2018 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 20 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a
tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected to develop
from this system by the weekend a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Additional development is possible
thereafter while the disturbance moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS has Daniel in 48 hours:

[cycloneye]

Euro has the NHC 0/30 and the big one behind that begins at day 8.



GFS continues with the long-tracker in a strong way that also begins on day 8.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 21 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with
a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected to develop
from this system by the weekend or early next week a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Additional development
is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves slowly westward
to west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

FV3 has three on day 8.

[cycloneye]

If you look behind the biggie,12z GFS has another weaker one on long range.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 21 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with
a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected to develop
from this system by the weekend or early next week a few hundred
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional
development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves
slowly westward to west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF

[cycloneye]

Strongest run yet from FV3.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has a loaded run. I count at least four.

[cycloneye]

More words to TWO.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 21 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to develop
from this system by the weekend or early next week a few hundred
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional
development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves
slowly westward to west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
surface trough is centered over 500 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development
over the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly toward the
north or north-northeast over the open eastern North Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Kingarabian]

Party has started. Let's hope they only become fishes and no none gets affected.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow:

Party has started. Let's hope they only become fishes and no none gets affected.

Still the biggie has not been mentioned because it out of the 5 day timeframe.

[CyclonicFury]

Wonder if we could reach Emilia or even Fabio by the end of June. Wouldn't that be a record pace?

[Kingarabian]

Wonder if we could reach Emilia or even Fabio by the end of June. Wouldn't that be a record pace?

Very good chance to get Emilia by the end of June. Fabio will likely have to wait till July.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow:

Party has started. Let's hope they only become fishes and no none gets affected.

Still the biggie has not been mentioned because it out of the 5 day timeframe.

If all goes really well, we could see Fabio. Unsure on the 10/30's chances as the EPS/ECMWF doesn't bite but even if that fails we have the 0/40 and the one behind that so we could get Emilia by June 30.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has the 0/40 System down to 994mb in 60 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has the 0/40 System down to 994mb in 60 hours.

That's the 10/30.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 21 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system by the
weekend or early next week a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional development is possible
thereafter while the disturbance moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated
with a surface trough is centered several hundred miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
development over the next few days while the disturbance moves
slowly toward the north or north-northeast over the open eastern
North Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

Euro develops the 0/40 and the behind biggie starting on 7 days.