2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has like CMC three.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50% in 5 days

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 1 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop by early next
week a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Gradual development of this system is forecast thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form by Wednesday while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Up to 60% in 5 days

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 1 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop by early next
week a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions favor gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by Tuesday or Wednesday while
it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

I think this will be the area to watch for development.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 2 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in a couple of
days a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form around the
middle of next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

[NDG]

To get a long tracker the shear ahead of it has to lift up big time.

[TheAustinMan]

Lots of bubbling convection but nothing too organized yet. Something more consolidated will begin to develop early next week, according to the global model guidance.

7.76 MB. Source: Myself.

[cycloneye]

@DrRickKnabb
Average date of first east Pac storm is next weekend, about June 10. Could be near that this year if more than a depression south of Mexico next week. Maybe coastal rain and waves, then models show muy grande Tex-Mex ridge pushing it west away from land.

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1002940672494784512

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a cat 2 south of Acapulco on June 7.

[cycloneye]

Also GFS has another Hurricane, this one going to CentralAmerica on June 11.This could be a big disaster.

[cycloneye]

And yes,GFS has a third TC that also tracks towards CA.In other words,inside 10 days it forms three.

[Yellow Evan]

Expect the TC into Central America to shift west given the high pressure to its north. GFS is likely overdoing interaction like it generally does.

[cycloneye]

No changes to the 5 day %.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 2 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in a couple of
days a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form around the
middle of next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF now showing 2 systems

[cycloneye]

18z GFS bombs first system to upper end cat 2 and gets closer to Mexican coast.

[cycloneye]

10%-70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 2 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorm has formed a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development
of this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form on Wednesday or Thursday while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

FV3 through 5 days

[NotSparta]

I'm surprised there's no Invest yet.

[Yellow Evan]

Through day 10

Edit: Run is 24 hours old I'm poorly organized

[cycloneye]

I'm surprised there's no Invest yet.

Invest will be up anytime as convection begins to organize slowly and a low pressure forms very soon.