2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located just southwest of
Costa Rica are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some
slow development of this system is possible over the next several
days as the low drifts northward and northwestward near Central
America. Regardless of development, heavy rains causing flash
floods and mudslides in mountaneous areas are possible across
western Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Ntxw]

[cycloneye]

What a 2018 banner season.

Sergio is the record most
8th category 4 hurricane of the 2018 eastern Pacific season-
breaking the old record of 7 set in 2015. Reliable records in the
eastern Pacific for major hurricanes go back to 1971

[Kingarabian]

https://images2.imgbox.com/7f/32/N3XCm8wh_o.png

Doesn't look good for Mexico. This disturbance has great curvature and a really nice structure that will enhance the chances of a strong hurricane forming and threatening the Mexican coast next week.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[SconnieCane]

I would think there would be muchas upwelling behind Sergio, Rosa, etc or will this not be spending much time over their wakes?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I would think there would be muchas upwelling behind Sergio, Rosa, etc or will this not be spending much time over their wakes?

Neither storm sat over an area long enough to do significant upwelling. Anything that parallels the southwest Mexican coast has some of the best fuel to work with. Haven't had a significant storm parallel yet. Storms that go along that path late in the season (Patricia, Linda, Rick) can have short but intense lives.

[Ntxw]

EPAC is closing in on 270 units of ACE.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 97E is up

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1047904036354183169

[Ntxw]

EPAC is now at 275 units. Sergio will spin with decent conditions to remain at least a Hurricane for the next 5 days via the NHC forecast. 290.6 per CSU is the record from 1992 while Wikipedia lists 295. Regardless that record looks achievable now with some room to spare for an additional system. What an incredible 2018 Northeast Pacific season east of the IDL. In particular ACE wise it has been a prolific CPAC ACE season. Bang for the buck quality wise this is as good if not better than 1994.

[StruThiO]

First season with 300+ ACE?

[Ntxw]

First season with 300+ ACE?

As of this post the EPAC is now at ~277 units. NHC forecast for Sergio through 5 days gets 11-12 units which just about gets to the record at 290 to match 1992. Sergio will continue for a little bit longer after that forecast for a few more points through next Thursday/Friday. Then one more Hurricane anywhere gets over 300. Models are showing something turning near the southwest coast of Mexico.

Another record may fall in the next week, the most Hurricane days for any EPAC season. 1992 holds the record at 65.5 and currently 60.75. Assuming Sergio will maintain as a Hurricane through 5 days, that should also be broken. Major hurricane days has already been blown out of water with 31.25 days (2015 record of 24).

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northeastpacific

[Kingarabian]

Who would've thought that we would see another banner season so soon after 2015...

[StruThiO]

Yea I dont see how this wont be the most active season on record by numerous metrics. It's a developing el nino, it's not like cyclogenesis will abruptly stop. Still have all of October and November, skys the limit IMO

[cycloneye]

Basin wants to stay active.

A large area of disturbed weather has formed near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec extending southwestward for a few hundred miles across
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Environmental conditions could support
some slow development of the system over the next several days, if
the disturbance stays offshore of Mexico, while it moves slowly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Ntxw]

Basin wants to stay active.

A large area of disturbed weather has formed near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec extending southwestward for a few hundred miles across
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Environmental conditions could support
some slow development of the system over the next several days, if
the disturbance stays offshore of Mexico, while it moves slowly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Models have been persistent something strong may parallel the coast of Mexico for awhile now. Lets hope it stays out to sea.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off the
coast of southern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly toward the
west-northwest, closer to the coast of Mexico. Further development
is unlikely after this weekend since the disturbance will be near
or over land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

GFS and Euro runs continue to show the splurge of activity continuing as we enter November, with the Euro even showing a disturbance/TD near 130W-135W in the long range. Looking likely that 2018 will be in the mix as the most active season on record.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off the
coast of southern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly toward the
west-northwest, closer to the coast of Mexico. Further development
is unlikely after this weekend since the disturbance will be near
or over land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Ntxw]

293.5 sits the ACE. 295 is the record. One more tropical storm, hurricane, flying pot, anything and the record is broken.