2018 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1121 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:55 pm

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 850 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has
become less organized today. Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the
next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of disturbed weather is expected to form over the weekend
a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some slow
development of this system is possible early next week while the
system moves nearly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1122 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:50 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nineteen-E located over the Gulf of California.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 850 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development late this weekend. This
disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of disturbed weather is expected to form in a couple of days
well to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some slow development
of this system is possible late this weekend and early next week
while the disturbance moves nearly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1123 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:32 pm

Possibly another moderate ACE producer on the past couple of Euro runs:

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1124 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:35 pm

:uarrow: Maybe another Hawaii threat for two reasons:

1. Model's may underdo the ridging and this slips south of Hawaii before being picked up.

2. Model's could be developing this too quickly and it only begins to organize south of Hawaii.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1125 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:42 pm

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Looks like another major hurricane SW of Baja.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1126 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:56 pm

GFS has that second one making landfall near Puerto Vallarta but being long range it has been showing different areas of landfall.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1127 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:44 pm

I'm seeing signs of another active period towards the turn of the month.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1128 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:05 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I'm seeing signs of another active period towards the turn of the month.


Looks 'like we'll see 3 named storms by the end of the month. And being that November usually gives us a named system, it'll come down to October to see if we get to the greek alphabet or not.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1129 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:23 am

Per the Euro we may not be done with west trackers. Does appear another outbreak is on the way for the EPAC.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1130 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:11 am

During the past couple of GFS has had quite of bit of phantom storms that never materialize over the EPAC, which is strange because it has been fairly conservative with cyclogenesis over the Atlantic side.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1131 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:18 am

NDG wrote:During the past couple of GFS has had quite of bit of phantom storms that never materialize over the EPAC, which is strange because it has been fairly conservative with cyclogenesis over the Atlantic side.


The past 2 weeks the GFS has created quite a bit of long range phantoms. There have been weak spin ups and invests but nothing has become big. That's intriguing the reverse effect over in the Atlantic.

Euro is on board with the coming uptick
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1132 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:51 am

Ntxw wrote:
NDG wrote:During the past couple of GFS has had quite of bit of phantom storms that never materialize over the EPAC, which is strange because it has been fairly conservative with cyclogenesis over the Atlantic side.


The past 2 weeks the GFS has created quite a bit of long range phantoms. There have been weak spin ups and invests but nothing has become big. That's intriguing the reverse effect over in the Atlantic.

Euro is on board with the coming uptick


which is why I actually buy the idea of an uptick.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1133 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:22 pm

Both the Euro and the GFS continue to spin up twin hurricanes in the EPAC.

12z Euro still has Miriam 2.0 recurving east of 150:

Image

12z GFS and FV3-GFS doing weird things with the same system and don't recurve it:

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1134 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 22, 2018 2:52 pm

12z FV3-GFS:
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12z Euro wtf:
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1135 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:21 pm

Could see some yellow/orange markers out soon.
A broad ridge continues across the subtropics accompanied by
moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow south of 23N west of
120W, with strongest winds near the trough. The trough will move
west of 140W by early Tue, with ridging building into the deep
tropics in its wake, allowing a large areal extent of fresh trade
winds. Looking ahead, global models indicate the potential for
low pressure to develop along the monsoon trough around 10N130W
by Wed, but differ on whether this will deepen much as it move
westward through late week. Similarly, a more developed low
pressure area farther east will move westward and to the south
of the Revillagigedo Islands through mid week.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1136 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:31 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 22 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure centered around 200 miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this disturbance is expected,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward, well off the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far western
portion of the eastern North Pacific in a few days. Some gradual
development of this system is possible after that time while it
moves generally westward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1137 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:29 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 23 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is beginning to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for further development and a tropical depression is likely to from
within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward well off
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far western
portion of the eastern North Pacific basin by the middle of the
week. Some gradual development of this system is possible after
that time while it moves westward toward the central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1138 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:30 pm

That's pretty far north up the Baja Peninsula on the 18z GFS @210hrs. :eek:

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1139 Postby Astromanía » Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:09 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:That's pretty far north up the Baja Peninsula on the 18z GFS @210hrs. :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/4VyuTbU.png

Image and close to category five at 126 hour
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1140 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:12 pm

The stuff happening near 130W needs to be watched closely and many have posted earlier. Hawaii again in the crosshairs, this time again maybe from the south.
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