2018 EPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#921 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:23 pm

For the next 10 days, 240 hours, the 12z Euro has very favorable VP anomalies over the EPAC and CPAC. Not a single sinking anomaly present.
3 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#922 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:20 pm

As of 21:00 UTC advisory of Hurricane Hector,it has 10.0 ACE units and EPac as a whole has returned to above average since Fabio on early July.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#923 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:29 pm

Beautiful case of monsoon trough breakdown.

Image

Image
5 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#924 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:53 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Beautiful case of monsoon trough breakdown.

Image

Image


Looks like multiple systems in the making and models show more behind 11e
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#925 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:08 pm

Always Lixon has his particular wording.

@canedancerlix
Ready for my R shift with several east pacific tropical cyclones. Atlantic unusually clear


 https://twitter.com/canedancerlix/status/1026174074966425600


3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#926 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:21 pm

2018 season is at 9/4/3 with now TS Ileana and #10 will come very soon with TD-12-E. Hector will keep adding a lot of ACE while the other systems will do their part to boost even more the EPac totals.As of this post is at 51.9 and Hector has 15.1 units.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#927 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:46 pm

Looks like we just about have John. 10/4/3. John is going to make a run at Major so could be sitting at 10/5/4 soon. ACE will go haywire with Hector.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#928 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:53 pm

Ileanna isn't in the image but just to show the craziness going on

Image
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#929 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:00 pm

Questions about Hector to clarify things.

1- When it cross the dateline to the West Pacific,EPac continues to get ACE or WPac takes it?

2- Will Hector change the name in that same situation?
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

talkon
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 204
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:28 am

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#930 Postby talkon » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:01 pm

WPAC will take it, and Hector will remain Hector.
3 likes   
DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist. Any posts I made, unless copied from some official agency, are only my opinion and is unofficial and often exaggerated. Please refer to your official RSMC for official products and warnings.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#931 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:12 pm

Yeah it it will remain Hector but re titled as Typhoon Hector and ACE goes to WPAC generated past the IDL.
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#932 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:27 pm

Ok thanks for the clarification. :)
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#933 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:16 am

I thought that Ileana with John nearby would only be a wimpy storm but will be a Hurricane to add even more ACE to EPac. This shows how favorable the basin is at this moment having this big burst.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#934 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:53 am

Recon is flying into Hector today, could find a more intense storm than what satellites estimate. Also John and Ileanna could become hurricanes so not impossible 3 simultaneous HU by this evening.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#935 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:07 am

After Hector crosses the WPAC and following the dissipation of Ileana and John, I'd estimate the ACE would climb up to 100 units. The weakening anticipated by the NHC for Hector isn't materializing, and recon could likely find a category five hurricane (or at least close to) as it strengthens south of Hawaii.
1 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#936 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:44 am

00z EPS showing a strong long tracker by day 12. Can't afford to have these systems linger near Mexico because they keep wasting their opportunities.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#937 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:04 pm

Past couple of operational GFS and Euro runs haven't shown much in the medium and large range. But I would still bet on development due to the GFS showing a large WWB over the dateline and the Euro continuing to show rising VP anomalies over the EPAC for the next 10 days.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#938 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:34 pm

Hector has surpassed the most ACE system so far in 2018 in the globe and that was Maria in WPac that got 35.8 units while Hector as of 21:00 UTC advisory had 36.5 and will keep adding more in the next few days.
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#939 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:47 pm

Did the burst of activity not counting Hector met the expectations the peeps had?

1- Ileana was a semi surprise as almost was a Hurricane but thanks to John it vanished.
2-John did not lived to the high expectation to be a major cane.
3- Kristy expected the way it has done.

It was a good burst but not the stronger one I was expecting.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#940 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:58 pm

ACE wise has been pretty good with almost 50. Hector alone will likely continue to deliver it before it crosses the IDL. John was probably the one not living to expections, it seems in the far eastern Pacific when there are multiple systems it is tougher for one to really take off lately. The power struggles fending each other off :lol:. For a 1-2 week period it has been rather active.
7 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K



Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hurricaneman, NotSparta and 58 guests