2018 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1221 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:23 pm

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1222 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:51 pm

Regardless of what happens with the system behind, Tara is going to get the basin to new record high ACE in the next day or so is a done deal. Now the question is how far over 300 will it be?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1223 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:Regardless of what happens with the system behind, Tara is going to get the basin to new record high ACE in the next day or so is a done deal. Now the question is how far over 300 will it be?


We'll see how much the EPAC will be over 300 and how much of a chance there will be that it ends up higher than the WPAC by the end of 2018.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1224 Postby Astromanía » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:34 am

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:eek: at 216 hour
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My country is in danger! :( , but I also want more ACE for this season and another category five hurricane would be awesome
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1225 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:35 am

20/90

An area of low pressure is expected to develop a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and the southeastern coast of Mexico by
late Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the end of the week while the system moves west-
northwestward near the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


The other area is still at 10/20.

A weak area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1226 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:47 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

1. A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua and southern Honduras
is expected to move westward into the eastern Pacific Ocean by this
evening, and develop into a low pressure system a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the system moves west-northwestward near or just
offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A weak area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#1227 Postby zhukm29 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:46 am

Now it's a waiting game for Vicente. This will be the first time "Vicente" will be used since the modern EPac naming lists were introduced 40 years ago. All we need is "Willa" and every name on this list will have been used at least once. About time too, since this was the first set of names ever used for the modern EPac naming system (in 1978).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#1228 Postby Iune » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:08 am

zhukm29 wrote:Now it's a waiting game for Vicente. This will be the first time "Vicente" will be used since the modern EPac naming lists were introduced 40 years ago. All we need is "Willa" and every name on this list will have been used at least once. About time too, since this was the first set of names ever used for the modern EPac naming system (in 1978).


Willa was already used in 1962, but we haven't seen it used since the introduction of the modern naming lists.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1229 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:45 am

12z GFS trends stronger than the past two runs.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1230 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:48 am

Vicente looks like at least a 20 ACE system
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1231 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:48 pm

60% / 90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua, southwestern
Honduras, and eastern El Salvador will move westward into the
eastern Pacific Ocean later this evening. The combination of the
wave and a strong northerly wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is expected to develop a low pressure system a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
Thursday or early Friday while the system moves west-northwestward
near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

10% / 20%

A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1232 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:23 pm

1. A tropical wave is producing widespread showers over Central
America, southeastern Mexico, and the far eastern North Pacific
Ocean. The wave is forecast to move westward over the eastern
Pacific during the next few days, and a low pressure system is
expected to develop a couple of hundred miles south of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
additional development after that time, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by Friday while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, near or just offshore the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A nearly stationary weak area of low pressure located about 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Some
slow development of this system is possible while it drifts
northward or north-northeastward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1233 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:16 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the
remnants of Tara, located along the coast of southwestern Mexico.

1. A tropical wave is producing widespread showers over Guatemala,
southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters. The wave is forecast
to move westward over the eastern Pacific during the next few days,
and a low pressure system is expected to develop a couple of hundred
miles south of southeastern Mexico later today or early Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by Friday while the system moves generally west-northwestward,
near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A weak and nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Some
slow development of this system is possible while it drifts
northward or north-northeastward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1234 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:25 am

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1235 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:43 pm

Pretty good model support for Willa to develop in another week or so.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1236 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:55 pm

I think this would be the first Vicente and Willa; don't think we have gotten that far down this particular list
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1237 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:58 pm

Well.another one in the same monsoon trough of 99E

Another trough of low pressure has developed within a large area of
disturbed weather that extends from Central America westward to
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
westward, near the coast of southern Mexico. Additional information
on the broad area of disturbed weather that extends from Central
America to south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1238 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:Well.another one in the same monsoon trough of 99E

Another trough of low pressure has developed within a large area of
disturbed weather that extends from Central America westward to
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
westward, near the coast of southern Mexico. Additional information
on the broad area of disturbed weather that extends from Central
America to south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

I wonder if this could be a redux of Ileana and John?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1239 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:59 pm

Well that was fast.Is now INVEST 90E.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1240 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:50 pm

Global models have been passively aggressive on some CPAC development. They all show a well defined tropical low/depression in about a week. Sill time left for another CPAC classic, which would increase the ACE count.
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