2018 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

Lane has definitely piled on ACE. About 26-27 units now and could easily get another 5 to pass 30. That will bring the EPAC to near it's entire seasonal average. What a ride it has been so far in August.

[Ntxw]

It's official, Lane is a Cat 5. With that 2018 can join 2014 and 2015 as EPAC seasons with Cat 5s of late. 2018 is going down as quite a memorable season for the EPAC+CPAC. Praying for Hawaii.

[gatorcane]

Another beast in the EPAC on 12Z GFS:

[gatorcane]

Wow the EPAC continues to cranks them out the entire GFS run!

[Ntxw]

12z euro sends another longtracker west towards the CPAC

[1900hurricane]

Hector and Lane have accounted for over half the season's ACE up to this point.

[cycloneye]

Here comes another one.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 22 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur.
Thereafter, some development of this system is possible into early
next week while the disturbance moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Ntxw]

Here comes another one.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 22 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur.
Thereafter, some development of this system is possible into early
next week while the disturbance moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

https://i.imgur.com/GI4oSTi.png

Is this the one the 12z Euro sends west as another tracker?

[Yellow Evan]

Yes. Could be another Hector/Lane situation but way too soon to say for sure.

[cycloneye]

Here comes another one.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 22 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur.
Thereafter, some development of this system is possible into early
next week while the disturbance moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

https://i.imgur.com/GI4oSTi.png

Is this the one the 12z Euro sends west as another tracker?

I think this is it.

[Ntxw]

We have Lane. 11/5/3 is where the season stands and Lane should make it 11/6/4 given ideal conditions for several days. It also looks like the storm could yield 25-30 ACE at least or more depending on track. That will bring the Epac near it's normal seasonal total average.

Lane has put down about ~35 units so far and may end up north of 40.

[cycloneye]

Wow Lane will surpass Maria of WPac shortly in ACE units for a TC in the Northern Hemisphere. Lane as of 03:00z had 34.2 and Maria had 35.8. It will get close to what Hector got (50.3) preliminar as changes can occur in post season report.

[Ntxw]

Wow Lane will surpass Maria of WPac shortly in ACE units for a TC in the Northern Hemisphere. Lane as of 03:00z had 34.2 and Maria had 35.8. It will get close to what Hector got (50.3) preliminar as changes can occur in post season report.

Using the last public advisory forecast from the CPHC Lane would add another 10-11 units before he is done. He will join Hector in top 10 at least of EPAC ACE producers east of the IDL. That also puts the EPAC+CPAC season over 140-145 units. Another long tracker would easily tack on 25+ units.

[Ntxw]

That area is starting to light up a bit this morning. It will be slow to develop but anything going west this season is worth watching for.

[Yellow Evan]

758
ABPZ20 KNHC 231145
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 23 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure could form this weekend several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur.
Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter
while the disturbance moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A second area of low pressure could form in a few days well to
the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some slow development
of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward
or west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 23 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure could form this weekend several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur.
Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter
while the disturbance moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A second area of low pressure could form in a few days well to
the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some slow development
of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward
or west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

These are not the 2 that are being mentioned in the TWO but other 2 systems on long range. If it happens,then EPac will reach the 200 mark of ACE. As of 15:00z it was at 137.9 ACE units. 1992 was the year with the highest ACE total so far since 1971 with 295 units.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1032648639775035392

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF recurves the 0/20 near 145W. Given how at least until Lane models in this area of the world had an east bias this is something to watch but still very far out.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 23 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Some gradual development of
this system is possible through early next week while the
disturbance moves westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of low pressure could form in a few days well to the
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky