2018 EPAC Season

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Shell Mound
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1181 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:31 pm

I have a feeling that we may well see a powerful, late-October system that curves into Mexico à la Patricia (2015). The long-range ECMWF is hinting at this.

Given favourably low vertical wind shear and the largely undisturbed thermocline offshore of Mexico, a compact, stacked system could intensify explosively.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1182 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:33 pm

Shell Mound wrote:I have a feeling that we may well see a powerful, late-October system that curves into Mexico à la Patricia (2015). The long-range ECMWF is hinting at this.


We've been waiting for this to show up. It's been lurking in the background. It's almost signature El Nino to get something very strong paralleling the southwest Mexican coast late in the season Like Linda, Rick, and Patricia.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1183 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:I have a feeling that we may well see a powerful, late-October system that curves into Mexico à la Patricia (2015). The long-range ECMWF is hinting at this.

We've been waiting for this to show up. It's been lurking in the background. It's almost signature El Nino to get something very strong paralleling the southwest Mexican coast late in the season Like Linda, Rick, and Patricia.

Let's say Michael is posthumously upgraded to Cat-5 status (140 knots) at landfall and we get the most prolific ACE index for the EPAC on record and a Cat-5, late-October system makes landfall on the Pacific side of Mexico. The very fact that this even has a possibility, however slim, of verifying makes one pause. This kind of combination would be quite remarkable, given a well-above-average EPAC and a slightly-above-average Atlantic, with El Niño present. As it currently stands, 2018 will easily go down as among the rarest, most remarkable, and, unfortunately, destructive EPAC/Atlantic combinations on record. Somehow, Michael would make a fitting and harrowing parallel to a sister system on the Pacific coast of Mexico. (Another ridiculous fact: the 2018 EPAC name list contains "Yolanda," which was the Filipino designation for Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. "Willa," which sounds a bit like Wilma, is also on this year's EPAC list. The upcoming name is "Tara.")
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1184 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:44 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:I have a feeling that we may well see a powerful, late-October system that curves into Mexico à la Patricia (2015). The long-range ECMWF is hinting at this.

We've been waiting for this to show up. It's been lurking in the background. It's almost signature El Nino to get something very strong paralleling the southwest Mexican coast late in the season Like Linda, Rick, and Patricia.

Let's say Michael is posthumously upgraded to Cat-5 status (140 knots) at landfall and we get the most prolific ACE index for the EPAC on record and a Cat-5, late-October system makes landfall on the Pacific side of Mexico. The very fact that this even has a possibility, however slim, of verifying makes one pause. This kind of combination would be quite remarkable, given a well-above-average EPAC and a slightly-above-average Atlantic, with El Niño present. As it currently stands, 2018 will easily go down as among the rarest, most remarkable, and, unfortunately, destructive EPAC/Atlantic combinations on record. Somehow, Michael would make a fitting and harrowing parallel to a sister system on the Pacific coast of Mexico. (Another ridiculous fact: the 2018 EPAC name list contains "Yolanda," which was the Filipino designation for Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. "Willa," which sounds a bit like Wilma, is also on this year's EPAC list. The upcoming name is "Tara.")


It's no doubt warming SSTs have played a significant role. The poleward expansion of the Hadley cell and SSTs moving north/warming have extended, as well as allowed a better life for such systems. The tropics have moved northward some. Your typical "El Nino" or "La Nina" patterns don't work entirely the same way as it has in years past.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1185 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:38 pm

Here is "Tara" on the 18z GFS in the holy waters of the EPAC intensifying quickly.

Image

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1186 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:46 am

INVEST 98E is up

This is not what the models develop as a strong hurricane that Ntxw posted above.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1187 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:07 am

In a weird twist 98E the models do try to develop before being enveloped or mingling with the big one behind it. It's possible 98E may become Tara first, making the second larger one as Vicente.

However only the 0z suite really tried to do this so waiting game and see.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1188 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:10 am

I guess the one the models develop as a strong hurricane will begin to be mentioned in the next TWO as 12z GFS is inside 5 days now.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1189 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:25 am

Already at 969 mbs at 168 hours.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1190 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:32 am

Down to 942 mbs in 192 hours.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1191 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:42 am

Getting closer to Patricia 2015 territory.922 mbs at 216 hours.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1192 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:52 am

Is a big threat to Los Cabos/BCS and Sinaloa if it goes that way and be this strong. An Odile 2014 type that the area saw.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1193 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:53 pm

Here is the first mention.

A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south
of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for
development of the system while it moves generally westward, well
offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1194 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:57 pm

This year could be our best chance in a long time to get past the W and enter the auxiliary XYZ, if we remain active into November
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1195 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:Getting closer to Patricia 2015 territory.922 mbs at 216 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/pBc7TVI.png

May have a shot at being the strongest storm of the 2018 EPAC season. Don't think the GFS showed any sub 900 pressures for Patricia in its developing stages.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1196 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:33 pm

18z GFS is stronger than 12z.At 192 hours,926 mbs at 18z vs 942 mbs at 12z.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1197 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:43 pm

Below the 920's.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1198 Postby SconnieCane » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:35 pm

Going to do the Fujiwhara with that little 981 mb system? :lol:
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1199 Postby Chris90 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:47 pm

It would be fitting if Tara formed first and the big one was named Vicente. It's been the male names this year that have been reaching for or achieving Cat 5 status. Hector, Lane, Norman, and I believe Walaka is traditionally a male name as well.
I would just like to see the basin reach the Greek. Might as well do that too while breaking the ACE record. Hopefully all future storms stay away from Mexico though. Some of these model runs are looking ominous for Mexico/Baja.
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Goodbye to a record setting winter, hello springtime severe season! :sun:

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1200 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:49 pm

A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south
of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for
development of the system while it moves generally westward,
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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