2018 EPAC Season

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DioBrando
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1201 Postby DioBrando » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:55 pm

Chris90 wrote:It would be fitting if Tara formed first and the big one was named Vicente. It's been the male names this year that have been reaching for or achieving Cat 5 status. Hector, Lane, Norman, and I believe Walaka is traditionally a male name as well.
I would just like to see the basin reach the Greek. Might as well do that too while breaking the ACE record. Hopefully all future storms stay away from Mexico though. Some of these model runs are looking ominous for Mexico/Baja.

Absolutely, the basin has been overrun with handsome men this year. Not to mention Sergio.
And yes, Walaka is Hawaiian for "Walter"
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1202 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:56 pm

ACE record looks to be a lock if the current Invest develops and is more than just a brief system, but kind of afraid of the one behind it. Too early to say but I can't say that our category four record won't be stretched a little further before season end.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1203 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:26 pm

00z GFS is almost the same intensity with the 0/30 one.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1204 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:32 am

11pm PDT

A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south
of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for
development of the system while it moves generally westward,
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1205 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:26 am

00z Euro is stronger than 12z run.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1206 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:02 am

06z GFS shows the lowest pressure so far since it began to have this system,909 mbs.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1207 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:25 am

5 AM TWO.

A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south
of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for
development of the system while it moves generally westward,
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1208 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:32 pm

Someone said this may be the biggie of the 2018 season and it may happen as the models are very bullish.

0% / 60%

A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south
of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the
development of tropical depression by the end of the week while the
system moves generally westward, parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1209 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:13 pm

This is probably the it storm of the EPAC season. Patricia is a rare perfect set up so beating that is low probability but a Rick or Linda type storm is in play.

It will likely effect MX and then the south-central states so hopefully we get some recon missions into the storm.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1210 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:00 pm

12z Euro doe not bomb this because it tracks close to the Mexican coast However,once it moves away it gets stronger at the end of run.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1211 Postby Visioen » Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:26 pm

I don't know, SSTs are quite low. Not enough 30+ :cheesy:

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1212 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:06 pm

If what the models have pans out,it will be the EPAC making history with the most ACE units ever well over 300.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1213 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:If what the models have pans out,it will be the EPAC making history with the most ACE units ever well over 300.


EPAC will be well over 300. A Mexican Riviera cruiser that is a major will easily tack on 15 units at least.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1214 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:37 pm

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1215 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:40 pm

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and the southeastern coast of Mexico in a
few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
the development of tropical depression by the end of the week while
the system moves west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1216 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:38 am

5 AM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and the southeastern coast of Mexico
around mid-week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late week while the system moves west-northwestward near the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1217 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:53 am

Tara will be a short lived system but will help break the ACE record. Vincente will be the bigger one that gets the EPAC over 300 ACE. The first 300+ season in the western hemisphere.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1218 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:46 am

If the 12z GFS pans out,the ACE will be on the roof for future Vicente and of course makes EPAC have a historic record. It goes more west than past runs doing a Sergio like thing after reaching around 120W turning towards Baja California causing the spike of ACE.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1219 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:54 pm

0%/80%

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and the southeastern coast of Mexico
around mid-week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late week while the system moves west-northwestward near the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1220 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:27 pm

A new area.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located just off the coast of southwestern Mexico.

1. A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and the southeastern coast of Mexico
in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the end of the week while the system moves west-
northwestward near the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


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