2018 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1241 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:58 pm

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1242 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:07 am

History is about to be made in the EPAC. 295.2 ACE now and will be passed momentarily.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1243 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:07 am

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1244 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:26 am

Now let's see how much more ACE units EPAC gets with Willa to be well over 300.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1245 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:31 pm

I'm with Eric Blake, hoping to see this Epac season go Greek. That would be neat!
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1246 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:22 pm

A small area of low pressure is located about 950 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable
for significant development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1247 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:12 pm

Willa becomes 10th major. ACE at 299.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1248 Postby StruThiO » Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:40 pm

Looks like there's an Invest 91E
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1249 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:35 pm

12z EC has Xavier or Yolanda active into November

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1250 Postby DioBrando » Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:11 pm

StruThiO wrote:Looks like there's an Invest 91E

...which is a complete nothingburger.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1251 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:06 pm

EPAC operationally now is over 300 units of ACE.

This is astonishing given not much happens above 30N unlike the other NHEM basins. Everything is pretty much deep tropics. And it's been a legit ACE per storm season. 10 Cat 4+.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1252 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:56 pm

Ntxw wrote:EPAC operationally now is over 300 units of ACE.

This is astonishing given not much happens above 30N unlike the other NHEM basins. Everything is pretty much deep tropics. And it's been a legit ACE per storm season. 10 Cat 4+.


What's also astonishing is that it turned out to be a hyperactive season, so soon after the 2014-2016 El Nino event. Does anyone know if 2014-2018 is the most ACE accumulated in a 5 year period?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1253 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:41 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:EPAC operationally now is over 300 units of ACE.

This is astonishing given not much happens above 30N unlike the other NHEM basins. Everything is pretty much deep tropics. And it's been a legit ACE per storm season. 10 Cat 4+.


What's also astonishing is that it turned out to be a hyperactive season, so soon after the 2014-2016 El Nino event. Does anyone know if 2014-2018 is the most ACE accumulated in a 5 year period?


The period from 1990-1994 averaged over 200 units per season. This period will be close but 2017 will probably let it down. Will need roughly 340 units to top that this season, just about within the realm of possible I suppose.

1990-1994 was a heck of a run, the lowest was 178!
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1254 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:52 pm

Today marks the 3 year anniversary of Hurricane Patricia, a spectacular nature phenomenon that we were extremely lucky to see in our lifetimes.

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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1255 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:41 am

00z GFS and GFS FV3 showing another strong CPAC classic in the long range:

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Euro and CMC are also on board with CPAC development in the long range.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1256 Postby Astromanía » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:10 pm

Seven systems landfalls this season, is that a record?
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1257 Postby Astromanía » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:13 pm

Kingarabian wrote:00z GFS and GFS FV3 showing another strong CPAC classic in the long range:

https://i.imgur.com/fcN7S8w.gif

Euro and CMC are also on board with CPAC development in the long range.

Another walaka? But I suppose this will be weaker, ACE this year is crazy
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1258 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:32 am

313 units so far now that Willa is done. GFS and Euro both show something in the EPAC. Xavier is the next name. If the system materializes 320+ units in the cards. The CPAC has been on and off on the guidance.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1259 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:48 am

GFS and ECMWF both have another hurricane south of Guerrero in early November.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season

#1260 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:55 am

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