showers centered several hundred miles
south of southeastern Mexico are associated with a broad low
pressure area. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent
significant organization for the next couple of days. Thereafter,
environmental conditons could become marginally conducive for some
development late this week as the system drifts north-northwestward
or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Past couple of EPS runs show either Carlotta or Daniel around June 20-22. 12z EPS has 20 members showing TC development in this time frame.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized cloudiness and showers centered several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Unfavorable upper-level winds are
expected to prevent significant organization for the next couple of
days. Thereafter, environmental conditons could become marginally
conducive for some development late this week as the system drifts
north-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 93E is up

[Kingarabian]

Weak vort signals, but possible Daniel coming up on the operational GFS and Euro in 10 days -- supports the EPS's continued modeling of a TC in the same time frame.

GFS:


Euro:

[Kingarabian]

As evidenced by the models trying to push for more EPAC TC development in June (despite unfavorable CCKW/MJO), the +PMM and the continued warming of the ENSO regions will likely now become big players in EPAC development and not just be reliant on favorable VP anomalies.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1007215589012602880

[cycloneye]

Season is at 3/2/2 and that is above the normal pace.In terms of ACE,as of this post is at 23.0 units and the average ACE for this date is 5.4.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro has area of good vorticity on day 10.

[cycloneye]

Euro continues to have fairly good vorticity on day 10 south of CentralAmerica.

[Kingarabian]

GFS also shows that area of vorticity, and some more behind it in the long range:

[Ntxw]

GFS also shows that area of vorticity, and some more behind it in the long range:

GFS/Euro/CMC all try to generate a system in the same areas we have seen systems try to form in their long range around 8-10 days.

[Ntxw]

CPC looks like continued lower pressures and active eastern part of the basin

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS now showing TS development:

[Chris90]

I'm starting to think my guess of 17/11/7 may be on the low side for pacific numbers this year, especially the 17 named storms.
I'm very interested to see what July brings considering the kind of activity we're seeing already in June. Have a feeling the EPac and maybe even the CPac to some extent will remain a TC production factory throughout the summer and early Fall.

[cycloneye]

I smell a banner season by the way things have unfolded this early and the prospects of El Niño to come at some point. Many longtrackers and strong ones may be in the cards and ACE could be way up there.

[Ntxw]

I smell a banner season by the way things have unfolded this early and the prospects of El Niño to come at some point. Many longtrackers and strong ones may be in the cards and ACE could be way up there.

It certainly has the feel 2014/2015 period. Everything wants to blow up and overachieve. Generally the upper conditions have been favorable, only early season climo (cooler waters far north) has been the lone deterrent thus far.

[cycloneye]

FV3 bombs the long range system.(Longtracker?)